Best Ball Season is well and truly upon us, and every year the game grows, the wider public becomes more savvy with their drafting. Between the many micro-strategies of best ball, it’s clear that they have stronger chances of advancing than simply trying to ‘pick the best players’ without a roster structure, and each year we see different draft strategies shine through. Check out our Best Ball Guide for in-depth articles about all the best ball strategies and their historic performances.

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Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Dual RB (2023 Fantasy Football)

Dual RB, or as it’s sometimes referred to ‘Bimodal RB,’ is a strategy that appeals to many, with the idea simply to take two running backs with your first two, or at the maximum, three picks and then eases off the position until the double-digit rounds, or at the very least Round 7 onwards.

Unlike Zero RB or Robust RB, Dual RB is less extreme, allowing you to take some of the early running backs with elite upside but without dedicating too many resources to the position at the detriment of other areas on your roster.

Elite running backs get pushed up draft boards year in and year out because the difference in what they can deliver compared to the rest of the position is truly noteworthy. The three-down workhorses are becoming less and less common in the NFL, so the feeling is that it’s worth paying up for those that possess that role. In the graph below, we can see how, in 2022, the later you selected a running back, the greater the chances were that they put up fewer points per game. Only two running backs selected outside the top 50 in average draft position (ADP) averaged over 15 half points per reception (PPR) points per game in 2022.

The idea is that we’ve secured our top-tier running backs early, so now we can focus on other positions, with one of the main benefits being we will bypass the running back dead zone before taking more backs later on.

In 2022 with public awareness greater than ever of the running back dead zone, many running backs were pushed above or below Rounds 3-6, where we typically think of the dead zone, resulting in only ten running backs being drafted there, compared with 14 in 2021. From that group of ten running backs, only four had positive advance rates to the Best Ball Mania playoffs, and two of those came from Round 3 players who perhaps belonged in Round 2 in hindsight.

Meanwhile, in Rounds 7 and 8, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce and Miles Sanders all crushed their expectations. Furthermore, in 2021, Round 7 onwards was an area of the draft where you could pick up James Conner and Leonard Fournette, who were standout league winners when all was said and done. So we can see that routinely, good value running backs can be found in that range.

If we have avoided the running back position for several rounds, it should leave us with a roster with at least a couple of wide receivers and potentially an elite tight end or quarterback. As the difference at the top of both positions becomes more pronounced, it becomes clearer and clearer that winning rosters should aim to have them where possible. Over the last two years, rounds 3-6 have been home to wide receiver breakouts from Cooper Kupp in 2021 (ADP – 44), Ja’Marr Chase also in 2021 (ADP – 71), along with Jaylen Waddle in 2022 (ADP – 49) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP – 63). So while wide receivers have broken out from this range, running backs have given middling performances or floundered completely and been outshone by the running backs available later on.

Dual RB Performance

Historically speaking, Dual RB has been quite hit-and-miss in its performance year after year. This is in part down to the difficulty of threading the needle with your running back selections. Running backs get injured at a higher rate than wide receivers due to the bruising nature of their role, and it’s not uncommon to see running back performances vary greatly from year to the next. In 2021 pairing Jonathan Taylor with Austin Ekeler in the first two rounds was an excellent strategy, but if you went back to the well in 2022 and tried to pair Jonathan Taylor with a round 2 running back such as Alvin Kamara, Javonte Williams or Leonard Fournette, you were likely dead in the water before you’d even made a third pick.

In FFPC Classic leagues, which are 28 rounds and feature defense and kickers as well as the usual positions, Dual RB starts have been historically strong over the last six years, dating back to 2017. Like most strategies, the key is to not dedicate too many resources to the position after you’ve paid up for two expensive running backs. The win rate is 8.6% on average, so anything scoring above that is a positive result.

(Data via Rotoviz FFPC Roster Construction Explorer)

Meanwhile, on Underdog, in the half PPR format they utilize, Dual RB has had mixed results.

(Data via Rotoviz Underdog Roster Construction Explorer)

With an average advance rate being 16.7%, it’s clear that this strategy is right around average over the last two years when selecting either five or six running backs total. While accepting that this strategy isn’t necessarily helping you advance a lot of teams, it’s worth pointing out that we’re chasing the upside of what can happen when you do advance a team with two stud running backs on.

In 2022 Pat Kerrane took down the $2 million top prize in Best Ball Mania thanks to a team with both Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler as part of a Dual RB start. Kerrane utilized a two-RB start before avoiding the position for a while, hitting on Rhamondre Stevenson later on and then taking five running backs in total.

Still holding down first. Will be on @ShipChasing tomorrow night to sweat the the final game. pic.twitter.com/ulSZQam1oT

— Patrick Kerrane (@PatKerrane) January 2, 2023

Because this strategy didn’t advance at a massive rate above average, when Kerrane was in the playoffs, he didn’t face many teams with the same Barkley-Ekeler pairing as himself. This allowed him to progress easier and ultimately win it all.

Like all strategies, the key is to hit on the right types of running backs and other players when utilizing the strategy, and for every team like Kerrane’s, there will be many that don’t succeed due to performance regression or injuries. For those that do make it to the playoffs, a huge upside is potentially waiting.

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