The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and now it’s time for dynasty rookie drafts. Landing spots and draft capital have been determined, and we’re here with your dynasty rookie draft outlooks. Let’s take a look at what Derek Brown expects of Bijan Robinson.
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Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks & Predictions: Bijan Robinson
Stats:
- 2022 (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 11th
- Breakaway rate: 60th
- PFF elusive rating: 6th
- PFF receiving grade: 19th
- Yards per route run: 21st
- 2021 (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets)
- Yards after contact per attempt: 18th
- Breakaway rate: 88th
- PFF elusive rating: 3rd
- PFF receiving grade: 86th
- Yards per route run: 43rd
- Career
- College dominator: 86th percentile
- College target share: 77th percentile
Scouting report:
- Bijan Robinson is a beautiful combination of speed and power. He can beat you in a variety of ways as a rusher. His pristine vision marries well with his efficient footwork and an extensive tool bag of moves. Robinson can jump cut or break out a spin move leaving a defender in the dust, or he can use his powerful lower half to drop the hammer.
- Robinson breaks tackles like he’s playing against junior high defenders. He looks like he’s playing on a different level slicing through and mowing defenders down easily. Robinson is a scheme-versatile back. He has the strength to excel in a downhill gap scheme and the juice to plant and go on outside zone runs.
- If Robinson wasn’t so talented, his 2022 could have looked quite different. The Texas offensive line was a trainwreck in 2022. They dropped from 13th and 43rd in stuff rate and power success rate (per Football Outsiders) to 45th and 90th. Robinson had to face skinny running lanes, multiple defenders in his face at the second level, and free rushers on many runs.
- Robinson is a dependable three-down weapon. He is a wheel route demon with speed to separate from linebackers and a pair of soft mitts. Robinson showed growth in the passing game in 2022, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and 21st in Yards per route run (minimum 20 targets, per PFF).
Player Comp: Ezekiel Elliott with softer hands
Dynasty Outlook: Robinson is one of the best running back prospects since Saquon Barkley hit the NFL. Arthur Smith and the Falcons wasted no time during the draft affirming this fact by selecting Robinson eighth overall. Robinson should be the engine that makes that offense go. He should have no issues racking up volume or finding open running lanes with the Dirty Birds. Atlanta was second in neutral rushing rate and first in red zone rushing rate last year. The Falcons were also tops in PFF’s run-blocking grade in 2022. Robinson should be the locked-in 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts regardless of format.
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