Andrew Erickson’s Must-Have Dynasty Rookies (2023 Fantasy Football)

With the 2023 NFL Draft now in the books and the 2023 Scouting Combine behind us, it’s time to take a look at the updated “my guys” for the 2023 fantasy football rookie class. After a long and rigorous pre-draft process, we have a much clearer picture of where each prospect has landed and their draft capital.

These players aren’t necessarily the biggest names, but they have proven to be worth the Andrew Erickson “Big Pod Energy” stamp of approval. These are the rookies who have the potential to vastly outperform their ADP in both dynasty rookie drafts and best-ball formats. I expect to be higher on each of these players than the consensus. It’s important to keep in mind that draft capital matters, especially for running backs, so these must-have targets accurately reflect the draft capital players received.

Before we dive into the list, don’t forget to check out FantasyPros’ 2023 early fantasy football rankings and the 2023 NFL Draft Guide, which covers all things related to college football prospects and the 2023 NFL Draft.

Without further ado, here is the second iteration of “my guys” for the 2023 rookie class.

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Kendre Miller (RB – NO)

Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).

Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18).

Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn’t stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams should Alvin Kamara miss anytime.

Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)

Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet’s numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine, so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet’s 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before.

But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.

The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall) pairing him with last year’s second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet can’t deliver home run rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. Charbonnet’s 3-down skill set combined with his draft capital suggests he will be used by the Seahawks plenty as a rookie, and he could end up being the better fantasy asset compared to Walker.

Keep in mind that head coach Pete Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team’s leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet’s closest comparisons based on his size and weight is Carson.

Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)

Marvin Mims was an elite producer at the collegiate level, hanging a 23 percent dominator rating in three years as an Oklahoma Sooner. He burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old freshman with a 24 percent dominator rating, triggering an early-age breakout. Mims led the team with 37 catches for 610 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. He also finished fifth in the nation in yards per route run (4.07) and seventh in PFF receiving grade (89.1). The 5-foot-11 and 183-pound wide receiver would cap off his college career strong with over 1,000 receiving yards as a junior, averaging 20 yards per reception for the second straight season. Mims was a fiend with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his class in yards after the catch per reception (8.1) despite a high average depth of target (17.0).

It’s rare to find a wide receiver like Mims who can make plays after the catch and win downfield. Mims finished third in the FBS in receiving yards and fifth in targets on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2022. He also offers ability as a punt returner. The one concern about his production profile is that the majority of it came against zone coverage looks. He only caught nine passes in man coverage. But in today’s NFL, the WRs that can find the soft spots in zone coverage tend to turn into PPR monsters.

Based on his profile alone, Mims was emerging as one of “my guys” in this overall lackluster wide receiver class. But his 2023 NFL Scouting Combine showing cemented his status for me inside my upper echelon of rookie WRs. The Oklahoma Sooner ran a 4.38 40-yard dash (90th percentile), jumped a 39.5-inch vertical (89th percentile), leaped 129 inches in the broad jump (89th percentile), and posted a 6.9 3-cone drill (72nd percentile). His impressive testing, early-age production, deep-threat prowess, and ability to win after the catch are all reasons to be “in” on Mims for rookie drafts. The dude still isn’t even 21 years old yet.

Mims would go on to be drafted by the Denver Broncos in the second round (63^rd overall) in the 2023 NFL Draft, solidifying his status for me as the clear-cut No. 5 WR in the draft class behind the four 1^st-rounders.

As I wrote in my NFL Draft Grades article, I initially wasn’t thrilled about the Denver landing spot for Mims. With incumbent WRs like Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton already on the roster, this hardly seems like a smash spot for Mims. But under the new Sean Payton regime, there is no telling what’s in the Broncos’ long-term plans. So WR could become more of a pressing need and Mims could find the field sooner rather than later as a second-round pick that is also Payton’s first-draft pick at the helm of the Denver Broncos. The second-round draft capital also suggests decent fantasy value in Year 1 based on the trends I’ve studied in valuing rookies in fantasy football.

At worst, Mims can fill the much-needed deep-threat role vacated by the often-injured K.J. Hamler. Watch him emerge as Russell Wilson‘s new favorite moonball target.

