Best Ball Advance Rates: Running Back (2023 Fantasy Football)

As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football best ball season, it’s essential to reflect on the lessons learned from the previous year. Understanding what strategies paid off and what didn’t is critical in preparing for a successful fantasy football draft.

In this best ball running back primer, we’ll take a deep dive into the “WHY” behind the successes and failures of last season to help guide you in drafting for this summer. With best ball leagues, there’s no such thing as starting too early, so let’s get to it.

Best Ball Draft Primers: QB
Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

2023 Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice: Running Backs

Here’s what you should know about running backs as you prepare for your best ball drafts.

Running Back Advance Rates

We can leverage advanced and alive rates from Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III tournament to get a better understanding of which running backs (Weeks 1-14) helped teams advance at the highest rate into the playoffs (Weeks 15-17). Using advanced/alive rates is helpful because it’s already factoring in the draft day cost of the player compared to their raw points scored.

The highest RB alive rates came from Saquon Barkley (23%, ADP RB9), Cam Akers (22%, RB19), Jerick McKinnon (22%, RB61), Tyler Allgeier (18%, RB48), Rhamondre Stevenson (17%, RB32), Tony Pollard (16%, RB26), Devin Singletary (16%, RB35), Derrick Henry (12%, RB4), Miles Sanders (12%, RB28), Austin Ekeler (11%, RB3), James Conner (11%, RB15), David Montgomery (11%, RB20), AJ Dillon (11%, RB22), Josh Jacobs (11%, RB24), James Cook (11%, RB37), Kenneth Walker (11%, RB38), Jamaal Williams (11%, RB52) and Raheem Mostert (11%, RB55).

Among the top-7 running backs in alive rate, zero were drafted inside the top-8 running backs. Thirteen of the top 18 running backs with the highest alive rates were drafted at RB20 and beyond (outside the top 60 overall picks, which is typically out of or at the tail-end of the dreaded RB dead zone).

The highest RB advance rates came from Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, Jamaal Williams, and Nick Chubb. All running backs were discounted in some capacity, with none being selected inside the top-13 running backs. Chubb was drafted the highest at RB14.

Among the top-10 running backs in advance rate, only one was drafted as such (Christian McCaffrey). Sixteen of the top 20 running backs with the highest advance rates were drafted at RB24 and beyond (outside the top 70 overall picks, which is typically out of or at the tail-end of the dreaded RB dead zone).

You’ll also notice the timing variance of the RBs’ production. The slow starters – Tony Pollard, D’Onta Foreman, Jerick McKinnon, Samaje Perine, and Kenneth Walker – still ended up being useful with strong finishes. Just another reason to fade early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become that much more critical. Players get discounted substantially based on Week 1 projections, so savvy drafters should take full advantage.

One of the other major takeaways is that many of the RBs that hit played in an ambiguous backfield. That aligns with my research before the start of the 2022 season titled, “How to Identify Sleeper & Late-Round Running Backs to Target (2022 Fantasy Football).” You’ll also notice that the other major hitters were running backs that boasted pass-catching chops.

When compared to their WR counterparts, running backs also slightly fell flat. But not at the top. Among the top-5 combined advance rates for RBs and WRs, RBs owned four of the five highest. But among the top 25 hit rates, only eight were running backs. Six running backs finished inside the top 15. What this data suggests is that WRs are a better bet in the aggregate to return a positive advance rate, but hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.

The worst advance rates for RBs were drafted at slots RB12, RB1, RB6, RB23, RB5, RB8, and RB19. Stark difference from the hits going outside the top-2o running backs.

When analyzing points per game versus advance rates – only four of the top-ten scorers in points per game finished with top-ten advance rates. Five of the ten (and seven of the top 12) finished inside the top 10 in total points scored. The ADPs of these running backs were extremely front-loaded. Of the top-nine scoring RBs, six owned ADPs inside the top-10, with the others ranging from RB14-RB28.

Ergo, the top dogs at running back still tend to be drafted very early on (inside the top 10), and there’s credence to taking a stud early to lock in the production. Then you punt the position – the “hero” RB approach – with WR now at the forefront. And it’s not until your roster has been adequately filled with WRs, QBs, and/or an elite tight end that you dip your toes back into the RB pool. The goal should be to end drafts with five-to-six running backs, with most formats only requiring two starting RB slots. That’s why I like the hero RB approach so much. You’ve got one spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining RBs on your roster.

For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentages from the FFPC best ball drafts in 2021. Unlike the Underdog Drafts, four of the top-five advance rates belonged to WRs. Although it was more even in the top 12 overall, with six of each position being represented. But WR dominated yet again within the top 23, with a total of 16 WRs being part of that group.

Among the top 14 per ADP, just four RBs finished with win rates inside the top 10. It’s definitely an argument favoring at least one running back somewhere near the top because their ADP/win rates are slightly higher/less volatile than that of WRs. Among the top 24 per ADP, just two WRs finished with win rates inside the top 10. Three inside the top 20.

In 2022 FFPC best ball drafts, two RBs (Pollard and Jacobs) owned top-5 win rates. Only two WRs were in the top-10. Although it was more even in the top 12 overall. But WR dominated yet again within the top 23, with a total of 11 WRs being part of that group versus seven running backs.

Among the top 15 per ADP, zero RBs finished with win rates inside the top 10. Two (CMC and Ekeler) finished inside the top 15. Three inside the top 20 (Barkley).

There’s definitely an argument to be made for those who favor drafting at least one running back somewhere near the top because their ADP/win rates are slightly higher/less volatile than that of WRs. Among the top 24 per ADP, just two WRs finished with win rates inside the top 10. Three inside the top 20.

Addressing RB early aligns with my recommendations from Early Round Best Ball Strategies.

I’ve laid out my current best-ball RB rankings/tiers so you can better recognize the groups of players you should be targeting for the highest ROI based on their ADPs.

Best Ball NFL Saquon Barkley Cam Akers Jerick McKinnon Tyler Allgeier Rhamondre Stevenson Tony Pollard Devin Singletary Derrick Henry Miles Sanders Austin Ekeler James Conner David Montgomery AJ Dillon Josh Jacobs James Cook Jamaal Williams Raheem Mostert Nick Chubb Christian McCaffrey D’Onta Foreman Samaje Perine