2023 Fantasy Football Rookies: Values & Outlook (Running Backs)

Before the 2023 NFL Draft kicked off in Kansas City, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies Pre-Draft (Fantasy Football 2023) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.

Because there’s no denying that the recent influx of young talent that has entered the NFL has altered the way fantasy managers need to approach rookies. Guys are hitting the ground running. Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Dameon Pierce, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, Amon Ra St. Brown and Elijah Mitchell all produced as rookies the past three seasons.

• NFL Draft Grades for Every Team
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• NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers (Day 2 | Day 3)
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• Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

How to Value Rookies in Fantasy Football: Post-NFL Draft

Draft capital is a crucial factor to consider when evaluating the potential of rookie players in fantasy football. With every new prospect entering the league, there is a level of uncertainty that needs to be considered when determining their fantasy value.

Understanding how the NFL views a player based on their draft position can provide valuable insight into their potential success at the professional level. By leveraging this information and historical data on rookie performance, you can create a winning strategy for the 2023 rookie class. This will give you an edge in dynasty rookie drafts, season-long leagues, and best ball drafts by identifying undervalued players and maximizing their potential in your lineup.

Running Backs

Draft capital is a crucial factor to consider when evaluating running backs in fantasy football. The reason for this is that there is a clear and significant correlation between a running back’s draft position and their production in fantasy football. This connection is not surprising since draft capital is a better indicator of opportunity rather than just talent or skill alone, and the running back position is highly reliant on volume in fantasy football. By factoring in draft capital when evaluating running backs, you can make more informed decisions when it comes to drafting, trading, or starting them on your fantasy team, ultimately leading to better outcomes and success in your league.

Most NFL teams are wising up to drafting a running back at the back end of Round 1 or in the middle of Day 2 (look away Detroit Lions fans) with a goal to run them into the ground through the extent of their rookie contract.

Rookie Running Backs since 2013

First-round rookie running backs, on average, see 237 touches per season – a number that ranked 20th at the position last season. However, the benchmark at 20 is slightly inflated due to the extra game, so I’d estimate the average is closer to the top-15 based on the previous 16-game season sample size (237 touches ranked 15th in 2021).

Najee Harris – 381 touches in 2021, No. 1 in the NFL – is the best-case scenario for a first-round rookie volume-wise but still showcases the impact a first-year runner can make despite zero professional experience.

Last year we had zero RBs selected in the first round, but three finished with over 225 touches between Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. And Breece Hall was on pace for 242 touches before his injury.

Two running backs were selected in Round 1 during this year’s draft: Bijan Robinson (8^th) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12^th). Nobody was surprised with Robinson going inside the top 10, but Gibbs going 12^th overall – with some reports claiming Detroit would have taken him sixth overall – is extremely eye-opening.

The draft capital alone mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs based on his 199-pound frame. Detroit paid a premium, and that means he is going to get his touches (likely high value in the form of receptions) regardless of what the team paid David Montgomery during free agency.

Last season ex-Lions and newly acquired Eagles running back D’Andre Swift was uber-efficient on a per-touch basis: fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift (10.3) and Jamaal Williams (16.1) combined for 26.4 touches per game. Even with a projected 50-50 split, Gibbs is looking at a 224-touch workload. With a 55% split, Gibbs is flirting with nearly 250 total touches over a 17-game season. Simply put, the former Alabama running back needs to be ranked as a top-12 fantasy running back for the 2023 season.

In Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft, there was only one running back selected. The Seattle Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet to the chagrin of all who expected second-year RB Kenneth Walker to maintain status as a premier RB dynasty asset.

It’s scary for those who have Walker rostered in dynasty because Charbonnet boasts a three-down skill set and his 52^nd overall draft capital suggests that he will see solid work in some capacity. Remember, running backs drafted early on Day 2 are essentially the first-round running backs from five years ago with the position so heavily devalued by real NFL teams.

The average running back finish for a first-round running back is RB18, and it’s RB37 for a second-round running back in Year 1.

And that’s why you should be heavily drafting Charbonnet because his discounted ADP due to the Seattle landing spot doesn’t fully capture his draft capital. Situations and backfields change. A player’s draft capital is forever linked to them.

Charbonnet (RB30 and dropping) seems priced closer to his floor than their ceiling as Round 2 running backs finish as RB3s more than half the time (52%).

Let’s also be real here regarding the Seattle landing spot. It’s clear that the Charbonnet selection is more telling on how the team/organization feels about Walker. He underwhelmed as a receiver in college and his first year in the pros. His rushing success rate per True Media ranked second-to-last (31.4%) among rushers with at least 100 carries in 2022. He also missed games because of injuries.

Charbonnet posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.

The rookie Seahawk can’t deliver the home run rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently.

Keep in mind that head coach Pete Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1^st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7^th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team’s leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet’s closest comparisons per Mockdraftable.com is Carson.

