NFC EAST

DAL – Who will be the RB2 behind Tony Pollard?

Last year Pollard had a breakout season. He was the RB7, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t as explosive or efficient, that didn’t stop him from having a productive fantasy season.

The veteran was the RB19, averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game. He also had 12 rushing touchdowns, the fifth-most in the NFL, despite missing two games because of injury. Zeke’s red zone work kept him fantasy relevant, as he had 13 goal-line touches last year compared to six for Pollard. However, the Cowboys released the former superstar running back this offseason.

Yet, Dallas didn’t make any significant moves to replace Elliott. They added Ronald Jones in free agency and spent a sixth-round pick on Deuce Vaughn. Therefore, some fantasy experts believe Malik Davis has the best shot at being the RB2 in Dallas.

The former undrafted free agent had only 38 rushing attempts last year as a rookie but averaged 4.2 yards per attempt and 2.1 yards after contact per rush. Furthermore, 7.9% of his limited rushing attempts went for 15 or more yards. Unless the Cowboys re-sign Elliott before Week 1, Davis is worthy of a late-round pick in all redraft leagues.

NYG – How much upside does Darren Waller have?

After having no fantasy value over the first few years of his career, Waller was a star in 2019. He was the TE3 that year, averaging 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, despite finishing 20th among tight ends with three receiving touchdowns.

However, Waller took his game to another level in 2020, setting career highs with 107 receptions on 145 targets for 1,196 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, all finishing in the top three among tight ends. Unfortunately, injuries have forced him to miss 41.2% of the games over the past two years.

Yet, his offseason trade to New York has fantasy players excited. However, they should temper expectations. Waller has struggled when on the field over the past two years. Since his career season in 2020, the veteran tight end has averaged only 8.8 fantasy points per game, 1.67 yards per route run, and scored a touchdown once per 27.2 targets.

While the Giants lack an alpha No. 1 wide receiver, the team has several solid options. Waller will be a top-seven tight end this year if he can stay healthy. But the chances of him being a top-three tight end this season at 31 years old are slim.

PHI – Which running back is the team’s RB1?

Miles Sanders had a career year in 2022. He was the RB13, averaging 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran running back set career highs in rushing attempts (259), yards (1,269), and touchdowns (11). Unfortunately, Sanders left in free agency this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Eagles signed Rashaad Penny and traded for D’Andre Swift. The two veterans will join Kenneth Gainwell in the Philadelphia backfield. However, which of the three is the Eagles’ RB1?

Unfortunately, Swift and Penny have struggled with injuries in their career, meaning neither can handle a featured role. Therefore, all three running backs will earn snaps. Yet, fantasy players shouldn’t forget about Jalen Hurts, especially around the goal line.

The superstar quarterback had 13 rushing touchdowns in 15 games last season, the second-most in the NFL. Swift has the most upside after finishing as a top-24 running back last year. He should only be better playing behind the Eagles’ elite offensive line.

WAS – Is Jahan Dotson a breakout candidate?

While Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave will be the top two second-year wide receivers drafted this year, Dotson is one of my favorite sleepers. Unfortunately, he missed five games as a rookie because of a hamstring injury.

However, he was productive before the injury, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the first four weeks. Furthermore, Dotson averaged 2.1 fantasy points per target in those four games while scoring four touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the nagging hamstring injury impacted Dotson’s play in his first three games back. However, the former Penn State star ended his rookie season playing well. Over the final five games of the year, Dotson averaged 4.2 receptions on seven targets for 68.8 receiving yards and 12.6 fantasy points per game.

Furthermore, the rookie led the team in targets during that span, seeing nine or more in two contests. Curtis Samuel started last year on fire and cooled off in the second half. Dotson will be the No. 2 wide receiver this season and has top-24 upside.

NFC NORTH

CHI – Could Justin Fields be the overall QB1?

After a frustrating rookie season, Fields began the 2022 season giving fantasy players headaches. He averaged only 16.8 pass attempts and 9.4 fantasy points per game over the first four weeks last year. However, things started to change in Week 5.

Fields was the QB5, averaging 24.1 fantasy points per game from Week 6 through the end of the season. Furthermore, his passing productivity improved, as the quarterback averaged 22.8 pass attempts per contest. More importantly, Fields’ rushing ability made him a fantasy superstar.

The second-year quarterback averaged 90.8 rushing yards per game from Week 6 through Week 15 before injuries forced Fields to the bench. Furthermore, the superstar had seven rushing touchdowns during that span.

Some are worried the quarterback won’t run as much this year because of all the new pass catchers. However, 78.7% of Fields’ rushing attempts last year were on scrambles. While the new weapons will help cut back on the needed scramble attempts, the star quarterback should see an uptick in designed runs. Will Fields be the QB1 in 2023? Maybe. Can he be? Absolutely.

DET – Can David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs co-exist?

Last year the Lions had a talented 1-2 punch at running back with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Unfortunately, Swift couldn’t stay healthy, leading to Williams having a career year in 2022. Yet, Williams was the RB8 last year, while Swift was the RB22.

