Here are wide receivers I’m avoiding in early fantasy football drafts. Check out my full rankings below to find other receivers I’m avoiding along with players I’m targeting in drafts.
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Fantasy Football Draft Players to Avoid
Michael Pittman failed to build upon his breakout 2021 season last year as he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game (2021 WR22), but there’s still reason to be optimistic about Pittman. Pittman was 17th in target share (25.6%) and nearly logged one of the quietest 100 reception seasons (99 receptions) in recent memory. He was 18th in red zone targets, first in total route wins, and third in route win rate, so the talent is still there for Pittman to finish with an even better 2023 season. With the team drafting Anthony Richardson, the biggest worry for Pittman now is passing volume. Even if he continues to draw targets at a strong rate, his target volume could hard cap his upside and lower his floor. Pittman is a WR3.
Chris Godwin had a productive 2022 in the shadow of his late-season 2021 ACL/MCL tear. Godwin was the WR15 in fantasy points per game as the Buccaneers’ insane passing volume elevated him. Godwin was 31st in target share (21.8%) and tenth in raw target volume (142) while only playing 15 games. The volume covered up his efficiency ugliness in 2022. He was neutered into being a low aDOT (5.6, 99th) receiver who also ranked 38th in yards per route run. Godwin was 96th in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets. He was 68th among 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Entering his age 27 season with uncertainty at quarterback (Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield…WOOF!) and in the passing volume department, Godwin is a scary WR3.
Without his “wide back” role and with the 49ers bottling him up as a check-down specialist again, Deebo Samuel struggled to a WR28 finish in 2022. He still drew a strong share of the 49ers’ passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but his aDOT was 4.2 (102nd), and he only saw five deep targets (108th) and 12 red zone looks (36th). Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. With the quarterback situation remaining unsettled in San Francisco in 2023 and the onus remaining on running the ball, Samuel will likely disappoint if you’re counting on WR2 production.
Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
ADP – Average Draft Position
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