We’ve all mistakenly reached on a player in our fantasy drafts. There are those guys we want to believe will finally show the world who they are, the ones we project are in a better situation and should improve, or the player who is due for a breakout. It’s easy to be blinded by the idea that “talent always wins out.” While that sounds nice, we also know this isn’t true.

Eliminating bias and evaluating a situation can save you from making these mistakes come August. Here are three players I believe won’t live up to expectations in 2023.

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Fantasy Football Players to Avoid (2023)

Rankings based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) ECR 56 | TE5

There might not be a more frustrating player in fantasy football than Kyle Pitts. The freakishly athletic Atlanta Falcons TE out of the University of Florida was all but anointed a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer coming into the league in 2021. His rookie campaign was productive, seeing him finish as the overall PPR TE6, racking up 1,026 receiving yards on 68 catches while only scoring one touchdown. However, 2022 saw a serious regression for Pitts, where he averaged only 7.6 fantasy points per game across ten games, 23rd best in the league in that span.

Between below-average QB play from veteran Marcus Mariota and a run-heavy scheme on offense, Pitts didn’t see much usage in the passing game. While his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) was sixth best among TEs (13.7), he logged only 28 receptions and was 20th in route run percentage (88.7). Furthermore, his catch rate was a concerning 50 percent and he was only targeted in the red zone five times.

While there’s always a chance Pitts could turn things around in 2023, I wouldn’t bank on it. With head coach Arthur Smith still at the helm, the team apparently content to roll out second-year QB Desmond Ridder as the starter, and with their offseason acquisition of veteran TE Jonnu Smith, it will be more of the same in Atlanta. Unfortunately, this case shows just how much landing spot matters. If his current ranking holds, you’re better off leaving Pitts to another manager in your league.

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) ECR 44 | RB19

There wasn’t much to like in the Houston Texans offense in 2022, with the exception of a few flashes of brilliance from then-rookie RB Dameon Pierce. Before suffering a season-ending ankle injury late in Week 14, Pierce was the overall PPR RB15, logging nine games with ten or more fantasy points. With an inept passing attack and almost no competition for carries, Pierce was the focal point on the Texans’ offense when he was on the field.

2023 is a new year, and the Texans have a new head coach and will likely have a rookie QB under center to start the season. The team will put the ball in the air more often and will likely lean on Pierce less than they needed last season. The team signed free agent running back Devin Singletary, signaling they want to lessen Pierce’s workload in 2023. Singletary was reliable and efficient last season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 7.37 yards per reception, and had six total touchdowns on his way to being the overall PPR RB23. It wouldn’t make sense for the team to bring in someone of his caliber as a change-of-pace back to compliment Pierce. This is now likely a running-back-by-committee situation.

The talent is undeniable, but it’s hard to see a path for Pierce to live up to his current ECR ranking in a situation like this. His ceiling is likely closer to the mid-RB3 tier. Again, this isn’t an indictment on Pierce as a player or his future in the league, but for the 2023 season, he’s best left off your redraft fantasy football rosters.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) ECR 19 | RB11

No one was more excited than me when the New England Patriots let Damien Harris leave in free agency. It appeared to be a sign that third-year RB Rhamondre Stevenson would finally get a shot to be the stand-alone RB1. He finished as the overall PPR RB7 last season with 1,040 rushing yards on top of 69 catches for 421 yards. However, that is beginning to look less and less the case.

It seems the Patriots are on the verge of an offensive shake-up. Rumors are swirling that the team has been shopping QB Mac Jones and could possibly be entering the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes. They also acquired veteran RB James Robinson, who will be two years removed from an Achilles’ tendon tear, and second-year RB Pierre Strong looked very good in his few chances as a rookie. He logged ten carries for 100 rushing yards and caught all seven of his targets for 42 yards.

It would be crazy to write off Stevenson altogether. He is still incredibly talented and will be a fantasy-relevant player in 2023. That said, there is too much uncertainty in Foxboro to say he can replicate his 2022 season. Bill O’Brien is back in town as the offensive coordinator, and there has been chatter that the Patriots could be looking at taking an RB in the first three rounds of the upcoming NFL Draft. This figures to be a more dynamic, pass-heavy offense this upcoming season, and Stevenson will likely see a downturn in volume all-round. If his current ECR holds up into August, you’re best to let him land on another manager’s roster.

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.