Rookie drafts may be winding down, but it’s important not to completely switch off from your dynasty league in the offseason. Now is a perfect time to take an honest appraisal of your dynasty team and consider its strengths and weaknesses ahead of the season. In this series of division-by-division dynasty primers, we’ll look at how each actual NFL team stacks up and what buying and selling opportunities might be appropriate.
The AFC South is a division in flux, with the Jaguars expected to continue to be one of the most potent offenses for fantasy purposes. At the same time, the Colts should be more fun under Anthony Richardson than with Matt Ryan. Meanwhile, the Titans have plenty of questions, not least at quarterback, and the Texans look set to have the best quarterback play they’ve had in years.
- Dynasty Divisional Primer: AFC North | NFC North
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Dynasty Draft Primer
Let’s take a look at our breakdown of the AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
It has been a bumpy and ineffective few years for the Colts since Andrew Luck retired, and forays into the veteran quarterback market have been disappointing. Yet, all of that will be quickly forgotten if Anthony Richardson lives up to his ceiling. Fantasy managers are all too aware of Richardson’s potential as a dual-threat, with him often going ahead of fellow rookies C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young in rookie drafts.
Head coach Shane Steichen recently said he believes Richardson needs to learn from playing time more than anything else. Which, after working with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts in the last few years, bodes well for Richardson. When it comes to dual-threat quarterbacks, we can have confidence in starting them for fantasy from day one. If you’re playing dynasty with a two or three-year window mindset, Richardson has had enough draft capital invested that we can be confident he’ll start the majority of games in that time, and his upside could be tremendous.
Jonathan Taylor came crashing back to Earth in 2022, finishing as the PPR RB19 in points per game a year after being the RB2 in points per game and RB1 in total points. Between weeks 3-8, Taylor had 76 rush attempts with no rushing touchdowns to show and averaged only 13 receiving yards per game, killing any fantasy manager’s hopes. Typically running backs working with a dual-threat quarterback see an increase in their efficiency due to defenders having to defend more options. However, the running backs also see fewer targets as the quarterbacks decline to check down and take off with the ball themselves instead. Taylor has averaged three targets per game over his three-year career. If that were to dip similar to what David Montgomery had with Justin Fields (2.7), then Taylor might sustain some top-tier value. But if it were to dip to a level similar to JK Dobbins with Lamar Jackson (1.4), then we’re in real trouble, particularly if Richardson steals some of the rushing touchdowns.
At wide receiver, the Colts lack depth and anyone of known quantity beyond Michael Pittman Jr., who could be in for a career season if he gets onto the same page as Richardson. Pittman Jr. enters his fourth NFL season, averaging 26.1% of team targets in the last two years, combining for 1,987 yards and eight touchdowns. 2022 didn’t deliver an explosive breakout like many hoped for. Still, Pittman Jr. has been a top-24 wide receiver for two years running. With a dynamic quarterback who can extend plays and will open up all areas of the field, Pittman Jr. should, at a bare minimum, sustain his production.
Behind Pittman Jr., rookie Josh Downs is the most valuable asset and displays the traits that will make him a must-watch player in 2023. Undersized, like many in this class, Downs is being viewed as a slot receiver, but his excellent route running and ability at the catch point should allow him to play outside too. For the cost of a mid-second-round pick in rookie drafts, Downs is an interesting player worth keeping on your Taxi squad for now. The Colts signed Isaiah McKenzie after his release from the Bills. It was a disappointing year where McKenzie failed to make the slot receiver role his or produce when he was given the opportunity. McKenzie will likely have to battle with Downs for playing time, and it’s hard to imagine McKenzie being a reliable fantasy asset.
Alec Pierce enters his second year with the Colts after a rookie year. Despite the turmoil as a rookie, he had two top-24 weekly finishes and 73 targets, of which 19% were classified as deep targets. Pierce is perhaps one of the more interesting names to acquire, with his value set at a late second-round pick.
At tight end, the Colts have many promising young athletic players, including Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods and Mo Alie-Cox. None appear to have a leg up on the others and any could be the more productive in a given week. This is a tight end room to avoid unless we hear any whispers that one in particular is standing out above the others.
