Rookie drafts may be winding down, but it’s important to not completely switch off from your dynasty league in the offseason. Now is a perfect time to take an honest appraisal of your dynasty team and consider its strengths and weaknesses ahead of the season. In this series of division-by-division Dynasty Primer, we’ll look at how each actual NFL team stacks up and what buying and selling opportunities might be appropriate.

A year ago, many looked at the AFC West and thought it could be THE division within football that would deliver huge swathes of fantasy points, but after Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen‘s injuries stunted the Chargers, the Raiders fell flat on their faces and the Broncos struggled to get out of neutral, it left the Chiefs doing their usual things under Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and everyone else looking on with jealousy. All four teams have made interesting moves this offseason, and as ever, there is plenty to decipher for dynasty purposes.

• Dynasty Divisional Primer: AFC North | AFC South | NFC North
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• Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
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Dynasty Draft Primer: AFC West Roundup & Trade Advice

Denver Broncos

After a disastrous first season with Russell Wilson as the Broncos quarterback, big changes were needed, and Sean Payton represents an excellent choice for Denver, even if he wasn’t their first or even second choice for the role. Payton has had plenty of success with a shorter quarterback during his time with Drew Brees, and if he can reign in some of Wilson’s bad habits, he might be able to turn him into a solid pocket passer. Payton made bolstering the offensive line a priority, signing several free agents before the draft, including top-of-the-market deals for Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers.

Wilson finished the 2022 season with a flourish, finishing as a top-five option in two of the last three games. According to Keeptradecut.com, Wilson’s dynasty value bottomed out in December, with him valued as the QB27, before climbing as high as QB17 when Payton was hired, before dropping back to mid-twenties after the rookies were added to the player pool. Wilson’s contract makes it likely that he has at least this year cemented as the starter but possibly more, and he could be viewed as an interesting buy-low candidate for rebuilding teams looking to embrace some risk.

At running back, the team sought to bolster the room as a priority, with Javonte Williams‘ torn ACL and LCL from October rumored to keep him out as much as the entire season potentially. Samaje Perine opted to sign with the Broncos despite having an identical contract offer from his former team, the Super Bowl-contending Bengals. Perine excelled in 2022, often being more efficient than Joe Mixon with 4.2 yards per carry to Mixon’s 4.0 and 26 missed tackles to Mixon’s 33, but on 110 fewer attempts.

If the Broncos are without Williams for an extended period, then Perine can be a three-down back, something he showcased last year with 7.6 yards per reception to Mixon’s 7.3. For any team looking to start strong, Perine is a viable trade candidate, while Williams can be considered for teams that are rebuilding and can afford to stash him for up to the entirety of 2023.

The Broncos seem to have flip-flopped on what to do with their wide receiver room all offseason, with continuous rumors floating that they would be willing to trade one or both of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, only for nothing to materialize and both players to still be with the team. The Broncos’ depth chart also includes Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, who have both flashed promise at times, as well as Sean Payton’s first draft selection, Marvin Mims. Jeudy finished the season strongly, and between weeks 11 to 17, Jeudy was the half PPR WR12 scoring 14.2 points per game at an average of 2.7 fantasy points per touch, which was equal to Justin Jefferson during that period.

The Broncos were struggling to stay on the field, and Jeudy had to be efficient. With upgrades to the coaching staff and offensive line, there is reason to think that the offense should be more competent in 2023, and Jeudy could be very good value. Sutton maintained similar stats with Wilson to those he’s averaged for most of his career, seeing a slight increase in receiving yards from 52.7 up to 56.7 and also seeing an increase from his career average of 6.4 targets per game to 7.0. Sutton had been someone many hoped could break out, but it might be time to consider that this is the level of performance he will give us year in and year out. Mims is the type of undersized deep threat that Payton loved in New Orleans and should be useful straight out the gate, particularly if Jeudy or Sutton is traded.

Greg Dulcich was as volatile as tight ends can be in rookie campaigns, with six games over 11 PPR points and six below 7.2. Dulcich displayed an ability to be used vertically as well as near the line of scrimmage, and he’s the favorite for fantasy relevance this year. It is noteworthy, though, that Albert Okwuegbunam is still on the roster, and the Broncos traded for Adam Trautman, who has a past with Sean Payton. Dulcich is valued at a 2024 mid-second-round pick, which feels like a fair price for a player with a volatile sample that could go either way in 2023.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is still the dynasty QB1 for many, and while there are arguments to be had in favor of Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, who possess greater ability in the running game, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who would argue strongly that Mahomes shouldn’t be the QB1. Mahomes has finished as a top-six quarterback in each of the last five years, with 32 top-five weekly performances in that time, averaging 4,606 passing yards per season and 37 touchdowns per year.

