There are many factors to consider for the value of incoming rookies. For instance, draft capital, landing spot and collegiate production are worthwhile considerations when ranking rookies in best ball. The most exciting options have a blend of all three notable factors, and the following four incoming prospects check those boxes, making them rookies to target following the NFL Draft.
Best Ball Rookies to Target
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): 37.1 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
Gibbs was the second running back selected in this year’s NFL Draft. Further, he was the 12th pick overall and Detroit’s first selection. So, the Lions prioritized taking him. Additionally, the pre-draft consensus had Gibbs lasting until the 28th pick. The pick was shocking to many fans and pundits. Yet, it reinforces the point the Lions wanted him in their offense after a productive final season in college.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gibbs had 151 rushes for 926 yards (6.1 yards per carry), seven rushing touchdowns, 38 missed tackles forced and 3.39 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) for Alabama last year. His rushing numbers were rock-solid.
Gibbs’ best work is through the air, though. Per PFF, out of 119 FBS running backs targeted at least 20 times, Gibbs was sixth in PFF’s receiving grade, tied for fifth in targets (52), fifth in receptions (44), third in receiving yards (444), tied for 22nd in yards per reception (10.1), ninth in Yards per Route Run (1.83 Y/RR) and second in missed tackles forced (19). The pass-catching whiz also showed alignment versatility, playing 33 snaps in the slot and 44 wide.
Gibbs will share rushing work with free-agent addition David Montgomery. However, the rookie should receive a heavy dose of pass-catching opportunities in an offense lacking established weapons behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Gibbs is a good option at his average draft position (ADP) at Underdog Fantasy. However, he’s an even more inviting pick on DraftKings at an ADP of 35.8 as of May 9 since they have a full-point point-per-reception (PPR) scoring format compared to Underdog Fantasy’s half-point PPR format.
Devon Achane (RB – MIA): 111.2 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
The Dolphins and head coach Mike McDaniel clearly value speed, and Achane has it in spades. As a result, Achane was the sixth running back chosen in this year’s NFL Draft. He avoided falling to the draft’s third day when the Dolphins picked him 21st in the third round (84th overall). Achane was one of only four picks by the Dolphins. Adding more context, he was Miami’s second selection, and their final two picks were 197 and 238 overall. So, they clearly prioritized adding him to their roster.
Despite Achane’s small stature (5-foot-9 and 188 pounds), he toted the rock 196 times for 1,110 yards (5.6 yards per carry), eight rushing touchdowns, 53 missed tackles forced and 3.60 YCO/A last year. Achane also earned PFF’s 25th-highest rushing grade out of 168 FBS running backs with at least 100 rush attempts in 2022. Furthermore, Achane had 44 targets, 36 receptions, 196 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. However, he had only 0.66 Y/RR and his average depth of target (-0.6 aDOT) was behind the line of scrimmage.
Achane doesn’t profile as a bell-cow running back. Still, he can carve out a meaningful role in Miami’s backfield. The Dolphins are running it back with Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and Myles Gaskin. None of the three backs is an elite do-it-all back. Finally, McDaniel is from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and they haven’t been shy about feeding speedy running backs who fail to tip the scales. For instance, Mostert, Matt Breida and Elijah Mitchell are smaller backs, albeit not as small as Achane. Fortunately, Achane’s big-play speed can give him playable performances on only a few touches, and gamers in best ball don’t have to guess which weeks those will occur.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF): 117.6 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
The Bills selected a new weapon for Josh Allen and the passing attack. They picked Kincaid, making him the only tight end chosen in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft. And the Bills traded up to pop him.
The Utah product’s bread is buttered as a pass-catching weapon. In fact, he had PFF’s highest receiving grade among FBS tight ends and wideouts targeted at least 40 times last season. In 12 games, Kincaid had 93 targets, 70 receptions, 890 receiving yards, 2.42 Y/RR, 5.7 Yards After the Catch per Reception (YAC/REC), 16 missed tackles forced and eight receiving touchdowns. He also had a knack for fighting for the football, reeling in nine contested catches on 18 contested targets. And while he’s a tight end, it’s not a stretch for him to be described as a jumbo wideout. Kincaid played 55.1% of his passing snaps in the slot, 35.4% inline and 9.5% wide in 2022.
Buffalo was so desperate for ancillary weapons last year that they got the band back together, signing Cole Beasley and John Brown late in the regular season. Stefon Diggs was the only consistent pass-catching threat for the Bills. Meanwhile, Gabriel Davis failed to build on his electrifying performance in the Divisional Round playoff game against the Chiefs but was second on the team in targets (93), receiving yards (836) and touchdown receptions (seven) and tied Dawson Knox for second in receptions (48). So, there’s a viable path for Kincaid emerging as Buffalo’s second-most targeted pass-catcher down the stretch of the fantasy season. As long as his ADP doesn’t climb higher than the ninth round, he’s a desirable option in best ball.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB): 183.0 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
Reed was the sixth receiver picked in this year’s draft after he wasn’t projected to go in the first two rounds by the consensus. He was the 19th pick in the second round (50th overall) and Green Bay’s third prospect added in the NFL Draft. They spent the 13th pick on the defensive side of the ball and chose tight end Luke Musgrave with the 11th pick in the second round (42nd overall).
Reed’s penultimate college season was his best. In 2021, he had 101 targets, 59 receptions, 1,026 receiving yards, 10 touchdown receptions, 2.67 Y/RR, 14 missed tackles forced and 14 contested catches on 27 contested targets. He thrived vertically that season. According to PFF, Reed had 17 receptions for 573 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 29 targets that traveled 20-plus yards downfield in 2021.
Reed also hit the ground running in his first college season. In 2018 at Western Michigan, Reed had 88 targets, 56 receptions, 797 receiving yards, eight touchdown receptions, 2.37 Y/RR, 7.3 YAC/REC and 18 missed tackles forced. He shared the same receiving corps as D’Wayne Eskridge and bested his more senior teammate in all of the previously cited stats except Yards per Route Run.
Reed can align wide or in the slot. Interestingly, he played 49.6% of his career passing snaps in the slot and 49.9% wide in his college career. Reed’s ability to play inside or outside could get him high-percentage targets from the slot in three-wide-receiver sets without threatening his ability to stay on the field in two-wide-receiver sets with Christian Watson. Green Bay’s offense is in flux, and Reed could claim an integral role in his first year. At his ADP, he’s worth rolling the dice on.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
