Before the 2023 NFL Draft kicked off in Kansas City, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies Pre-Draft (Fantasy Football 2023) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.
Because there’s no denying that the recent influx of young talent that has entered the NFL has altered the way fantasy managers need to approach rookies. Guys are hitting the ground running. Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Dameon Pierce, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, Amon Ra St. Brown and Elijah Mitchell all produced as rookies the past three seasons.
How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: Post-NFL Draft
Draft capital is a crucial factor to consider when evaluating the potential of rookie players in fantasy football. With every new prospect entering the league, there is a level of uncertainty that needs to be considered when determining their fantasy value.
Understanding how the NFL views a player based on their draft position can provide valuable insight into their potential success at the professional level. By leveraging this information and historical data on rookie performance, you can create a winning strategy for the 2023 rookie class. This will give you an edge in dynasty rookie drafts, season-long leagues, and best ball drafts by identifying undervalued players and maximizing their potential in your lineup.
Wide Receivers
The expectations for rookie wide receivers in the NFL have skyrocketed in recent years due to their remarkable production during their first seasons. In the past, it was commonly believed that it took about three seasons for a receiver to achieve a breakout performance. However, the evolving college game has changed that narrative, as players like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson from LSU shattered records in their rookie year. Even Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave found considerable success as rookies.
Nowadays, if a receiver doesn’t perform well by their second year, both real-life and fantasy teams are quick to seek alternative options.
Rookie Wide Receivers since 2013
| Drafted |
# |
Targets (Avg) |
FF Finish |
WR1% |
WR2% |
WR3% |
WR4% |
| 1st Round |
42 |
75.0 |
59.0 |
7% |
26% |
32% |
37% |
| 2nd Round |
50 |
60.8 |
77.3 |
3% |
9% |
26% |
31% |
| 3rd Round |
41 |
35.6 |
95.1 |
0% |
3% |
8% |
14% |
| 4th Round |
43 |
23.8 |
95.3 |
0% |
3% |
3% |
0% |
| 5th Round |
42 |
25.1 |
90.6 |
0% |
0% |
6% |
7% |
| 6th Round+ |
58 |
7.9 |
116.7 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
However, compared to running backs, you can see a stark contrast in hit rates based on draft capital. 26% of first-round wide receivers finishing as top-24 options is a more probable outcome than a third-round running back ending as a top-24 option (17%).
Therefore – under no circumstances should you draft a third-round running back over WR with Round 1 draft capital. The current rookie draft ADP reflects this, but last year there were times when Jahan Dotson was being drafted after Isaiah Spiller, Dameon Pierce and Rachaad White. Don’t be that person in your rookie drafts or redraft leagues to pass on the four Round 1 WRs in favor of a Day 2 running back. Bad process.
2023 Wide Receivers Drafted Rounds 1-2
The most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers are certainly drafted in the first two rounds. There have been 33 rookie wide receivers who’ve finished inside the top-36 (WR3 territory) over the last 10 years, and 27 of them were drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft (82%).
Round 2 or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 58% clip.
Based on the hit rates that I’ve previously touched on, I’d project at least 1 or 2 of the four first-round rookie WRs in this class to finish at top-24 options. None of them are priced as such, which means they are all values, with three going outside the top 40 WRs.
Of the four Round 2 WRs selected, I’d project maybe one to finish as a top-24 option or at least a top-36 option. Rashee Rice seems like the best bet based on the opportunity he should see in a high-powered Chiefs option. I am also a massive fan of Marvin Mims, and I think his second-round draft capital is telling as Sean Payton’s first draft pick at the helm of the Denver Broncos.
I’d also estimate that another WR finishes inside the top-36 with 2nd-round picks, offering a 26% fantasy WR3 hit rate.
Considering all eight of the Round 2 or higher rookie WRs, there’s a strong chance that more than half will finish as WR3s in their first season. Round 2 or higher rookie wide receivers have combined for fantasy WR3 seasons at a 58% clip.