However, neither player will be with the team in 2023. Instead, Montgomery and Gibbs will replace the two veterans. Can Montgomery and Gibbs be better for fantasy players?

Detroit lacks proven pass catchers outside Amon-Ra St. Brown, meaning Gibbs will see a healthy target share as a rookie. Meanwhile, Montgomery has been the lead back most of his career and had a top-five fantasy finish in 2020.

More importantly, Dan Campbell was on the New Orleans coaching staff in 2017 when Mark Ingram was the RB6, while a rookie Alvin Kamara was the RB3. While the Detroit duo won’t be that successful, fantasy players should expect Campbell to use his running backs similar to how the Saints did in 2017.

GB – Who can fantasy players trust?

The last time the Packers had a Week 1 starting quarterback other than Rodgers was in 2007. That was three presidents ago, and Twitter was a year old. However, Jordan Love is now the starter in Green Bay. Unfortunately, the Packers’ offense is full of unknowns this year.

Love’s only career start came in 2021. He started in Week 9 against the Chiefs, throwing for only 190 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. Meanwhile, the team’s receiving core has drastically changed over the past two years.

Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Randall Cobb are no longer with the team. Meanwhile, Christian Watson is the most established wide receiver on the roster. Furthermore, the Packers have spent eight draft picks over the past two years on wide receivers and tight ends.

Watson and Romeo Doubs flashed potential as rookies. However, the addition of Jayden Reed changes the equation. More importantly, how much can Matt LaFleur put on Love’s plate? The receiving core has upside but also comes with risk. Aaron Jones is the only Packer fantasy players should feel confident drafting.

MIN – Is Jordan Addison the top rookie wide receiver?

While Justin Jefferson is arguably the top wide receiver in the NFL, the Vikings had a significant need at wide receiver. Then their need became more critical after the team released Adam Thielen for salary cap purposes. Last year Jefferson led the NFL with 128 receptions on 184 targets for 1,809 receiving yards.

Meanwhile, Thielen was the only other Viking with over 90 targets and 650 receiving yards last season. While K.J. Osborn had a solid year, he won’t keep Addison from replacing Thielen as a rookie.

However, does that make the former USC star the top rookie wide receiver in redraft leagues this year? Over the past three seasons, Thielen has averaged nearly seven targets per game.

More importantly, Addison gives the team more options than the aging Thielen. The rookie averaged nearly three yards per route run last season. Furthermore, he was at his best downfield, posting a 99.2 receiving grade from PFF on throws 20 or more yards downfield at USC.

NFC SOUTH

ATL – Will Kyle Pitts be a bust again this season?

When the Falcons used the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Pitts, he was made the dynasty TE1 by most fantasy analysts. He had an impressive rookie year. Despite having only one receiving touchdown, Pitts was the TE7, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

More importantly, he had over 1,000 receiving yards, making him and Mike Ditka the only two tight ends with over 1,000 receiving yards in their rookie season. Unfortunately, Pitts struggled last year without Matt Ryan.

Atlanta traded away Ryan last offseason and replaced the veteran with Marcus Mariota. Some will argue that the tight end spent too much time blocking instead of running routes. However, Pitts only pass-blocked on 6.3% of his snaps last season. He ranked 13th among tight ends with over 55 targets last year in that category, only half a percent less than George Kittle. Instead, the issue was Mariota’s poor passing.

Pitts had only a 59.3% catchable target rate in 2022, one of the worst in the NFL. Furthermore, Mariota completed only 23.5% of his pass attempts over 20 yards last year. Thankfully, the veteran is now an Eagle and far away from the star tight end.

CAR – Is Miles Sanders an RB1?

The Panthers have seen their backfield drastically change over the past year. After trading away Christian McCaffrey at the deadline, D’Onta Foreman turned into one of the running backs in the NFL. He averaged 19 rushing attempts for 87.7 yards and 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his first six games without McCaffrey on the roster. The former Longhorn was the RB10 during that span.

Furthermore, Foreman had five games with over 20 rushing attempts last season. However, he joined the Bears this offseason after the Panthers signed Sanders.

Last year Sanders accounted for 70.4% of Philadelphia’s backfield rushing attempts and 61.1% of their touchdowns. Furthermore, he was the RB13, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. The veteran running back had 259 rushing attempts for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns, all career highs. However, he had only 20 receptions on 26 targets for 78 receiving yards and zero touchdowns, all career lows.

Meanwhile, Frank Reich took over as the head coach this offseason. Running backs averaged 116.5 targets per season in four full seasons that Reich was the head coach in Indianapolis. Fantasy players should expect Sanders to have a career year on the ground and in the passing game.

NO – Can Juwan Johnson be a top-five tight end?

Over the first two years of his career, Johnson had only 32 targets. Yet the wide receiver turned tight end had four receiving touchdowns in 2021 on only 13 receptions. However, Johnson saw his role on offense increase last season.