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

Jayden Reed turned heads at the Senior Bowl as one of the most impressive senior WRs in the 2023 Draft Class. And it should come as no surprise that Reed has dominated the competition based on his decorated college pedigree. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. He caught 56 passes for 797 yards and eight touchdowns (33% dominator rating, highest rating during a breakout year in his draft class) while competing with an older future second-round pick and Seattle Seahawk D’Wayne Eskridge. Reed transferred to Michigan State following his impressive freshman season but was forced to sit out due to NCAA regulations. But the time off did little to stop Reed, who did all he could during a truncated 2020 season, posting a 26% dominator rating while competing with future Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating.

And although the 5-foot-11 and 187-pound wide receiver didn’t depart Michigan State on the highest note (22% dominator rating), his previous dominant seasons showcase a prospect with major sleeper appeal in rookie drafts. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. He also caught eight receiving TDs on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2021, which trailed only A.T. Perry and Jordan Addison in the nation.

Reed returned kicks at both Western Michigan and Michigan State, further bolstering his sleeper status. In 2018 as a true freshman, Reed was PFF’s 4th-highest graded punt returner in the nation. In 2021, he led the FBS in yards per punt return (19.8) and all 2023 draft-eligible returners in PFF punt return grade.

He checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50^th overall. I expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR alongside Christian Watson.

Excellent selection by the Packers, who did everything they needed to do to set up Jordan Love in his first year as the full-time starter.

Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)

With the 39^th overall pick, the Carolina Panthers selected Jonathan Mingo in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Ole Miss WR can adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, standing at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds with 4.46 wheels to boot. His size/speed profile is enticing for fantasy, and his downfield prowess should gel with his new rookie quarterback. In 2022, 31% of his targets came on throws 20-plus yards downfield, second to only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). He generated a 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison. Additionally, Mingo created a ton of yardage with the ball in his hands. Among WRs with at least 80 targets, he finished 10th in the FBS in yards after the catch per reception (7.5).

Mingo broke out Ole Miss this past season with 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five receiving TDs. But had it not been for an injury in 2021, Mingo could have already officially broken out. The former Rebel averaged over 100 receiving yards per game for the first three games in the 2021 season until he was forced to miss time.

With two veterans between Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr. Mingo’s top competition for targets in the Panthers offense, there’s a strong possibility he will emerge as the team’s No. 1 WR in his first year as a pro.

Honorable RB Mentions

Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)

Tyjae Spears boosted his draft stock dramatically as a buzzy player at the Senior Bowl, and his atomic rise up the draft boards continued at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Spears weighed in at 5-foot-10 and 201 pounds. He did not run the 40-yard dash but instead nearly jumped out of the building in the explosion drills. His vertical jump of 39″ ranked in the 92nd percentile and was second only to Chase Brown. Spears’ broad jump ranked third in the class at 125″ which ranked in the 89th percentile.

The Tulane running back posted a 31 percent dominator rating in 2022, finishing 5th in the FBS in rushing yards (1,586), second in rushing TDs (19), and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.55). Throughout his career, he boasts an impressive 3.00 yards per play (seventh best in the class) – a great indicator of future success at the NFL level.

The Titans tied a bow on Day 2 of this year’s draft with the selection of Spears in Round 3(. Spears gives the Titans a solid backup option for Derrick Henry, but I’d be wary about his long-term prospects. He was projected to go higher than 83rd overall but fell because of worrisome issues concerning the health of his knees. The terms “missing ACL” and “knee arthritis” should scare you. However, this sentiment has scared drafters to the point where Spears is becoming a supreme value in rookie drafts despite third-round real-life draft capital. Henry is hitting free agency in 2024, so Spears could be the Titans’ RB1 as soon as next season – even if it’s for just a short time frame. Besides, RBs deemed “healthy” hardly have long shelves.

At least for 2023, Spears offers desirable value as a fantasy handcuff to Henry.

Zach Evans (RB – LAR)

The Rams traded up to draft Zach Evans very late on Day 3. L.A. traded No. 252 and a sixth-round pick in 2024 to the Bills for Pick 215, where they selected the Ole Miss running back.

Evans spent his first two college seasons at TCU, seeing limited usage alongside fellow 2023 draft prospect Kendre Miller. Evans was the clear frontrunner in the backfield to start his sophomore campaign but suffered a turf toe injury that cut his 2021 season short. Evans would go on to transfer to Ole Miss at the start of the 2022 season, where he posted his best college counting stats to date with a 17 percent dominator rating. His 15% boom percentage per Sports Info Solutions led all RBs in his class.

