The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, and now it’s time for dynasty rookie drafts. Landing spots and draft capital have been determined, and we’re here with your dynasty rookie draft outlooks. Let’s take a look at what Derek Brown expects of A.T. Perry.
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Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks & Predictions: A.T. Perry
Stats:
- 2022 (286 FBS WRs, minimum 50 targets)
- Yards per route run: 35th
- PFF receiving grade: 17th
- 2021 (251 FBS WRs, minimum 50 targets)
- Yards per route run: 39th
- PFF receiving grade: 33rd
- Career
- 55th percentile college dominator
- 82nd percentile collegiate target share
- 18th percentile breakout age
Scouting report:
- Perry understands leverage and route running well overall but needs to continue polishing his routes. He utilizes his size and a quick first step well on slants with a good feel versus zone. His fluid hips help him snap off routes at the top of his stem with average foot speed. His shortcomings in short-area agility show up on comebacks and curls and selling a vertical push.
- Perry isn’t as physical as his size or frame would lead anyone to believe. He’s not a strong YAC producer, with only 3.1 yards after the catch per reception during his collegiate career. He never ranked higher than 60th in missed tackles forced among wide receivers (minimum 50 targets). Perry does have a quick first step, though, transitioning into a runner after the reception, so while he doesn’t break tackles, he can pick up extra yards and extend plays in space.
- He can be pushed off his routes and have issues with physical corners that get can into his body. Perry lacks a second gear to stack corners on nine routes easily. Add in that he only secured 40% of his contested opportunities in college, and we’re left with a “prototypical X receiver” type who should be utilized in the intermediate areas of the field. Perry profiles as a chain-moving outside receiver that can beat zone and man coverage, but he shouldn’t be asked to stretch the field often on go routes. His size and skill set are more conducive to success via corner and post routes.
- Perry dealt with drops at Wake Forest with a 10.4% drop rate. This could be related to technique or his 39th percentile hand size. Only time will tell if NFL coaching can clean this up some or if it lingers at the next level.
Player Comp: Ashley Lelie
Dynasty Outlook: I was shocked that Perry was on the board in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. The Saints made sure he didn’t sit out there any longer. Perry’s path to playing time could be easier than it appears at first glance. Chris Olave is locked into a starting role and should lead the team in targets, but after him, things get dicey quickly in the Big Easy. It’s still possible that we never see a healthy version of Michael Thomas ever again. Rashid Shaheed played well in a small sample last year, but he is also a free agent after this season. Keith Kirkwood, Tre’Quan Smith, and Bryan Edwards are his only remaining competition for snaps if Thomas can’t go. Perry could be a Week 1 starter if not crack the starting lineup at some point in 2023. Depending on how the rookie draft is unfolding, I will start considering him in the late third round with the knowledge that he likely drops into the fourth round. Stash him on your taxi squads. He could be the Saints’ latest late-round find that bursts onto the NFL scene seemingly out of nowhere.
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