The third-year tight end had 43 receptions on 65 targets for 508 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, all career highs. Furthermore, Johnson finished first on the team in receiving touchdowns, second in receiving yards, and third in receptions and targets.

The emerging star finished 15th in the NFL with seven receiving touchdowns last season. More importantly, Johnson finished third among tight ends, only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle.

Meanwhile, he could be the No. 2 pass catcher this year behind Chris Olave, as Michael Thomas is arguably the most prone wide receiver in the league. After ending last year as the TE7, Johnson only needs a few extra snaps a game to finish in the top five in 2023.

TB – How much upside does Rachaad White have?

When the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette earlier this offseason, White became a popular dynasty trade target. Then his fantasy value took off after the team didn’t spend any draft picks on a running back. However, how much upside does the second-year running back have in 2023?

Last year he was the RB38, averaging 6.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing under 40% of the snaps. Yet, the rookie had a productive fantasy performance in his lone start last season.

White averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and scored 15.4 fantasy points in that game. Yet, nearly 60% of his fantasy production came in the passing game, as the rookie caught all nine targets for 45 receiving yards.

Meanwhile, he forced a missed tackle on less than 11% of his rushing attempts. Furthermore, White lacks big play ability. He had only 6.2% of his rushing attempts last year go for 10 or more yards. While the second-year running back should have a featured role, his inefficiency limits his upside.

NFC WEST

ARI – What should fantasy players make of James Conner?

The veteran running back has been a consistent player for fantasy players. Conner has averaged at least 11.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in every season over the past five years. Last season he missed four games because of injury.

Yet, Conner was the RB20, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game despite missing nearly a quarter of the season. Furthermore, he stepped up his play in the second half, especially after Kyler Murray suffered a torn ACL.

After averaging only 8.7 fantasy points per game over the first five weeks, Conner was much better following the rib injury. The veteran was the RB5 over the final seven weeks of the fantasy season, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Conner averaged 21.3 touches per game over those seven weeks, scoring at least 12.4 fantasy points in every contest.

Meanwhile, Arizona didn’t add a running back in free agency or during the NFL Draft. According to Underdog Fantasy, the veteran has an ADP of 84.3 and is the 27th running back off the board. Conner is a steal at that price.

LAR – Should Cooper Kupp be the first wide receiver drafted?

Unfortunately, the Los Angeles offense was a disaster last season. However, Kupp remained a fantasy superstar. The former third-round pick was the WR24, averaging 18.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing half the season. Kupp would have been the WR1 if he didn’t suffer the season-ending high ankle sprain. Furthermore, he was the WR1 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 0.3 more per game than Justin Jefferson.

More importantly, the Los Angeles star would have been the only wide receiver to average over 20 fantasy points per game in 2022 if you remove the matchup where he suffered the season-ending injury.

Meanwhile, Kupp was on pace to have similar numbers last year as in 2021 before the injury. He would have scored 345.1 fantasy points over a 17-game pace using his first eight-game averages. In 2021, Kupp had 367 fantasy points, only 1.3 more fantasy points per game than his 17-game pace in 2022.

The Rams traded away Allen Robinson and waited until the fifth round of the NFL Draft to add a wide receiver. Kupp should be the favorite to lead the league in targets this year. More importantly, the superstar should be a top-two wide receiver drafted in every redraft league.

SF – Is Christian McCaffrey worthy of the 1.01 pick?

McCaffrey has an ADP of 3.4 on Underdog Fantasy but is the first running back drafted on average. However, should he be? The superstar has dealt with injuries over the past few years. McCaffrey played in only 30.3% of the contests in 2020 and 2021.

Meanwhile, McCaffrey was unstoppable once he joined the 49ers. After his first game with the team, the superstar was the RB1 over the rest of the regular season, averaging 20.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

However, there is a concern with the superstar running back that few are talking about. Elijah Mitchell only played four games during the regular season with McCaffrey because of an injury. Yet, the superstar averaged 15 touches and 13 fantasy points in those four contests. By comparison, McCaffrey averaged 23.5 touches and 25.5 fantasy points per game in the six contests without Mitchell.

Is the split enough to keep fantasy players from drafting the superstar with a top pick? Absolutely not, especially given Mitchell’s injury history. Unfortunately, the splits are concerning.

SEA – Can Geno Smith do it again?

The 2022 season was full of surprises, but Smith was the biggest one. After spending most of his career as a backup, the veteran was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks last season. He was the QB5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game, a career-high.

Smith had 4,282 passing yards and 30 touchdowns last year, finishing top eight in the NFL in both categories. Furthermore, the veteran quarterback was fairly consistent for fantasy players, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in 64.7% of the games last season.

More importantly, Seattle did everything possible to help Smith have another successful year. They didn’t draft a quarterback, despite all the speculation. Instead, the Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the NFL Draft, giving the quarterback an excellent trio of wide receivers.

Seattle also spent two mid-round picks on the offensive line. Will Smith have another top-five finish this season? Maybe not, but the veteran quarterback has everything he needs to be a QB1 in 2023.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.