It’s hard not to think of JJ Zacharison when the term late-round QB is brought up. JJ made the strategy mainstream several years ago when he hypothesized that taking a quarterback early wasn’t worth the opportunity cost when drafters aren’t always good at identifying the quarterbacks who will separate from the field. Whilst the quarterback position has changed quite substantially over the last ten years, there are elements of the original theory that still hold strong for 2023.

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In 2022 four of the top six quarterbacks in ADP had positive advance rates on Underdog, where 16% is the baseline.

We can see from the chart above that while Josh Allen did do well at a cost of a third-round pick, he didn’t separate from either Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, who were drafted in the fifth and sixth rounds. Jalen Hurts advanced at the highest rate of any QB drafted 50 times or more, with Allen coming in at the fifth-highest rate.

Looking back to 2021 at the top six quarterbacks, we can see that only two had an advance rate above average (16.67%).

Whilst several of the quarterbacks who underperformed in the last two years dealt with injuries, it would be naive of us to rule out injuries happening in the future. In best ball, we should be building rosters that can cope with injuries wherever possible. Unfortunately, the opportunity cost of taking such an early quarterback can often be the kiss of the death to a roster should they get injured. Teams may score well enough to progress to tournament stages but then fail to beat other super teams in the playoffs. Looking back at historical data on FFPC best ball teams, only four quarterbacks with an ADP inside the first five rounds have had an above-average (8.6%) win rate during 2017-2021.

In previous years we’ve seen players like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen become cheat codes at the position when taken with later-round picks, and that was replicated by both Jalen Hurts in the sixth round and also by Justin Fields, who was drafted in the 11th round. We knew that Fields had elite athleticism, but question marks remained over how historically awful the Bears’ offense looked on paper. As a result, Fields ADP slipped below where he was drafted in 2021 contests. Fields went on to be the QB5 and had the sixth-highest advance rate. These are the classic late-round types fantasy managers have profited well from in recent years.

But 2022’s Late-Round QB prowess didn’t stop there. Geno Smith (QB8), Daniel Jones (QB9), and  Jared Goff (QB14) all had tremendous seasons and finished inside the top ten in advance rates. With the classic Late-Round QB-type prospects being driven higher up, we have to expand the idea of what a 2022 Late-Round QB looks like and include other archetypes. Geno Smith’s ADP was subdued by a possible QB competition with Drew Lock, which in hindsight, looked obvious that he would win the job. His upside case involved DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett producing, and they dutifully did so. Daniel Jones has shown us he had a rushing floor, and free of the likes of Joe Judge and Jason Garrett, we could have expected more from him. Jared Goff, meanwhile, has one of the league’s best offensive lines and a slew of offensive weapons that make his life easy.

The chart below shows quarterback scoring plotted against their ADP. After the QB7 in ADP, no quarterbacks managed to score over 20 points per game, but nine managed over 17 points per game. Meanwhile, the cluster of QBs near 100 in ADP (Carr/Rodgers/Stafford) all struggled to return any value. This was an area that was particularly fruitful in 2021 when Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady all paid off handsomely around there.

In best ball, it will never be enough to draft just one quarterback. Instead, we’re looking for a collection of quarterbacks that can give us the highest possible score at the position without draining our draft capital which could be spent elsewhere. The true value of the Late-Round QB in best ball appears to be in landing on the perfect QB2 or QB3 of your roster. For reasons laid out in this article, it should be clear that predicting these breakouts isn’t always easy, which is why it can pay off to approach drafts differently and look to gain exposure to different players. In the last two years of Underdog Best Ball Mania waiting too long for your first quarterback has resulted in negative advance rates consistently.

This doesn’t mean that quarterbacks later on in drafts have no value, but we can’t have overconfidence in them at the expense of the earlier ones. There is an art to roster construction, and all too often, it is about having the right mix of quarterback room that sees a team do well. Late Round QB as an individual idea isn’t dead, but in best ball the late-round quarterbacks need pairing with earlier quarterbacks who are capable of elite weeks in order to pay off. Identifying those with promising situations as we talked about earlier, is where our late-round picks should go.

If you plan on drafting your first quarterback beyond 100 in ADP, you need a clear plan for the options that will complement them. If you take Kenny Pickett, then be looking to come back in the next round and pair him with Mac Jones. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that both quarterbacks have positive touchdown regression in 2023 and could pay off their ADP. After selecting those two, I would aim to take a player with much greater upside to round out my quarterback selections. Two-quarterback builds are no longer viable this late in the draft, and three is the bare minimum to leave a draft with if you’ve waited this late to take your first.

If you draft an elite quarterback in the early rounds, you’ll need them to pay off week in and week out for your roster to succeed. As such, the type of late-round pairing you should look for is the solid and steady starter who might give you a lower score when called upon but will keep your team from putting up a zero that week. In 2022, pairing an elite QB with one of Geno Smith, Jared Goff, or Daniel Jones was a winning formula. As ever in best ball, being fluid with our thinking in drafts is essential. Keeping an eye on our opponent’s builds, specifically at the quarterback position, in this case, will help us to determine how long we can wait. If you’re struggling to decide on a quarterback in the later rounds, don’t be afraid to reach slightly to complete a stack. The cost of reaching on ADP can be outweighed by the value of the stack.

Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

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