However, he failed to fully take over at the backfield as he did at TCU, losing out on touches to freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. The fact that Evans has struggled to fully take over a backfield at the college level – along with no contributing role as a receiver – is a major red flag as he makes his way into the NFL, but his efficient play when on the field suggests he can deliver when called upon. His career average of 3.47 yards per play ranks second-best among the incoming rookie RBs I sampled earlier this offseason. Evans also boasts decent size at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds – albeit the weight he measured at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine was much lighter than his listed weight at Ole Miss (216 pounds).

At the Ole Miss pro day, Evans posted a 4.45 40-time (85th percentile), ran a 4.26 20-yard shuttle (54th percentile) and finished the 3-cone drill in 7.08 seconds (48th percentile).

Evans’ best-case scenario was landing on a weak depth chart, and there is nobody threatening behind Cam Akers in the Rams backfield.

Undervalued WR Names

Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)

Cedric Tillman operated as Tennessee’s No. 1 WR as a junior in 2021, posting a 32 percent dominator rating. The 21-year-old took over the WR1 chair formerly owned by future Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer and narrowly outproduced another future NFL player, Velus Jones Jr. Tillman totaled 1,081 receiving yards, caught 12 TDs and generated the nation’s highest passer rating when targeted (155.8) but elected to forego the NFL and return to school in 2022.

He was limited to six games after suffering an ankle injury and was out-shined greatly by his teammate and 2023 draft prospect Jalin Hyatt who took home the Fred Biletnikoff Award.

However, in the five games that Tillman played healthy, he outproduced Hyatt with more targets (56, 30% target share vs. 40, 21% target share), catches (35 vs. 30), and yards (401 vs. 367). Tillman also yielded a higher aDOT (14.3 vs. 11.2).

Tillman’s lack of early-career production and age entering the league (23) definitely raise eyebrows about what kind of ceiling he can offer. But his size at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds helps him literally stand out as a prototypical “X” receiver in a class that is severely lacking big-bodied receivers. Jonathan Mingo and Bryce Ford-Wheaton were the only other rookie WRs at the Combine to measure at least 6-foot-3 while also running a sub 4.54 40-yard dash. 

That profile is worth gravitating toward at the cost of a third-round rookie pick. After all, Tillman was selected in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft (74th overall) by the Cleveland Browns. He can emerge as a big-bodied perimeter target for Deshaun Watson for the foreseeable future with Donovan Peoples-Jones hitting the open market in 2024. 

Kayshon Boutte (WR – NE)

My primary wide receiver takeaway from “How to value rookie in fantasy football” is to go aggressively after wide receivers with Round 1 or 2 draft capital but be extremely wary of those that go Round 3 or later. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.

It’s easy to tell yourself a story that guys like Derius Davis, Tyler Scott or Puka Nacua can have a stretch of fantasy production. But realistically, you are just praying for a spike week. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys outside the 18th round of a best-ball format. And in the case of Davis/Scott, it would only happen if I rostered Justin Herbert or Justin Fields as my quarterback.

My one sole exception for drafting Day 3 WRs would be the new Patriots and former LSU wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.

Despite being drafted in the sixth round, Boutte has shown tremendous potential during his time at LSU. As a freshman, he led the team in targets with 76, converting his volume into an impressive 22% dominator rating at just 18 years old. He followed that up in 2021 with another 22% dominator rating in just six games played, cementing his status as the team’s alpha WR1 after Terrace Marshall Jr. left for the NFL.

Although he struggled with injuries in 2022 and failed to show the same elite playmaking ability as his first two seasons, Boutte ended his college career strong with a season-high 11 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown against Georgia.

If Boutte is back to 100% health as an NFL rookie, he has the potential to be a steal in fantasy rookie drafts. Despite his fall to the sixth round of the draft, he has shown the ability to produce at a high level against tough competition. His youth is also a major plus, as he just turned 21 on May 7th.

However, there are concerns about his work habits and attitude, as well as his poor testing numbers at the NFL Combine. He finished last in the vertical jump and second to last in the broad jump, which raises concerns about his explosiveness and ability to separate at the next level. Nevertheless, if he can overcome these concerns and return to the form he showed earlier in his career, Boutte could be a great late-round option in fantasy rookie drafts.

And most importantly, he won’t clog your dynasty roster with middling production. He’s either going to hit or flame out entirely. There is no in-between. This is the way.

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