The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and now it’s time for dynasty rookie drafts. Landing spots and draft capital have been determined, and we’re here with your dynasty rookie draft outlooks. Let’s take a look at what Derek Brown expects of Dalton Kincaid.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks & Predictions: Dalton Kincaid
Stats:
- 2022 (minimum 20 targets)
- Yards per route run: 2nd
- PFF receiving grade: 1st
- 2021 (minimum 20 targets)
- Yards per route run: 13th
- PFF receiving grade: 11th
- Career
- Utilized in the slot on 55.1% of his snaps in 2022
- Kincaid was third in missed tackles forced among tight ends last year.
Scouting report:
- Kincaid has special movement skills. He looks fluid through his routes with a quick snap at the top of his stem. Kincaid has excellent body control with above-the-rim skills. He is exceptional at high-pointing the ball, which will serve him well in the red zone in the NFL.
- Kincaid can win inline, in the slot, and on the perimeter. He has early and late separation skills that allow him to be flexed out to the boundary, even against man coverage. Last year, Kincaid was 13th in PFF receiving grade and Yards per route run against man coverage (minimum 10 man-coverage targets).
- He is a tackle-breaking steamroller in the open field. I’m not prone to comping rookie tight ends to future Hall of Famers, but Kincaid reminds me of Travis Kelce on film. His combination of route running, speed, and RAC ability evokes Kelce’s highlight reels in my head. He’s also a field-stretching weapon that can win vertically on the perimeter and down the seam. Kincaid was fifth in PFF deep receiving grade and 13th in deep Yards per route run among tight ends last year (minimum five deep targets).
- The biggest area of improvement for Kincaid is in the blocking department. He is religiously turned into a pretzel in pass protection. His after-the-catch nastiness displays the necessary play strength for Kincaid to grow as a blocker. His first punch is decent, but pass rushers have no issues standing him up and blowing him off his mark. Improvements on technique in the NFL can allow him to become a serviceable blocker, at least.
Player Comp: Travis Kelce
Dynasty Outlook: This sounds hyperbolic, but the Buffalo Bills gave Josh Allen his Travis Kelce. Kincaid has been a man crush of mine since I started diving through his metrics and film. Looking at the Bills’ tight-end depth chart could cause concern for dynasty GMs, with Dawson Knox having sizable guarantees until 2025. Knox and Kincaid can coexist in this offense as they will play different roles. Over the last two years, Knox has played 42-47.2% of his snaps in the slot, which will decrease dramatically with Kincaid in town. Knox was in line for 31.3-37.6% of his snaps during that stretch, which should bump higher. Knox has been a top-shelf run blocker and serviceable pass protector ranking eighth and 35th in PFF run and pass blocking grades last year (minimum 100 blocking snaps per PFF). Knox can be their new 12-personnel tight end, with Kincaid assuming primary passing down responsibilities in the slot. While Knox has been fantasy relevant since 2021, he’s never been a heavy target earner. He’s never sniffed a 14% target share or a target-per-route run rate above 17% as a full-time player. Kincaid should have no issues earning targets early, as the Bills didn’t have a player with more than a 25% target per route run rate that logged at least a 23% route run rate outside of Stefon Diggs. Kincaid should eat as the Bills’ big slot. Last year among all collegiate wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 slot targets, he was second in PFF receiving grade from the slot. If we pin this down to tight ends, Kincaid ranked third in slot Yards per route run (per PFF). Kincaid should be viewed as a first-round wide receiver because that’s what Buffalo views him as. After the run on wide receivers in the first round of this year’s draft, Buffalo played chess instead of checkers by selecting the “tight end” Kincaid. Kincaid is a first-round rookie draft pick that should come off the board immediately after the top four wide receivers.
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