The WR position can be a landmine in fantasy football. The position tends to see elite performers come off the board quickly, and that can cause managers to panic and reach for a player. However, rather than sink your season before it starts, here are some pass catchers you should avoid in the early rounds of your drafts.
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Wide Receivers To Avoid
All Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings courtesy of Underdog Fantasy
Davante Adams (WR – LV) | WR7
You can’t argue against Davante Adams being a dominant force in fantasy football. Over his last seven seasons, he’s had five top-12 PPR campaigns, and his worst season finish was the overall PPR WR23. In 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, he finished as the overall PPR WR3 with 100 catches resulting in 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns.
With QB Derek Carr at the helm last season, Adams’ Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 12.8 yards ranked 9th among qualifying WRs (minimum 100 targets), and his 15.2 Yards Per Reception (YPR) ranked fifth. However, Carr was shipped off to New Orleans earlier this offseason, and the team acquired former 49ers and Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo to take over behind center. And while Carr was known to throw bombs down the field – he ranked fifth in QB aDOT (9.7 yards) among players with a minimum of 167 dropbacks – Garoppolo is not. His QB aDOT of 7.3 yards ranked 34th.
While it would be silly to fade Adams’ talent, there are some concerns. First, there has been chatter leading up to the NFL Draft that the team may invest early in a rookie QB. If this is true, we could see Garoppolo benched at some point during the season, which would all but tank Adams’ value. In addition, he is approaching the dreaded WR age cliff and will turn 31 near the end of the season.
I wouldn’t bet on him finishing outside the overall top 24 WRs in 2023. However, with a current Average Draft Position (ADP) of WR7 on Underdog, Adams isn’t worth his capital and should be avoided in your drafts.
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) | WR5
Bills WR Stefon Diggs has been a phenomenal talent, more so since joining the Buffalo Bills in 2020. In three seasons calling upstate New York home, Diggs’ worst fantasy finish was as the overall PPR WR7 in 2021. Last season he was the overall PPR WR4, logging 119 catches for 1,578 yards and 11 touchdowns.
While it was a statistically impressive season, he saw a massive dip in Weeks 14 through 17 (the heart of the fantasy football playoffs) and was the overall PPR WR61. We saw him briefly return to form in Week 18, where he caught seven of ten targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. However, when the team needed him most in the Divisional Round against Cincinnati, Diggs failed to show up, catching four passes for a meek 35 yards. His frustration with QB Josh Allen was visible on the sidelines, and some comments on social media since the game would lead you to believe he is still unhappy.
Although the rapid statistical decline is undoubtedly a cause for concern, there is also the issue of his discontent and the fact that he will be turning 30 midway through the 2023 season. Much like Adams, I’m not ready to write off Diggs altogether, but his ADP as the WR5 is far too rich for my blood, and it should be for yours as well.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) | WR20
There may not be a more polarizing WR2-tier player than the Chargers’ Mike Williams. The talent is undeniable, but the results have needed to be more consistent. Over his first six seasons in the league, he has finished in the WR3-tier or higher only three times, including as the overall PPR WR12 in 2021. That season was the sole time in his career where he logged over 100 targets (122) and only his second season with over 1,000 receiving yards (1,146).
The Chargers are looking to rebound after a disappointing 2022 campaign that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is out and Kellen Moore, who held the same position in Dallas, has taken over. Moore favors a much more run-heavy offense than Lombardi, which isn’t a good sign for Williams. He is currently slated as the team’s WR2 behind Keenan Allen, and there has been a lot of chatter leading up to the NFL Draft that the organization is targeting the WR position in the first round.
Given the fact that he is still slotted in behind Allen and that there’s likely to be additional competition for targets with an incoming rookie, it makes it hard to see Williams living up to his ADP of WR20. A lot can change between now and August, but it’s difficult to see any of that change being good for the veteran wideout. Passing on him at his current ADP could save you a lot of headaches in 2023 and keep your championship dreams alive.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.