It’s also worth mentioning that Charbonnet was not the only running back the Seahawks drafted. They selected Georgia receiving specialist RB Kenny McIntosh in the seventh round.

Another intriguing topic is to cover the five running backs selected in Rounds 3 and 4.

2023 Running Backs Drafted Rounds 3-4

Most analysts — myself included — and draft pundits tend to cluster “Day 2 running backs” together because the draft is set up in that fashion, but the facts advocate we should view them separately. The major overall drop-off in running back production from Round 2 to Round 3 cannot be ignored.

The volume and fantasy finish margin from Round 2 to Round 3 running backs is more significant than Round 3 to Round 4 running backs. Tyrion Davis-Price is the example from last season of a Round 3 running back that completely failed to fire.

“Of the 30 running backs who’ve been drafted in the third round over the last ten years, just five of them have finished as a top-24 running back in their rookie season, while 21 of them finished outside of the top-36 running backs.”

Considering the average rookie finish for a 3rd-round RB is RB58, the four third-round rookies are being priced slightly heavier by the market based on their true draft capital. The argument for these backs is for their upside, as the nearly identical RB1% suggests the ceiling outcomes is very similar between RD2 and RD3 running backs if one stumbles into volume to realize their fantasy ceiling. But it comes with a much shakier floor than Round 2 running backs, which can be a tough pill to swallow especially in dynasty formats.

Tulane’s Tyjae Spears was the only running back that was expected to go in Round 3, and he was the second one picked behind only TCU’s Kendre Miller. Devon Achane and Tank Bigsby rounded out the remaining Round 3 backs. Achane owns the highest ADP (based on his landing spot in Miami).

Achane’s landing spot rocketing his ADP that has me somewhat concerned. None of these Round 3-4 guys should have immediate top-36 expectations, and I am afraid Achane might creep into that range. However, that’s under the assumption that Dalvin Cook isn’t traded to the Miami Dolphins at some point during the offseason.

As I wrote in my 2023 NFL Draft Grades for All 32 NFL Teams, Spears gives the Titans a solid backup option for Derrick Henry, but I’d be wary about his long-term prospects. He was projected to go higher than 83rd overall but fell because of worrisome issues concerning the health of his knees. The terms “missing ACL” and “knee arthritis” should scare you.

Texas running back Roschon Johnson was the lone Round 4 running back and is being selected ahead of all three Round 3 running backs sans Achane. However, my research has found there’s not much of a difference between the two (Round 3 versus Round 4) in first-year production, so I don’t think it’s ludicrous. Round 4 running backs look much more like Round 3 running backs from a post-draft production standpoint than their Round 5-plus counterparts.

In the past four seasons, 45 running backs have been selected in Rounds 5-7. Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco were the best of the bunch last season. Over the same period, the big-hitting rookie running backs who significantly contributed to fantasy rosters were Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson, who both went undrafted.

There’s a slightly higher hit rate in the fourth round than in Rounds 5-7. Players like Tony Pollard, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard and Michael Carter most recently enjoyed fantasy-relevant weeks as rookies.

However, it’s still a massive uphill battle to wait until even early Day 3 to hear a running back’s name called.

From 2013 to 2021, just two running backs finished as top-24 running backs (Jordan Howard in 2016, Zac Stacy in 2013). Pierce (RB27) and Allgeier (RB28) came extremely close to top-24 status last season. A few guys also came seriously close in 2021 – Elijah Mitchell (RB25), Michael Carter (RB29), and Chuba Hubbard (RB33) – but ultimately fell short of cresting fantasy RB2 status.

We should not value any rookie running back drafted on Day 3 with a top-24 price tag. And ADP heavily favors the Rounds 3-4 crops of RBs over 5-7.

2023 Running Backs Drafted Rounds 5-7 (Plus notable UDFAs)

Part of this stems from these later round backs having to earn touches and work their way up a depth chart. After all, the draft capital constitutes that teams don’t have to play them.

Because they can only gain opportunity by showing out their talent in practices or preseason, I would highly recommend a lean towards the talent/athleticism of Day 3 running backs.

If they land on a team that boasts a weak running back depth chart, then that should be added to the equation. But if all else is equal, go with the best player you think can deliver when called upon.

Tyler Allgeier was that guy for me last season. I loved him coming out as a prospect, but he faltered slightly after he fell to the fifth round. However, he did get a favorable landing spot on a weak Atlanta Falcons depth chart.

In this year’s class, there are a few notable names that fit the criteria I am looking for, but none as strongly as Allgeier did last season.

In the case of Illinois running back Chase Brown, I expect his ADP to rise potentially ahead of some Round 3-4 RBs after he landed on a Bengals depth chart that could be without Joe Mixon at some point. However, I’d be wary if his ADP rises too much because his profile doesn’t suggest he will take the job and run with it.

