We’re already approaching Week 4 of the 2023 fantasy baseball season as we continue to evaluate our rosters on a daily basis.
The Weekly Fantasy Baseball Planner aims to provide insight into the best and worst matchups for the upcoming week while gauging which bubble players to include or avoid in those matchups. Remember, the idea is to focus on the players who aren’t weekly locks in your lineup but rather those on the fringe. We know the Mike Trouts and Shohei Ohtanis of the world are no-doubters but let’s dial in on some bubble players to target or bench for the upcoming week.
Let’s get to it!
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Favorable Matchups
Cleveland Guardians: vs. COL (3), @ BOS (3)
The Cleveland Guardians don’t get the luxury of taking on the Rockies in Colorado but should still be able to take on a pitching staff that ranks 23rd with a 5.23 ERA on the road to begin the week. Afterward, the Guardians travel to a hitter-friendly Fenway Park in Boston where they take on a Red Sox pitching staff that also ranks 23rd with a 5.37 ERA at home so far this season.
Players to Target
Oscar Gonzalez is seeing just 33% rostership in Yahoo leagues but should be a strong consideration for this upcoming week.
It’s been a sluggish start for Gonzalez who is hitting just .156 with a .458 OPS in 15 games. However, the good news is he launched his first homer of the season as part of Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Tigers, a 424-foot shot to the left field seats. Gonzalez clubbed 11 homers in 91 games last season while adding nine in just 41 Triple-A contests.
His slow start has cost him playing time as he didn’t start Wednesday’s series finale in Detroit but he’s still appeared in 15 of the Guardians’ 19 games on the season. Don’t be surprised to see Gonzalez take off after snapping his homerless drought.
Mike Zunino is being rostered in just 6% of Yahoo leagues but if you’re in need of some catching help this week he’s a solid option behind the plate.
He’s homered just once in 48 plate appearances on the season but sports a healthy .237 isolated power on the back of six doubles on the season. There are only 12 players in all of baseball with more doubles than Zunino to this point with all but one of those players making at least 62 trips to the plate.
He’ll face a lefty to begin the week in the Rockies’ Austin Gomber and finishes his week with three games in Boston with the Green Monster sitting just 310 feet from home plate. He should be able to continue his early-season power surge next week.
Arizona Diamondbacks: vs. KC (3), @ COL (3)
The D-backs have the best matchup of the upcoming week as they begin with three games against the Royals and finish with a trio of contests at Coors Field against the Rockies. As it turns out, they will take on two of the worst pitching staffs in baseball as the Royals sit 28th with a 5.46 ERA, and the Rockies are one spot worse with a mark of 5.87. Colorado has been torched to the tune of a 6.40 ERA at Coors Field this season.
Players to Target
Ketel Marte is seeing more increased rostership than the Guardians duo above, but he’s still under 70% at Yahoo and under 75% at ESPN. Regardless, he needs to be in your lineup in Week 4.
Marte hasn’t been able to approach his MVP-caliber work from the 2019 season but he’s off to a nice start in 2023. He has two homers, six doubles, a triple, and a stolen base so far in 17 games while striking out just 12.3% of the time. He’s especially hot at the moment as he’s recorded three consecutive multi-hit games with a triple and a homer in that time.
The switch-hitting second baseman absolutely needs to be rostered against some weak pitching next week.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. got off to a slow start this season but his bat has come around of late.
The D-backs outfielder has at least one hit in six of his last eight games with a trio of three-hit games in that time. He’s recorded four doubles, a triple, and a home run during that stretch as he continues to regress positively following a slow start.
Don’t expect the surge to dry up anytime soon. A career .284 hitter, Gurriel is hitting just .258 on the season despite sitting in the 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate. His .136 ISO is well below his .181 mark for his career while his .290 wOBA is well below his .349 expected mark for the season.
Ride the younger Gurriel into Week 4.
Unfavorable Matchups
Chicago White Sox: @ TOR (3), @ TB (4)
The Blue Jays rotation has struggled in the early going and the White Sox avoid Kevin Gausman in their three-game set in Toronto. Nonetheless, they also finish up with four games in Tampa Bay against the league-best Rays who rank first with a 2.57 team ERA this season.
Toronto’s group should improve moving forward as the White Sox boast a bottom-10 overall offense so far this season.
Players to Avoid
Eloy Jimenez, OF
It’s been a disastrous start to the season for Eloy Jimenez who is hitting just .190 without a homer alongside a 30.5% K-rate across 11 games since coming off the injured list. The oft-injured outfielder doesn’t appear to be the victim of poor luck, either, as he ranks in the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate, 27th in average exit velocity, ninth in xwOBA, 15th in xBA, ninth in xSLG, seventh in whiff rate, and second in chase rate. He’s just not seeing the ball well.
It’s certainly going to be a tough week to get things turned around.
If you’ve yet to cut ties with Andrew Benintendi, now is the time to do so.
He’s still seeing 58% of rostership in Yahoo leagues despite not offering any value at the plate. The veteran is hitting .273 but he’s yet to homer in 70 plate appearances. He hit just five home runs last season in 126 games. He does have two steals, four doubles, and 11 runs scored on the season but also just four RBI and a .263 xwOBA.
Of course, his lack of power is evident but he also ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate. That’s…not a good combination for fantasy managers.
New York Yankees: @MIN (3), @ TEX (4)
There’s no doubt the Yankees will face some very good pitching in Week 4.
They begin with three contests in Minnesota where they’ll take on the league’s second-ranked pitching staff with a 2.69 ERA. They face an emerging Joe Ryan to begin their week while Jacob deGrom is scheduled to open the four-game set in Texas despite leaving his last start with wrist soreness. The Rangers rank eighth with a 3.49 ERA as a team.
Players to Avoid
Anthony Volpe has delivered on his stolen base upside so far as he’s racked up eight steals on the season while walking at a 16.9% clip. However, he’s also hitting just .204 with only one homer and two RBI across the first 18 games of his big-league career.
It could take some time for Volpe to develop his power after homering just three times in 22 games at Triple-A where he posted a lukewarm .169 ISO. He has just three extra-base knocks so far in the big leagues.
The future is obviously extremely bright but the youngster is going to see some tough pitching in Week 4.
Anthony Rizzo isn’t exactly a bubble fantasy player after homering a career-high 32 times last season while he’s launched just four so far this season. However, all four of his long balls have come at Yankee Stadium, a venue that plays perfectly to Rizzo’s left-handed swing. Nineteen of his 32 homers last season came at home versus 13 on the road.
Target Field in Minnesota and the new Globe Life Field in Texas aren’t favorable venues for left-handed hitters. As good as he’s been to begin the season, this is a week we could see some regression kick in for Rizzo.
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