Jacksonville Jaguars
In hindsight, it was rather obvious that the Jaguars would take a step forward once they had an actual grown-up in charge of the team instead of Urban Meyer. Doug Pederson was excellent at righting the shift and making good acquisitions in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who all turned in great fantasy seasons.
Trevor Lawrence‘s stock dipped as low as QB14, according to KeepTradeCut.com, during last offseason. The start of last season wasn’t overly consistent, but after their Week 11 bye, Lawrence was a top-six quarterback in four of the next five weeks. He averaged 23.5 fantasy points in the games he played fully between then and the end of the season. Lawrence was one of the best prospects to come out of college in a decade, and there is no reason to believe he can’t take another step forward with the surrounding talent.
The Jaguars added to their running back room by drafting Tank Bigsby, who can be a between-the-tackles, ground-and-pound type back that will perfectly complement Travis Etienne. Etienne wasn’t drafted by this regime, and when they did move on from James Robinson last season, Etienne went on to be the RB17 between Weeks 8 and 17, averaging 13.7 PPR points. During the playoffs, JaMycal Hasty out-snapped Etienne against the Chiefs, with 57% to 43%, so it’s not beyond imagination to consider that the Jaguars want Etienne to touch the ball a little less. Etienne is only 24 years old, and entering his third season in the NFL. If you’re not a contender, trading him for a mid-first-round pick seems sensible.
At wide receiver, the Jaguars added to a strong core of Kirk and Jones by trading for Calvin Ridley, who will add a true vertical threat to this offense. Both Kirk and Jones were excellent in 2022, with Kirk the WR13 and Jones the WR24. If you acquired them cheaply before their performances took off, then there is little reason to move them right now. Kirk plays predominantly from the slot, averaging 77% of his snaps from there in the last two years.
Meanwhile, Ridley has seen a deep target on 21.1% of his career targets and his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) has never been below 10. With Kirk’s being 8.8 in 2022, it’s entirely possible for both to succeed in this offense. However, it might come at the expense of Jones, who had 7.7 targets per game and 802 receiving yards. Both Kirk and Jones ran a route on over 90% of plays, and it feels inevitable Ridley will replace Jones on two-wide receiver sets. Both Kirk and Ridley are valued close to a late first-round pick, but Jones is valued closer to an early third, which could be an OK price if this offense continues to evolve.
Engram is set to play under the franchise tag as the two sides try to work out a long-term deal. Engram scored the second-most total PPR points of his career as he washed away the stench of Jason Garrett and Joe Judge’s Giants offense. He flourished down the stretch with 42 targets between weeks 13-17, trailing only TJ Hockenson and Travis Kelce. Simply put, Engram was a league-winner and deserves to be viewed as a top-12 tight end in dynasty formats. With that said, Engram had only three games over 15 PPR points, and the difference between him and the top tier of tight ends is still massive. If you can flip Engram and a second-round pick to get to Hockenson or Dallas Goedert, it will help you close the gap significantly.
Houston Texans
The Texans surprised many of us by making the sensible decision and drafting a quarterback with the second overall pick. C.J. Stroud should NFL ready after playing in Ohio’s excellent offense for the last two years, throwing for over 8,000 yards and adding 85 passing touchdowns. Stroud’s ability to stay calm in the pocket will be helped further by an offensive line that on paper looks to be a top-10 unit across the league. With Stroud adept at moving through his reads, even if the pass-catchers are sub-par, he should be able to keep the offense moving. Stroud’s never displayed a desire to use his legs throughout his college career, except for against Georgia when it was surprising to see him add 34 yards on the ground. If, for any reason, Stroud does rush more in the pros, it would certainly see his fantasy value increase.
At running back, Dameon Pierce survived the Draft without the Texans adding anyone of note to the backfield mix. Pierce’s main competition is now Devin Singletary, who signed a one-year $1.5m contract in free agency. Pierce flashed excellent upside in 2022 with five performances over 15 PPR points in the first eight weeks of the season before averaging 9.8 points for the rest of the season. Singletary being in Houston should allow Pierce to hold up a little better this season without as much pressure on his shoulders. Pierce’s dynasty price has been kept low by the fear that a running back drafted on day three could get replaced easily. Yet, so far, we’ve seen nothing from the Texans to suggest they plan on doing so. Pierce can be acquired for the cost of an early-second pick and some sugar on top. Given the outlook for him versus some of the rookie running backs, Pierce is an attractive trade candidate for win-now teams.