Thus, you could blindly draft all four first-round rookie WRs or another Round 2 WR with a decent probability they all finish inside the top-36. Considering zero of them have an ADP inside the top-36 based on the current best ball ADP (other than Jaxon Smith-Njigba) you need to draft them aggressively until the market adjusts. Jordan Addison is probably my favorite bet to do so, based on his landing spot with the Minnesota Vikings.
After Round 2, expectations need to change. Don’t be overly bullish on the Round 3 guys like Jalin Hyatt, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Cedric Tillman, Michael Wilson, or Tre Tucker (please don’t). Even in the case of Hyatt or Dell, where the teams (Buffalo and Houston) traded up to acquire them.
Because like the running back position – there’s another drastic fall from Round 2 to Round 3. Just 3-of-39 3rd-round wide receivers have finished top-36 since 2013, including zero hits over the past two seasons. Come on, Jalen Tolbert.
If I had to make one exception, it would likely be one of the Tennessee WRs. Coming from a gimmicky college offense, each possesses a wide range of outcomes at the pro level. With Hyatt specifically, I think it’s fair to view him closer to the Round 2 WRs than Round 3 WRs because the Giants were willing to take him in Round 2. They also traded very aggressively to draft him trading a No.89 and No. 128 (4th-rounder) to move up to the 72nd overall selection.
Joe Schoen has ties to Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel, and that relationship played a part in the team’s confidence in selecting Hyatt. Brian Daboll sees comparisons to Gabe Davis in his game, but there’s no question Hyatt enter the NFL with a much stronger college profile than the Bills WR.
Hyatt also said in his post-draft presser that he plays much closer to 188-190 pounds, which is drastically different from his weight at the combine (176 pounds).
Outside the top-100 picks, you can pretty much ignore the majority of WRs taken from Rounds 4-plus.
There have been 35 wide receivers drafted in the fourth round from 2013-2020. Not one of them has finished as a top 50 wide receiver in their rookie year. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only fourth-round WR to buck the trend since 2013. The Lions’ rookie wide receiver was the extreme outlier in this category in 2021, as he not only finished top 50 but 21st overall.
But in 2022, it was more of the same with 4th-round rookie WRs between Romeo Doubs (WR76), Erik Ezukanma (WR212) and Calvin Austin (N/A).
The primary takeaway is to go aggressively after wide receivers with Round 1 or 2 draft capital but be extremely wary of those that go Round 3 or later. ASB’s blazing 2021 season is not the norm; fantasy managers should not chase the possibility because it will not be easily replicated.
It’s easy to tell yourself a story that guys like Derius Davis, Tyler Scott or Puka Nacua can have a stretch of fantasy production. But realistically, you are just praying for a spike week. I wouldn’t touch any of these guys outside the 18th round of a best-ball format. And in the case of Davis/Scott, it would only happen if I rostered Justin Herbert or Justin Fields as my quarterback.
My one sole exception for drafting Day 3 WRs would be the new Patriots and former LSU wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.
Despite being drafted in the sixth round, Boutte has shown tremendous potential during his time at LSU. As a freshman, he led the team in targets with 76, converting his volume into an impressive 22% dominator rating at just 18 years old. He followed that up in 2021 with another 22% dominator rating in just six games played, cementing his status as the team’s alpha WR1 after Terrace Marshall Jr. left for the NFL.
Although he struggled with injuries in 2022 and failed to show the same elite playmaking ability as his first two seasons, Boutte ended his college career strong with a season-high 11 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown against Georgia.
If Boutte is back to 100% health as an NFL rookie, he has the potential to be a steal in fantasy rookie drafts. Despite his fall to the sixth round of the draft, he has shown the ability to produce at a high level against tough competition. His youth is also a major plus, as he won’t even turn 21 until after the draft (May 7th).
However, there are concerns about his work habits and attitude, as well as his poor testing numbers at the NFL Combine. He finished last in the vertical jump and second to last in the broad jump, which raises concerns about his explosiveness and ability to separate at the next level. Nevertheless, if he can overcome these concerns and return to the form he showed earlier in his career, Boutte could be a great late-round option in fantasy rookie drafts.
And most importantly, he won’t clog your dynasty roster with middling production. He’s either going to hit or flame out entirely. There is no in-between. This is the way.
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