There is simply no reason to think Mahomes will fall off a cliff with his production, particularly after seeing him maintain it after the team traded away Tyreek Hill. Most trade value charts would tell you Mahomes’ value is the equivalent of two very high picks in rookie drafts, but you’d be hard-pushed to find anyone selling for less than three firsts plus another quarterback.

The Chiefs money-balled their way through 2022 at wide receiver, with no individual standing out, but periodically one of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Kadarius Toney or Skyy Moore popped up for useful weeks. Smith-Schuster is no longer with the team, and despite the team making very little in the way of additions, they say they are content and expect Toney to be the defacto WR1 behind Travis Kelce. Toney played six games in the regular season, flashing at times with 19.0 PPR points in his second game but only amassing a total of 23.6 in the other five games. Most dynasty managers who roster Toney believe in the upside enough that it’s difficult to pry him from them, and you’d be forced to give up an early second or higher to do so.

Valdez-Scantling averaged 41.3 yards per game but rarely flashed big play upside and, at best, should be considered a depth option for your bench. Skyy Moore never flashed any of the promise many hoped for, but with Smith-Schuster no longer on the team, there are opportunities to be had as Moore goes into his second year. Rashee Rice was drafted by the Chiefs in the second round, and that capital is noteworthy, but he is far from a finished prospect and likely needs a season to develop. With Valdez-Scantling likely on a different team in 2024, it might be worth playing the long game and rostering Rice with an eye for the future.

Isiah Pacheco will enter the season as the favorite for the RB1 role, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire falling out of favor having never delivered on his first-round status. Jerick McKinnon was brought back by the Chiefs and will no doubt have a pass-catching role at times, with the Chiefs having talked about how much they trust him, but at 31 years old, McKinnon is no spring chicken. Fantasy managers find it hard to trust running backs without much draft capital invested in them, but right now, Pacheco looks locked into that role for 2023, at the very least.

Travis Kelce is still a top-three dynasty tight end, no matter where you look at rankings, and there are no better options for win-now teams. If you can pry Kelce away for any less than a mid-first-round pick, then you’ve done well. Over the last three seasons, Kelce has averaged 11.0 top-five weekly performances per season, and there are few signs he’s slowing down.

Las Vegas Raiders

After nine years, the Raiders said goodbye to Derek Carr and replaced him with Josh McDaniel’s former Patriot colleague, Jimmy Garoppolo. Moving from Carr to Garoppolo is unlikely to have huge fantasy ramifications for the Raiders quarterback fantasy output, with both Garoppolo and Carr having finished as QB18 or worse in points per game, dating back as far as 2017. Garoppolo wasn’t especially relevant with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, and he’s unlikely to be here either. Garoppolo is a fine QB3 in Superflex leagues, with him available for a mid-late second-round pick, but dynasty managers should remember that the Raiders seemed very interested in the 2023 quarterback class and could easily revisit the situation again next year.

Josh Jacobs was franchise tagged by the Raiders, and there haven’t been many rumblings of an extension. It’s a curious decision by the team when you consider they are likely not to be contending and those resources could be spent elsewhere, but nevertheless, for fantasy Jacobs will have a clear runway to attempt to recreate last year’s RB3 performance which was a big leap from his previous career finishes in the mid-teens. Jacobs recently turned 25 and is a good bit younger than many running backs similar in cost (1.06-1.07 equivalent), but any buy of Jacobs is accepting that he may end up on a new team next year where he may have a lesser role. Behind Jacobs, the Raiders seem content with Zahmir White, the main backup, who showed very little when given the chance in 2022.

