The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and now it’s time for dynasty rookie drafts. Landing spots and draft capital have been determined, and we’re here with your dynasty rookie draft outlooks. Let’s take a look at what Derek Brown expects of C.J. Stroud.
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Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks & Predictions: C.J. Stroud
Stats:
- 2022 (minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 8th
- Adjusted completion rate: 57th
- Yards per attempt: 2nd
- Big-time throw rate: 10th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 9th
- Deep throw rate: 100th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 117th
- Pressured rate: 11th lowest
Scouting report:
- In 2021, Stroud was 10th in pressured adjusted completion rate and 12th in pressured PFF passing grade while facing the 16th-lowest pressure rate (23.8%, minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Stroud has quiet feet against pressure and can make plays outside of structure.
- Stroud has effortless velocity on his throws. He has plenty of arm strength to fit any throw into a tight window. His accuracy is also sound on the move.
- He can layer throws against zone coverage with the best of them. His film is littered with special throws to the boundary that take moxie to dial up. He has no issues testing man coverage and tossing it up for his receiver to win.
- Stroud will sometimes hang on his first read, but there’s plenty of film of him performing full-field reads. He moves through his progressions quickly to find the open receiver.
- As the collegiate stats will show, Stroud isn’t a rushing threat, but that doesn’t mean he’s a statue in the pocket. He has plenty of maneuverability in the pocket, which he uses exceptionally well. He steps up in the pocket when necessary to avoid rushers and can get outside of structure when necessary and deliver an accurate throw on the run. Stroud won’t be a “rushing quarterback” at the next level, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have the wheels to grab an easy 5-7 yards when the defense is offering it up.
Player Comp: Justin Herbert
Dynasty Outlook: After the smoke screen of the NFL Draft cleared, C.J. Stroud was drafted second overall to the Texans to become the pillar of their rebuild process. Houston added Juice Scruggs and Shaq Mason to an offensive line that allowed the 12th-lowest adjusted sack rate last year. This line should give Stroud time in the pocket in his rookie season. While the offensive line won’t be among the best in the league, it should be at least average. The same can be said for Stroud’s receiving weapons. A starting pass-catcher unit of Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz, and John Metchie or Tank Dell isn’t sexy, but it also isn’t a total dumpster fire. Woods’ box score numbers last year weren’t great, but if we dig deeper, he doesn’t look washed. Last year he was 15th in open rate (per ESPN), immediately behind Christian Watson. Stroud remains a top-three pick in Superflex rookie dynasty drafts.
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