It’s Thursday. You know what that means.
Each and every Thursday during the fantasy baseball season, we’ll be doing a stock report, looking at the players who are improving their value on a week-to-week basis.
Now, as the season goes on, these will prove to be more valuable as dealing with a tiny sample of the first week of the season is hard to really take anything away.
But I highlighted six players who I’ve watched closely who I have found some reasons to be optimistic or pessimistic about in the first week.
If there are players you want me to dive into, feel free to tag me on Twitter @MichaelWaterloo.
Now, without any further ado, let’s get to it.
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Fantasy Baseball Stock Report
Stock Up:
So, we can put it out there right now that Chapman will not hit .522 on the season. I’m not sure what the odds are on that, but you can put your life savings down that he’ll hit under .400.
What I like seeing from him, though, is his quality of contact. Chapman has a 99.7 average exit velocity – higher than the 88.4 league average – and he has five barrels so far on the season. What’s more, the K% is at 16 percent, which is well below his career average.
He’s had poor home run luck so far, but as they get out of Kansas City, I can see that correcting.
Stock Down:
Kelenic does well in Spring Training. Kelenic struggles in the big leagues. Is this a thought from 2021, 2022, or 2023? It’s evergreen, folks.
It’s early (last time I’m using the caveat), but Kelenic has a 43.8 percent strikeout rate so far this season. He’s especially struggled early on against fastballs and offspeed offerings, hitting a combined .143 on the 56 such offerings.
The hard-hit metrics are up, but if he doesn’t get the Ks under control, he’ll forever be a Quad-A player.
Stock Up:
Luzardo has been out of this world this season, with a 31K% through two outings. What’s more, the whiffs have been up, as he’s had full command of his four-pitch arsenal.
The velocity is up across the board, and the slider and fastball combination looks nearly unhittable when he’s locating.
Here are some highlights from his outing on Wednesday.
Wednesday takeaways:
– Jesus Luzardo was ON one. Went 6.2 IP, walked 1, 10 Ks. Velo was up on all four of his pitches. He generated 18 Whiffs on the day. Here are all 18. #Marlins #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/RgktCf8ZNq
– Michael Waterloo (@MichaelWaterloo) April 6, 2023
Stock Down:
I didn’t have Olson on my card to lead the league in strikeouts, but that’s what he’s doing so far. Olson has a 42.9 K% this season, but when he has hit the ball, it’s been loud.
Olson has five barrels so far and his average EV is 100.1.
What Olson hasn’t been able to do, though, is handle fastballs. The opposition is throwing fastballs 62.6 percent of the time, and Olson has an xBA of .150 against the pitch with eight strikeouts in 19 plate appearances. Against breaking balls and offspeed offerings, Olson has xBA marks of .484 and .442, respectively.
Stock Up:
If you drafted Mitchell, you did so for stolen bases. The bad news is he has exactly zero so far on the season. However, the good news is he’s developing into a well-rounded player instead. Mitchell has three home runs on the young season – including a walk-off homer on Wednesday.
Before Opening Day, I put the call out to people to ask me about a player, and I’d tell them what I expected from them.
Someone asked about Mitchell.
Comes down to the GB% for me. So high in the minors. If he can keep it down, 30-steal season. If not, OF4 on his own team. https://t.co/nZTRAWW2Kp
– Michael Waterloo (@MichaelWaterloo) March 29, 2023
So far, so good for the UCLA product.
He’s lowered the strikeout rate to a good 22.7 percent, but even more impressive so far is that his launch angle – which was 9.5 degrees last season – is at 16.2 degrees so far this season. In turn, and definitely a product of the launch angle, is the improved groundball rate. The GB rate is down to 20 percent after it was 41.2 last season.
The speed will play no matter what, but it’s these gains that are important for Mitchell to keep in order to become a true dependable fantasy player.
Stock Down:
Castellanos was one of my guys this year and frankly, he still is. But I do have to say that I’m slightly concerned with the early-season results.
Castellanos has just 10 batted balls so far, but his average EV on those balls is 82.4 mph. That mark would be the worst mark among all qualified hitters last season.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