Brown was crazy productive last season, rushing for 1,632 yards and 10 TDs. His 329 carries ranked second in the nation and his 83 forced missed tackles ranked 3rd. Brown rushed for at least 100 yards in all but one game that he played in 2022. However, Brown benefited substantially from massive volume as his efficiency left more to be desired. His career 2.4 yards per play ranks 3rd-worst among the RBs I sampled from this year’s class. Brown tested extremely well at the NFL scouting combine finishing first in both the first in the vertical jump (40?, 94th percentile) and broad jump (127?, 93rd percentile). He also ran a 4.43 40-yard dash. The final word with Brown is that he can lead a backfield based on his experience. But it’s more likely to end in empty volume than truly improve an NFL offense’s actual efficiency. Sounds a lot like what he saw last season from Mixon.

Outside Brown, there are five Day 3 running backs that fit the criteria I am looking for.

The Rams traded up to draft Zach Evans. L.A. traded No. 252 and a sixth-round pick in 2024 to the Bills for Pick 215, where they selected the Ole Miss running back.

Evans spent his first two college seasons at TCU, seeing limited usage alongside fellow 2023 draft prospect Kendre Miller. Evans was the clear frontrunner in the backfield to start his sophomore campaign but suffered a turf toe injury that cut his 2021 season short. Evans would go on to transfer to Ole Miss at the start of the 2022 season, where he posted his best college counting stats to date with a 17 percent dominator rating. His 15% boom percentage per Sports Info Solutions led all RBs in his class.

However, he failed to fully take over at the backfield as he did at TCU, losing out on touches to freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. The fact that Evans has struggled to fully take over a backfield at the college level – along with no contributing role as a receiver – is a major red flag as he makes his way into the NFL, but his efficient play when on the field suggests he can deliver when called upon. His career average of 3.47 yards per play ranks second-best among the incoming rookie RBs I sampled earlier this offseason. Evans also boasts decent size at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds – albeit the weight he measured at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine was much lighter than his listed weight at Ole Miss (216 pounds).

At the Ole Miss pro day, Evans posted a 4.45 40-time (85th percentile), ran a 4.26 20-yard shuttle (54th percentile) and finished the 3-cone drill in 7.08 seconds (48th percentile).

Evans’ best-case scenario was landing on a weak depth chart, and there is nobody threatening behind Cam Akers in the Rams backfield.

The Vikings’ 7^th-round pick DeWayne McBride headlines the RB class this season with a 4.18 average yards per snap. It’s the highest mark I’ve tracked over the past three draft classes. It’s a testament to just how elite McBride was as a rusher in three years at UAB, considering he was a complete non-factor in the passing game with just five receptions during his entire collegiate career. Even so, McBride totaled a top-five dominator rating (27%) for his excellent efforts.

If the Vikings move on from Dalvin Cook, it’s just McBride competing with Alexander Mattison for starting reps in the Minnesota backfield.

Jets running back Israel Abanikanda is just 20 years old and has the speed to burn at 216 pounds (4.40 time). In his breakout 2022 season, he rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns (1.9 per game) en route to a 39% dominator rating (tied for the highest mark in the class). Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF’s eighth-highest rusher in his draft class. There’s a small path for the 20-year-old him to see work in Gang Green should Breece Hall return slowly from his torn ACL injury. The market also seems to be “down” on Abanikanda after some believed he would earn better draft capital.

Eric Gray first burst onto the college football scene at Tennessee in 2020, rushing for 758 yards and four TDs with 31 catches for 262 yards en route to a 26% dominator rating as a sophomore. After the season, Gray transferred to Oklahoma for his last two years of college ball. His numbers fell after he lost his starting job in 2021, but he regained RB1 duties the following year. And he made his final year count, posting a 26% dominator rating with Kennedy Brooks off to the NFL.

Gray finished the 2022 season third in the class in PFF receiving grade and fifth in PFF rushing grade. The 5-foot-9 and 207-pound rusher finished the year third in positive rushing EPA and fourth in boom rate (rushes generating an EPA of one-plus). And per Sports Info Solutions, Gray posted the highest missed tackle rate per 100 touches in the class.

It’s also entirely possible that Gray could have been selected earlier by the Giants if they had more picks available to them. Big Blue didn’t have any other picks after 73^rd overall until they selected Gray with the 172^nd pick. Considering Saquon Barkley has yet to sign his franchise tag, Gray is a player worth monitoring. New York’s RB depth chart is barren behind Barkley. Could easily see this Giants coaching staff falling in love with Gray. He totaled 549 carries in college and never fumbled.

New Colts running back Evan Hull spent the past two seasons owning his team’s backfield as a mega-producer posting back-to-back seasons with a 35% dominator rating. The 5-foot-10 and 209-pound back hauled in 87 passes for 800 receiving yards as a full-blown three-down back while forcing over 100 missed tackles. With a decorated production profile and desirable athleticism – 78th percentile or better tester in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and 3-cone drill – Hull should have no issues rising to No. 2 on the Colts RB depth chart.

He could even carve out a separate receiving role after leading all FBS running backs in receptions and receiving yards in 2022.

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