The NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, and the average draft position (ADP) and rankings within the positions in best-ball drafts are changing rapidly. Looking back at recent ADP changes can lend insight into whose stock is rising and falling, potentially creating an opportunity to make the most of the market. This piece will examine notable risers and fallers from March 29 to May 2.
Most-Rostered Best Ball Players
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks have generally moved up at all points of best-ball drafts since March 29, starting with the elite signal-callers and stretching to the final quarterbacks selected. Still, the quarterbacks on the table above had the most notable movement. Lamar Jackson is still the QB9, but his ADP has climbed a full round. The move makes sense since he agreed to a contract with the Ravens, and Baltimore added weapons to the pass-catching corps.
The Aaron Rodgers saga reached its inevitable conclusion. As a result, he's getting picked earlier, and Jordan Love's ADP has risen, too. Anthony Richardson's had the most meteoric rise among quarterbacks, though. The Colts chose him with the fourth pick in this year's NFL Draft, and his rushing potential has worked the best-ball drafters into a lather. And as Josh Norris and Hayden Winks discussed on the Underdog Fantasy podcast, Richardson's stock will likely keep climbing, especially if he's eventually named the starting quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo's fall is baffling. The Raiders didn't spend a high pick on a quarterback. Instead, they waited and moved up to pick Aidan O'Connell in the fourth round. So, Garoppolo's standing atop the depth chart is unquestioned.
The falls for Trey Lance and Mac Jones make more sense. After Brock Purdy's stellar play down the stretch last year, John Lynch stated when discussing the starting gig for the 49ers, "I think Brock has earned the right with the way he played that he's probably the leader in the clubhouse at that." And it appears Jones will have to compete with Bailey Zappe for New England's starting job.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson is the RB2. He'll be the workhorse for Atlanta's proficient running attack. Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs and Rhamondre Stevenson are the other RB1s who have risen since March 29. All four running backs avoided their clubs spending significant draft capital on another running back, enhancing their chances of serving as bell-cow running backs.
The Lions turned heads by spending the 12th pick in the NFL Draft on Jahmyr Gibbs. They later flipped D'Andre Swift to the Eagles, removing competition from the backfield. So, Gibbs' stock has skyrocketed. Devon Achane, Roschon Johnson, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby and Chase Brown are other incoming rookies who landed in favorable spots. Drafters are reacting accordingly.
Alvin Kamara is the only head-scratching running back on the table. The Saints had already inked Jamaal Williams to a contract in free agency before drafting Miller. So in a best-case scenario, Kamara will have competition for touches. However, the moves were likely made in anticipation of Kamara's suspension, despite Mickey Loomis claiming a potential suspension wouldn't influence their draft.
Many falling running backs on the table fell relative to their running back peers. Yet, as readers can see, their ADPs have climbed relative to all positions. Kenneth Walker doesn't fit the bill, though. The dynamic second-year running back has fallen a round and might continue to slide as drafters react to the Seahawks using a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet.
Tyler Allgeier has plummeted in drafts. He's now rightfully selected around other handcuffs. Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman are fallers in the wake of the Bears adding Johnson in the draft. And Kenneth Gainwell also had a significant fall, with the Eagles adding Swift via trade.
Sadly, Sean Tucker went undrafted. He reportedly had a heart condition discovered during the pre-draft process. Fortunately, the Buccaneers signed him as an undrafted free agent, and they expect his heart condition to "clear up soon."As a result, Tucker is a nifty last-round dart.
Wide Receivers
With the quarterbacks and running backs climbing, many wide receivers are falling. Thus, some of the risers on the table have later ADPs in May than in March. However, they've risen in relation to the other wideouts.
Odell Beckham is the first big mover listed on the table. He signed with the Ravens, and gamers are popping him much earlier in drafts. Carolina's receivers are well-represented on the table, with veterans Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark moving up and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo zooming upward.
Gamers are also hoping to strike gold by identifying who will step up in the receiving corps for the Chiefs. Obviously, being attached to an offense led by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is desirable. Thus, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice, Justyn Ross and Richie James are risers.
The rumors around DeAndre Hopkins getting traded reached a fever pitch on NFL Draft day. He wasn't moved, and he appears ticketed for a return to the Cardinals. Arizona's offense will probably struggle until Kyler Murray is healthy. With Nuk still on the roster, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore have also dipped.
Jameson Williams was suspended for the first six games of the regular season for breaking the NFL's rules on gambling. It will be interesting to see if he slips outside the top 100 picks.
The arrival of OBJ has turned gamers off from Rashod Bateman. In addition, first-round rookie arrivals have depressed the ADPs for K.J. Osborn and Joshua Palmer. Finally, the Giants' receivers are plastered on the table. The G-Men have an unclear pecking order for targets, and the uncertainty has reduced the draft costs for Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins.
Tight Ends
The order for the top-11 tight ends didn't change between March 29 and May 2. However, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Darren Waller and David Njoku moved up at least five picks, with Waller rising an entire round.
Dalton Kincaid jumped 55 picks. The Bills traded up in the first round to choose him. Rookie tight ends usually have a steep learning curve. Kincaid might be the club's answer to who mans the slot, though. He could reach the top 12 sooner rather than later.
The Lions made Sam LaPorta the second tight end drafted when they selected him early in the second round, and the Packers also picked Luke Musgrave in the second. The draft capital and landing spots were excellent for both rookies.
Irv Smith was arguably the biggest post-NFL Draft winner among veterans at any position after the Bengals bypassed adding a rookie tight end to the fold. He's the cheapest viable stacking option with Joe Burrow and a decent second or third tight end in non-stacks since Burrow enabled fantasy production for his tight ends in the previous two campaigns.
Adding Kincaid to Buffalo's tight end group torpedoed Dawson Knox's ADP nearly a round, and the fall is unlikely to stop. The Broncos traded for Adam Trautman, which could cause Greg Dulcich's ADP to drop a bit more. And the additions of OBJ and Zay Flowers have impacted Isaiah Likely's ADP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