Davante Adams headlines a Raiders wide receiver room that gets very thin very quickly once you look past Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow. Adams produced in 2022 at a rate of 3.3 PPR points per touch, which was a career-high, outshining even his best years in Green Bay. What might be worrying for Adams in 2023 is that Garoppolo ranked 40th in deep ball completion rate last year among QBs with 50 or more attempts. Adams has averaged 27 deep targets per season over his last three years, while Garoppolo has averaged only 30 deep attempts per year in his last two seasons and has never surpassed 31. If Adams is going to maintain his fantasy output, it will likely involve being nearer the line of scrimmage, which will spell bad news for Vegas’s two slot receivers, Renfrow and Meyers.

After 2021 where Renfrow saw 7.7 targets per game, he returned to Earth with 4.9 bringing him back in line with his 2020 and 2019 average of 5.0 targets per game. There was talk that the Raiders could look to move on from Renfrow this offseason, but for now, he’s still on the team, and his dynasty value has plummeted to an early third-round pick. Meyers was a priority for the Raiders in free agency, which seems strange given Adams’ ability to play from the slot when called to, as well as Renfrow staying on the team. On the surface, it feels like Meyers and Renfrow will eat into each other’s work, as both average over 60% of their career snaps from the slot, and if Adams is retreating closer to the line of scrimmage, things could get very congested. If Renfrow should be moved on, then Jakobi Meyer’s outlook will become a lot rosier.

At tight end, the Raiders moved on from Darren Waller, trading him to the New York Giants and leaving a vacancy in their offense made even bigger by Foster Moreau also not returning for 2023. After Michael Mayer had been mocked as high as the mid-teens in many mock drafts, his fall to the second round was slightly surprising, but it could be to a great benefit for the Raiders, who now have a versatile tight end adept in the blocking game and catching the ball. Mayer is going in the early-to-middle parts of second rounds of rookie drafts, and if he can avoid the learning issues that plague many rookie tight ends, he could have fantasy relevance from day one, even if he’s unlikely to average much over eight PPR points per game as a ceiling in his rookie year. If you can afford to stash Meyer through his rookie year, his long-term outlook is great.

Los Angeles Chargers

The most important change the Chargers made this offseason might be moving on from offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and replacing him with Kellen Moore, who moved off from the Cowboys after differences of opinion with Mike McCarthy, which reportedly included wanting to pass the ball more often than McCarthy desired. Throwing the ball more is music to the ears of fantasy managers, and hopefully, it helps Justin Herbert to bounce back in 2023. Herbert struggled through a rib injury for much of the season that clearly hampered his ability to throw the ball downfield, and his average depth of target dropped to a career-low 6.4 yards per attempt. Herbert is still, however, a top-five dynasty quarterback and will be hard to acquire for any less than two high first-round picks.

Austin Ekeler‘s request to seek a trade was granted by the Chargers, but sadly for Ekeler, no team has come forward so far willing to give up assets for a soon to be 28 year old running back who wants a raise. Ekeler thrived in 2022, setting a career-best 6.5 targets per game, a dramatic increase from his 2019-21 average of 5.0 per game, as Justin Herbert’s low aDOT benefited Ekeler dramatically. Ekeler has now scored 18 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, and there seems little reason to think he won’t be a top fantasy asset in 2023 if he returns to the Chargers, even if he sees fewer dump-off targets with the wide receivers also healthier.

At wide receiver, the Chargers bolstered a strong wide receiver room by adding another big-bodied deep threat in Quentin Johnston. Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen struggled with injuries through 2022 which exasperated the Chargers’ offensive woes, and adding another high-ceiling wide receiver should offset those worries in 2023. For dynasty purposes, Allen’s value is depreciating with his age, and for non-contending teams, getting a mid-second-round pick now might be as good as it gets. Mike Williams is valued as a late first-round pick, and his contract suggests he’ll be with the Chargers and Justin Herbert for at least the next two seasons, keeping him viable at that cost. As long as the offense gets back on track, there should be plenty of deep shots to go around for both Johnston and Williams, while Allen is a target hog from the slot.

The Chargers opted not to draft a tight end in a talented class and will again roll out Gerald Everett and Donald Parham as their primary options. Parham has been an occasional red zone target but offered next to zero consistency, and Everett flashed at times with six double-digit PPR performances on his way to a career-best TE16 ranking in points per game. Everett averaged 8.6 PPR points in 2022, and while that isn’t spectacular, he only dipped below 7.8 on four occasions, which is a reasonable floor for a tight end. If you’re looking for a cheap option, Everett is available for a late third-round pick.

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