As we gear up for the 2023 fantasy football best ball season, it’s important to reflect on the past and analyze the factors that contributed to the successes and failures of quarterbacks and other positions. In this article, we’ll delve into the “why” behind these outcomes to provide a comprehensive draft primer for early fantasy football drafters. With the summer of best ball now upon us, let’s kick off the quarterback breakdown and get ready to DOMINATE our drafts.
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
2023 Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice: Quarterbacks
Here’s what you should know about quarterbacks as you prepare for your best ball drafts.
Quarterback Advance Rates
We can leverage alive and advance rates from Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III tournament to get a better understanding of which quarterbacks (Weeks 1-14) helped teams advance at the highest rate into the playoffs (Weeks 15-17). Using alive rates and advance rates is helpful because it’s already factoring in the draft day cost of the player compared to their raw points scored.
Two of the five QBs drafted inside the top 5 (based on ADP) finished with a top-5 advance rate.
Half of the top-8 quarterbacks (albeit QBs 5-8) with the best advance rates were drafted from the QB16-QB25 range. Jalen Hurts narrowly missed top-5 draft status as the QB6 off the board. Investing in a top-five QB based on ADP was not a bad investment. Even Lamar Jackson (QB4) had an above-average advance rate despite missing the latter half of the season.
The highest QB alive rates came from Kirk Cousins (26%, ADP QB15), Jalen Hurts (22%, QB6), Joe Burrow (19%, QB7), Trevor Lawrence (15%, QB18), Tua Tagovailoa (14%, QB17), Patrick Mahomes (13%, QB3) and Josh Allen (13%, QB1).
The important takeaway here includes that zero QBs drafted inside the top 5 (based on ADP) finished with a top-5 alive rate. Three were drafted from the QB15-QB18 range, but that’s not to say that taking a top-five QB was an entirely bad investment, with both Allen and Mahomes finishing tied for sixth in alive rate.
However, in the cases of Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson – all of them finished with sub-3% alive rates – not getting top-end production for a season’s entirety nuked teams with their expensive costs. A big part of those QBs failing was also due to injuries, whether to them or their pass-catchers. Ergo, stacking Chargers, Cardinals, and Ravens was not effective in the aggregate and made it tough for teams with those rosters to make it through the regular season. However, the idea behind stacking was still the correct process, as there’s a strong correlation between the top QBs and their pass-catchers regarding positive advancement.
Case in point, Justin Jefferson had the highest alive rate at 41% and because a lot of teams that drafted Jefferson also had Kirk Cousins, it’s no surprise to see the Vikings quarterback finish with a high advance rate.
Running down the list of WRs/TEs with best-advance rates – DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Zay Jones, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Lockett, Travis Kelce – it’s easy to see the correlation with the optimal QBs.
Among the ten quarterbacks with the highest alive rates, eight out of 10 finished inside the top 10 in total points scored and points per game. Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott missed games but posted strong points per game averages. Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff were outside the top 12 in per-game production but made up for it with longevity and availability.
Case in point, Tyreek Hill owned the highest advance rate from Round 1 (36%) among WRs and because a lot of teams that drafted Hill also rostered Tua Tagovailoa, it’s no surprise to see the Dolphins quarterback finish with a high advance rate even with his games missed.
By far, the worst advance rates at quarterback were those selected from QB8 to QB12. Those players included Trey Lance, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott.
For some additional context, I also looked back at the win rate percentage from the FFPC best ball drafts from 2021, and the results were strikingly similar. Among the top-5 QBs in ADP, just one (Josh Allen) returned a top-5 win rate. The other QBs being drafted were selected from QB6-QB15 among the top seven.
In 2022 FFPC drafts, Mahomes, Hurts, Jones, Smith and Goff posted top-5 win rates, with Mahomes the lone quarterback selected with a top-5 ADP.
Simply put, you NEED to acquire top-10 fantasy quarterback production in some form on your roster, and last year’s results suggest this can be done in a multitude of ways. You can still happily draft a top-five quarterback by ADP standards, but don’t necessarily be so gung-ho on taking the first QB off the board. Again, Mahomes and Allen finished first and second, respectively, in points scored, but neither was the top advancing quarterback. The top advancing QBs were being drafted later but still early relative to the double-digit rounds.
I’d highly recommend a late-round “elite” quarterback approach for your first quarterback target. You want to be drafting the QBs at the back end of the elite tier of fantasy QBs to capitalize on the value while also capturing a high ceiling.
And for your second quarterback – you should draft at least two good quarterbacks in best ball – follow a pseudo-late-round QB approach. It’s probably better described as a middle-round approach considering the best hits from this past season came from the QB15-21 range (Picks 115-165). But here you are looking for a steady body that can stay healthy/active for a full 18-game season. Looking for pocket passers with high projected passing volume (perfect for stacking) or guys with mobility are the ideal targets.
Among the QBs being drafted outside the top 100 picks (QB15-21), the ones that moved on the most played for teams that attempted at least 550 passes. And the ones that didn’t were the Daniel Jones/Justin Fields rushing fantasy quarterbacks. Among the top-10 quarterbacks last season in total points scored, eight rushed for at least 250 yards.
Call it the 55-25 rule. Can quarterback “X” throw 550-plus times and/or rush for 250 yards? Those are your top targets.
I’ve laid out my current best-ball QB rankings/tiers so you can better recognize the groups of players you should be targeting for the highest ROI.
Andrew Erickson’s Best Ball Quarterback Rankings & Tiers
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