As we approach the 2023 best ball season, it’s important to reflect on the past year and analyze what worked and what didn’t work for wide receivers. By understanding the reasons behind their successes and failures, we can better prepare for the upcoming season.
In this primer, we’ll dive into the strategies and top wide receivers to target in best ball leagues for 2023. Whether you’re a seasoned veteran or a newcomer to the best ball streets, it’s never too early to start drafting for the upcoming season.
As we approach the 2023 best ball season, it’s important to reflect on the past year and analyze what worked and what didn’t work for wide receivers. By understanding the reasons behind their successes and failures, we can better prepare for the upcoming season.
In this primer, we’ll dive into the strategies and top wide receivers to target in best ball leagues for 2023. Whether you’re a seasoned veteran or a newcomer to the best ball streets, it’s never too early to start drafting for the upcoming season.
2023 Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice: Tight Ends
Here’s what you should know about tight ends as you prepare for your best ball drafts.
Tight End Advance Rates
The highest TE advance rates came from Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Taysom Hill, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Mike Gesicki, David Njoku, Tyler Conklin, Pat Freiermuth, and Noah Fant.
The big takeaway is a lesson I preached from last season….stay out of the middle at tight end. Draft an elite guy, or just wait and wait. Among the top-4 in advance rate, zero were drafted between TE8 and TE21. There were some “hits” at TE8, TE11, TE12, TE15, and TE18 ADPs, but the advance rates were marginally better than tight ends going later in drafts.
When analyzing points per game versus advance rates – seven of the top-12 scorers in points per game finished with top-12 advance rates. Six of the ten finished inside the top 10 in total points scored.
The top-five scorers in tight end points per game returned a 60% top-5 advance rate. Ergo, if you draft a tight end that finishes inside the top five in total points scored, it’s an advantage in the best-ball format. And I’d argue that we would have seen a perfect five-for-five ranking here had theLamar Jackson injury not derailed Mark Andrew’s end to the season or George Kittle missed time to start the season. Amid the hurdles those two had to overcome, they still posted very close-to-average advance rates.
And for the most part, these tight ends come as no surprise at the top of the position’s landscape. The top six tight ends in points per game were all selected within the top ten based on ADP (TE1, TE5, TE7, TE2, TE8, TE10).
Note that when you spend that high-end draft capital on that top-six tight end, do not overly invest elsewhere in the position. You have more work to do addressing the other holes on your roster created by taking a tight end early. When you follow an elite tight end build, you only need to draft two TEs (unless stacking opportunities present themselves). But when you are taking all late-round guys, go for a three-man approach.
For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentages from the FFPC best ball drafts in 2021.
The highest win rates came at the top from guys likeMark Andrews (TE4) and Travis Kelce (TE1). And then there was a large gap in ADP between them in the next closest drafted tight end with a top-10 win rate (Rob Gronkowski, TE17).
In 2022 FFPC drafts, the highest win rates came from T.J. Hockenson (TE7), Travis Kelce (TE1), Evan Engram (TE20), Tyler Higbee (TE17), Tyler Conklin (TE38) and George Kittle (TE5). Again, the gap in ADP from the top tight ends to the next closest is extremely large, further cementing the idea behind a “great or just wait” tight end approach.
I’ve laid out my current best-ball TE rankings/tiers so you can better recognize the groups of players you should be targeting for the highest ROI based on their ADPs.
