Now that the 2023 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to focus on the fantasy impact of the three-day event. The NFL Draft played a role in the rookie draft ADP. However, it also impacted veterans. Let’s look at 12 players whose ADP is on the rise or fall following the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
ADP Risers & Fallers
Here are ADP risers and fallers following the 2023 NFL Draft.
Veteran Risers
Things have drastically changed in Baltimore over the past few weeks. Jackson was a potential holdout candidate, and the team had a limited wide receiver core. However, the superstar quarterback signed a long-term deal. Meanwhile, the Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and spent their first-round pick on Zay Flowers. Fantasy players can feel more confident in the superstar quarterback. Jackson has as much rushing upside as any quarterback in the NFL. More importantly, he has Mark Andrews and three talented wide receivers at his disposal. Don’t be shocked if Jackson has a career year passing.
Now that Tom Brady is enjoying his retirement, the Buccaneers are entering a rebuilding phase. The team released Leonard Fournette this offseason at his request. That left White as the lead back in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, many expected the team to spend an early-round draft pick on a running back to pair with the former Arizona State star. However, the Buccaneers didn’t use any draft capital on a running back. While Tampa Bay could sign a veteran between now and the start of the regular season, White is one of the few running backs in the NFL with a featured role.
The Titans started the offseason by releasing several veterans, including Robert Woods. However, the team didn’t do much to replace him or improve their wide receiver core. Tennessee decided to spend a third-round pick on a backup running back and a fifth-round selection on a backup tight end instead of a wide receiver. Furthermore, the Titans waited until the seventh round to draft a wide receiver, Colton Dowell. Meanwhile, Burks averaged 1.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per target over his final six games last season despite his injuries and inconsistent quarterback play. The former Arkansas star could have a second-year breakout if he can stay healthy.
Veteran Fallers
Last year the only consistent fantasy player was Cooper Kupp. Unfortunately, Stafford has the worst year of his career, averaging only 12 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he couldn’t stay healthy, missing eight games. Despite the rumors that Stafford would retire this offseason, the veteran will return in 2023. However, the Rams didn’t do him any favors. They traded Allen Robinson away for next to nothing. Then, the team spent a fourth-round pick on Stetson Bennett. Meanwhile, they spent only a fifth-round selection on improving his wide receiver core. Even if Stafford can stay healthy, his lack of weapons other than Kupp severely hampers his fantasy upside.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
Two years ago, Patterson was a fantasy star, ending the season as the RB9, averaging 13 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he regressed last year and lost the lead role to Tyler Allgeier. However, the veteran running back still had a role behind the former BYU star. Yet, that changed when Atlanta spent the eighth overall pick on Bijan Robinson. The former Longhorn will be the featured back, while Allgeier will become the backup and fantasy handcuff. That means Patterson might only see the field on special teams. Hopefully, the veteran gets cut or traded and lands in an appealing fantasy situation. Sadly, Patterson has no fantasy value if he remains with the Falcons.
Despite starting his rookie year struggling with injuries and drops, Watson ended the season as the WR34, averaging 10.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. After scoring 21.7 total fantasy points over his first six games, the receiver averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game for the rest of the season. Furthermore, Watson had that fantasy points per game average despite averaging only 6.5 targets per contest. Unfortunately, things have changed in Green Bay this offseason. Aaron Rodgers is gone, and Jordan Love is a total unknown. Meanwhile, the Packers added three wide receivers and two tight ends in the 2023 NFL Draft. While he remains the No. 1 wide receiver, Watson has plenty of competition for targets and an unknown at quarterback.
Rookie Risers
While Johnson was a fourth-round NFL Draft pick, the former Longhorn is a popular rookie draft pick. More importantly, his ADP is rising after several reports over the past week about how much Chicago loves the rookie. The Bears signed D’Onta Foreman after losing David Montgomery in free agency. Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert has been a fantasy football favorite over the past two years. Yet, he’s never had a lead role and got drafted by the previous regime. Last year Dameon Pierce was in a similar situation and had a productive fantasy season. Fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if Johnson has a similar rookie year.
Yes, Travis Kelce was the star of Kansas City’s passing attack, but JuJu Smith-Schuster did have 101 targets last season. The veteran receiver finished top 40 in the NFL in that category. However, he signed with the New England Patriots this offseason, leaving the Chiefs without their top wide receiver from last year. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the only other wide receiver on the team with over 35 targets in 2022. While the team has high hopes for Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, Rice could step into Smith-Schuster’s role as a rookie. The former SMU star could see his ADP take off if Patrick Mahomes sings his praises.
The Lions got some disappointing news a few days before the NFL Draft. Jameson Williams will miss the first six games of the upcoming season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Still, the team waited until the seventh round to draft a wide receiver, selecting North Carolina’s Antoine Green. However, Detroit did spend an early second-round pick on the former Hawkeye, making him the second tight end drafted. LaPorta had 111 receptions for 1,327 receiving yards and four touchdowns over the past two years despite poor quarterback play. Tight ends rarely make an impact in their rookie year. Yet, LaPorta has a realistic chance to finish second on the team in targets this season.
Rookie Fallers
Abanikanda was a popular sleeper candidate leading up to the NFL Draft. However, the former Pittsburgh running back landed in an awful fantasy situation. Breece Hall was the favorite to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year last season before he suffered a torn ACL. Meanwhile, there haven’t been any reports suggesting Hall won’t be ready for Week 1. More importantly, Abanikanda isn’t the clear-cut No. 2 running back behind Hall. Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight both had productive moments last year. While Abanikanda might become Hall’s handcuff, the former Pittsburgh running back has limited fantasy upside.
The former Buckeye was the top rookie receiver in the draft class. However, Smith-Njigba didn’t land in the best spot for his fantasy value, especially this year. The Seahawks have a talented wide receiver duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Both players ended last season as top-20 wide receivers. They combined for 258 targets, nearly half of the team’s total. Meanwhile, Noah Fant finished third on the team in targets with 63 last year. Furthermore, no Seahawk besides Lockett has seen more than 63 targets any year since the team drafted Metcalf in 2019. While he will be a star one day, Smith-Njigba’s ADP will slide because of his landing spot.
Many NFL Draft scouts were big fans of Washington before the draft. However, medical concerns made the former Georgia tight end slip to the end of the third round. While he was the eighth tight end drafted, Washington’s landing spot is the bigger issue. The Steelers have a young star tight end on the roster in Pat Freiermuth. He has two top-13 finishes in his career, including the TE8 finish last season. More importantly, Pittsburgh has a tight-knit offense, meaning most of their fantasy production comes from only a few players. Washington had plenty of upside two weeks ago, but his landing spot has crushed his fantasy value.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
