While everyone is enjoying dynasty rookie draft season, May also kicks off Best Ball season. Yes, best ball drafts have been taking for months now, but this is the time of the year when things start to pick up. Free agency is over, and the NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror. Furthermore, the NFL schedule was recently released, so now fantasy players can plan for bye weeks during their best ball drafts.
Best Ball drafts are so much fun because of their uniqueness. Not only do you not set a weekly lineup in best ball draft like in season-long leagues, but the strategy behind your draft is different. Since you don’t set a weekly lineup in Best Ball, targeting upside during the draft is more critical than in season-long leagues.
Meanwhile, there are two tools to help fantasy players make draft day decisions: Underdog Fantasy ADP and FantasyPros Best Ball ECR Rankings. Unfortunately, the average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus rating (ECR) don’t always agree. So, let’s look at some of those disagreements and see which side is correct.
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Best Ball ADP vs. ECR Comparison (2023 Fantasy Football)
Let’s take a look at discrepancies between the best ball ADP and our expert consensus best ball rankings.
Players the ADP likes more than the ECR
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE): ADP: QB9 | ECR: QB12
Who is right? – The ADP
The star quarterback was awful last year, but he gets a pass after going 700 days between starts. Furthermore, Watson joined a new team with new teammates and a new offensive system between those 700 days. Meanwhile, he played well to finish last season. Watson averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns and 19.7 fantasy points per game over the final two weeks.
More importantly, the Browns added to his receiving core this offseason, trading for Elijah Moore and drafting Cedric Tillman. Watson has a higher ADP than Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa but is behind both quarterbacks in the ECR when he shouldn’t be.
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI): ADP: RB22 | ECR: RB27
Who is right? – The ADP
Swift is a tough call. Neither side is substantially wrong here. However, my issue with the ECR is having Rachaad White ranked higher than Swift. While he has struggled with injuries, Swift has been productive when given touches. The star back forced a missed tackle on nearly a quarter of his rushing attempts last year.
Furthermore, 13.1% of his rushing attempts went for 10-plus yards. More importantly, Swift should be even better behind an Eagles offensive line that ranked third in run blocking last season by PFF. Swift isn’t a top-20 running back, but I’ll take his potential upside over the unappealing second-year player.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC): ADP: WR20 | ECR: WR29
Who is right? – The ADP
Last year the Chargers’ offense got destroyed by injuries. Unfortunately, one of those players was Williams. Yet, he was the WR10 in 2021, averaging 13 fantasy points per game. More importantly, the star receiver had Justin Herbert as his quarterback. So, while Quentin Johnston‘s arrival isn’t ideal, Williams can still succeed alongside the rookie and Keenan Allen.
Furthermore, the knock on Williams is his up-and-down weekly play. However, that isn’t a problem in best ball leagues. The ECR has him lower than Jerry Jeudy and Christian Kirk, but neither receiver has more upside than Williams.
Irv Smith Jr. (TE – CIN): ADP: TE17 | ECR: TE23
Who is right? – The ECR
To be blunt, I have no idea what the ADP is thinking with Smith. The former Alabama tight end has never had more than 365 receiving yards in any year of his career. Furthermore, Smith has scored over 9.5 fantasy points in only four of 37 career games (10.8%).
More importantly, he is now part of a Bengals offense that only gave Hayden Hurst 68 targets last year despite Ja’Marr Chase missing five games with an injury. Juwan Johnson and Sam LaPorta are higher in the ECR than Smith but lower in ADP. I would draft both well before the veteran tight end.
Players the ECR likes more than the ADP
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): ECR: QB10 | ADP: QB14
Who is right? – The ADP
Jones was the QB9 last, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game, a career-high. However, I wouldn’t draft him as a top-10 quarterback. Furthermore, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Anthony Richardson are lower in the ECR than Jones. Yet, I rather have all three over the New York quarterback in best ball drafts.
Jones had only four games last year with more than 21 fantasy points. By comparison, he had seven games with 15 or fewer fantasy points, including five with under 13.6 points. While the Giants added to his receiving core this offseason, I don’t get the top-10 hype with Jones.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR): ECR: RB18 | ADP: RB24
Who is right? – The ECR
There are two types of fantasy players with Akers: lovers and haters. Unfortunately, the ADP has too many haters impacting it. Yes, the young running back was awful to start last season. Yet, he ended the year on fire. Over the final four weeks, Akers was the RB2, averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game.
Furthermore, he forced a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts in those contests. The Rams didn’t add anyone to challenge his featured role this offseason. Therefore, the ECR is right, putting Akers in the top-20 running backs and ahead of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon, unlike the ADP.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): ECR: WR22 | ADP: WR30
Who is right? – The ADP
After playing with Tom Brady, Godwin will catch passes from Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask in 2023. Not only is that a massive downgrade at quarterback, but the veteran receiver was never an elite Best Ball player. Godwin averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game last year but scored more than his season average in only five games.
Meanwhile, the veteran totaled under 9.5 fantasy points in nearly 50% of the contests. Unlike the ECR, the ADP is taking DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin over Godwin. I’m out on the Buccaneers, so give me the other two-star receivers over Godwin this year.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG): ECR: TE4 | ADP: TE7
Who is right? – The ADP
While Waller should have a massive target share this season, given the team’s subpar wide receiver unit, he has missed 41.2% of the games over the past two years because of injury. Furthermore, his production has slipped over the past few years. The veteran tight end averaged 2.8 yards after the catch per reception and 1.58 yards per route run in 2022.
Both were the lowest averages of his career since joining the Las Vegas Raiders in 2018. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts got held back by Marcus Mariota in 2022, while George Kittle had a career-high 11 receiving touchdowns. Fantasy players should ignore the ECR and draft both over the injury-prone tight end.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