The Texans did little to bolster their wide receiver room before the Draft, with the most noteworthy addition being Robert Woods. However, he looked out of gas last year with the Titans and is now 31 years old. Unlike some receivers of a similar age, Woods looks like he’ll struggle to be an every-down player. John Metchie has recovered from Leukemia and could be a sneaky buy-low candidate after missing his entire rookie season. Metchie was picked at the top of the second round in a strong wide receiver draft. It’s possible the person with Metchie on their roster may not want to part with him after a year on their Taxi squad, but it’s worth considering with KeepTradeCut valuing him as a third-round pick.
Nico Collins has flashed at times but failed to be a consistent weapon in fantasy football, with six double-digit PPR games in two seasons with the Texans. The case for Collins would be that Stroud is by far the best quarterback he’ll have played with. Perhaps a third-year breakout could happen, particularly if Metchie also draws coverage. Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson were drafted by the Texans, with Dell taken in the third round and Hutchinson in the sixth. Dell, in particular, stands out for his ability to make explosive plays, but his size is far from ideal at 5 foot-8 and 165 pounds. This wide receiver room, as a whole, is best considered a place to gamble on cheap players that could flame out or could see their value increase. For rebuilding teams ready to embrace some risk, it’s a consideration.
The Texans seemed ready to admit that Brevin Jordan was never going to develop into a reliable pass-catching tight end when they signed Dalton Schultz in free agency. Schultz can potentially be Stroud’s new best friend as a reliable pass-catcher and above-average red zone weapon. With Schultz’s value as a late second-round pick, he might be a better option for 2023 than many of the rookie tight ends faced with an uphill struggle to produce in their first year.
Tennessee Titans
There are few teams in quite so much turmoil as the Titans find themselves in. This offense is centered around a 29-year-old running back and a quarterback they no longer see as the answer. Year after year, Mike Vrabel coaches up the Titans to an excellent level and gets more out of them than we’d expect. But can it really happen again? Ryan Tannehill has seen his clean pocket completion rate and big-time throw rate drop for four straight years, along with back-to-back seasons with less than 20 passing touchdowns. After scoring 16 rushing touchdowns in the three previous seasons, Tannehill scored only two in 2023. If Tannehill cannot fluff his fantasy numbers with rushing work, he falls off a cliff quickly and is no better than a bench warmer for superflex leagues where his value is, at best, a mid-second-round pick. Will Levis wasn’t deemed worthy of a first-round pick by the Titans, but they did trade up to secure him in the second. It seems inevitable that Levis will have a chance to make the starting job his at some point in the 2023 season.
Derrick Henry has seen his breakaway yards per game decline for three straight seasons. The best hope that he retains some fantasy value might be in the receiving game, where in 2022, he set career highs in targets per game (2.8) and receiving yards per game (26.5). Henry still retains enough value that he can be moved for an early second-round pick. With the warning signs there for all to see, it would be prudent to try sending him to a contending team. Tyjae Spears was drafted in the third round to lighten the load on Henry this year. It would be surprising if the Titans sat the rookie after spending Day 2 capital on Spears. The biggest question mark for Spears will be health, after suffering two torn ACLs so far in his playing career.
The NFL has no wide receiver room in as bad a state as the Titans. Their only receiver of note, Treylon Burks, was acquired with picks the Titans got for trading away AJ Brown. Burks overcame an offseason of talk about his asthma and general fitness levels to flash some brilliant upside. Yet, just as things started to click and he caught his first touchdown pass, he got knocked out of the game. Burks displayed enough ability to earn targets and produce with them that his value is still equivalent to the 1.10 in superflex rookie drafts. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has occasionally shown signs of life, but your roster likely has issues if you rely on him as a starter. It says everything about this Titans offense that the defacto WR2 is available for a late fourth-round pick.
At tight end, there is a ray of light in Chigoziem Okonkwo. Between Weeks 12-17, he had the third most yards per route run of any player in the league. Not just tight ends, but any player. The Titans were leaning into him, and he delivered and displayed great ability in the blocking game. With Austin Hooper not brought back by the team, it’s possible that Okonkwo can make the Titans tight end role his own for 2023. As a former wide receiver with a very athletic profile, Okonkwo is a fun player to put our chips on.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio