Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice: JuJu Smith-Schuster (2023)

Let’s take a look at what to expect from JuJu Smith-Schuster as you prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season.

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Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice: JuJu Smith-Schuster (2023)

Here is our dynasty fantasy football outlook for JuJu Smith-Schuster.

JuJu Smith-Schuster 2022 Production

Team	Player	REC	TGT	YDS	Y/R	LG	TD	G	FPTS	Rank	FPTS/G
KC	JuJu Smith-Schuster	78	101	933	12.0	53	3	16	146.3	29th	9.1, WR42

Career Contextualization

JuJu Smith-Schuster was drafted in the second round by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2017 at age 20.

Despite starting the season buried on the depth chart, the USC product broke out his rookie year, catching 58 passes for 917 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

Expectations were high for Smith-Schuster after his first-year WR22 finish, and he delivered big-time. The Steelers’ inside receiver finished fifth with 1,426 receiving yards and fourth with 166 targets. The year two production awarded Smith-Schuster a WR9 finish, just five spots behind teammate Antonio Brown.

After two stellar seasons entering his 23-year-old season, Smith-Schuster was the no-doubt WR1 in across dynasty formats. He looked to be on an even higher upward trajectory when the Steelers moved on from Brown – setting the stage for Smith-Schuster to rise to WR1 alpha status.

After all, Smith-Schuster’s 494.6 PPR fantasy points through the first two years of his career ranked seventh all-time behind the elites like Odell Beckham Jr., Randy Moss, A.J. Green, Michael Thomas, Marques Colston, and Jerry Rice.

Alas, dynasty owners are still waiting for that to happen. The 2019 season was an utter wash, with Ben Roethlisberger lost for the season due to injury. Smith-Schuster also got hurt and set career lows across the board as a result.

The 2020 season was Smith-Schuster’s chance for a massive bounce back, but he delivered middling results despite high-end usage. He caught a career-high nine touchdowns and finished 15th in targets, but ended the season as the WR17.

He also was out-produced by two of his less experienced teammates, Diontae Johnson and rookie Chase Claypool. Johnson had more receiving yards and targets, while Claypool was more efficient on a per-target basis.

The 2021 season brought more disappointment for Smith-Schuster managers, as the Steelers wideout returned to a poor Steelers passing offense and battled through injuries that limited him to five games.

The 2022 season presented some new hope for Smith-Schuster. Landing on the Kansas City Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes’ potential No. 1 WR brought hype and increased fantasy value. However, yet again, Smith-Schuster’s production left a lot to be desired based on his lofty expectations heading into the year.

He commanded just an 18% target share as the WR28 overall and WR42 in points per game (9.1 in half-PPR). However, his numbers were drastically hindered by a mid-season injury along with just three receiving TDs. Smith-Schuster converted just one of his 15 red zone targets into a score in Weeks 1-17. Shockingly low when you consider the nature of the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.

Even so, it should be noted that Smith-Schuster still led the KC wide receiver room with 78 catches (18th) for 933 yards (23rd) in 16 games. Smith-Schuster’s yardage was the fourth-most among all WRs with fewer than four touchdowns. He was an integral part of the Chiefs’ short passing game – 11th-lowest aDOT – ranking 7th in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception (5.9), 12th in receiving EPA, and third in yards per route run on targets from 0-9 yards. The 26-year-old also played a crucial role in Super Bowl LVII, commanding a team-high nine targets (38% target share) for seven receptions and 53 receiving yards.

Current Situation

With a lackluster single-season campaign logged in KC, the Chiefs elected to not re-sign Smith-Schuster, allowing him to test the waters of free agency. The Patriots signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to an eerily similar deal with less guaranteed money than what Jakobi Meyers got from the Raiders (3 years, $33MM), to bolster a lackluster wide receiver room of Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, and Tyquan Thornton.

Smith-Schuster easily projects to take over the role vacated by Meyers in the slot, as the team’s favorite to lead the team in target share after a one-year stint in Kansas City. For comparison, Meyers averaged a 23% target share and 30% air yards share as the WR32 in half-point scoring last season — 10.6 fantasy points per game (WR28).

JuJu’s summer best ball ADP at WR50 seems far too cheap as the projected No. 1 WR for New England. His target share and air yards share should be substantially higher in the Patriots’ offense without a proper alpha. He will also likely see his slot role spike after playing a career-low 42% of his snaps from inside in 2022. Meyers played in the slot on 70% of his snaps last season.

The Patriots also have the most difficult schedule projected this season, which means we could see decent passing volume from a team facing negative game scripts.

General Prediction for 2023 and Rest of Career

For the first time in recent memory, Smith-Schuster doesn’t have high expectations from fantasy managers. His missed opportunity with the Chiefs has definitely left a sour taste in dynasty managers’ mouths. He’s currently the WR47 per FantasyPros’ Dynasty Trade Value Chart.

If Smith-Schuster stays healthy, he should be able to post fantasy low-end WR3 numbers as the No.1 target in an improved offense. Still, it’s important to note that with six years of NFL experience in the bank, I wouldn’t anticipate Smith-Schuster’s profile as a real-life No. 2 receiver to change for the remainder of his career. That’s not a death sentence for fantasy as we see beta WRs have productive seasons in certain situations. However, him being “the guy” that he flashed early on in his career is probably no longer in his range of outcomes.

That’s the case here with Smith-Schuster in 2023 and would be my expectation for him this upcoming season. He’s a floor play, that is pretty useful in formats that require four or even five starting WRs per week. As I noted in my advice articles for redraft snake drafts, there’s an “upside” to playing an every-down role on an offense albeit even an average one.

And for that reason, I’d be a buyer of Smith-Schuster at such a suppressed cost. He is still just 26 years old and will be under contract for the next three seasons. The Patriots’ offense is going to perform much better under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, which I don’t think is factored enough into Smith-Schuster’s cost. I was able to acquire JuJu for Jerick McKinnon straight up early this offseason in one of my dynasty leagues.