Another week of USFL action is on tap. After two weeks, there’s more data to work with when making DFS picks. Yet, last week was a perfect reminder about how quickly things can change after some meaningful performers in Week 1 fell out of favor in Week 2. So, the following picks balance previous performance with educated guesswork.
Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles 
Quarterbacks
The quarterback picks are the same as last week. The three listed signal callers aren't sharing snaps with another quarterback on their team. Additionally, the first two listed options are in the two most pass-happy offenses.
Through two weeks, league-average situation-neutral pass rates are trending higher than 2022.
* New Jersey remains the league's run-heaviest team
* #OurStars continue to chuck pic.twitter.com/0KeSauCV6L— Cody Main (@cmain7) April 25, 2023
McLeod Bethel-Thompson and Case Cookus have made the most of their pass-heavy offenses. The former leads the USFL in passing yards per game (277.0), and the latter is second (247.5). No other quarterbacks have passed for more than 195.0 yards per game. Bethel-Thompson and Cookus have thrown for three touchdowns each, too.
There are a few advantages for Cookus, though. First, Bethel-Thompson has rushed for 23 yards, and Cookus has rumbled for 43. Second, the Stars pass more often in neutral game scripts. Third, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Breakers are 6.5-point underdogs, and the Stars are 6.5-point favorites. The Breakers' implied total is 21.0 points against the juggernaut Stallions, and the Stars' implied total is 24.25 points against the lowly Maulers. So, Bethel-Thompson is a high-upside tournament pick. Cookus is my favorite choice in cash games and a high-ceiling tourney selection.
However, Alex McGough gives Cookus a run for his money as the top quarterback selection this week. Birmingham's implied total is a week-high 27.5 points. The dual-threat quarterback was sharp as Birmingham's full-time starter last week against the Showboats. This year, he's passed for 369 yards and five touchdowns. McGough's also rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown. The discount for pivoting to McGough is exciting, too.
Running Backs
There aren't many workhorse running backs in the USFL. However, Alex Collins fits the bill.
Through Week 2, Memphis Showboats RB Alex Collins is second in the league in rush share (69.4%) on 80.0% of the team's snaps.
He also leads all RBs in target share (21.7%) and has handled 7-of-14 RZ opportunities
— Cody Main (@cmain7) April 27, 2023
Collins has parlayed his bell-cow role into 50.0 rushing yards per game, one rushing touchdown, 3.5 receptions per game and 17.5 receiving yards per game. Thus, Collins has a high ceiling and is a game-script-proof running back.
Reggie Corbin doesn't even lead his team in rushes. He's rushed 20 times versus 23 for Stevie Scott. It doesn't matter. Corbin is an explosive runner, converting his attempts into a co-USFL lead for rushing yards per game (80.0) and two rushing touchdowns. He was a dynamic runner last year and hasn't lost a step. Corbin's explosiveness was on full display on the following touchdown run.
REGGIE TOLD Y'ALL!!! ?
24-10 Panthers #LetsHunt? pic.twitter.com/29CKjicOht
— Michigan Panthers (@USFLPanthers) April 24, 2023
He'll have some down games since he doesn't have a robust role. Nevertheless, Corbin's big-play ability is perfect for tournaments. In addition, the game script should be good this week. The Panthers are 4.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Generals.
Wes Hills didn't play in Week 1. Then, he popped up out of nowhere. Now, the genie can't be put back in the bottle. Hills steamrolled the Gamblers for 110 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 18 attempts. Hills was also involved in the passing attack, garnering five targets for three receptions and 17 receiving yards. The team could use Anthony Jones more this week if the Breakers are in a negative game script. Still, Hills is underpriced after last week's explosion.
Mark Thompson is the guy if you're looking for a candidate to come out of nowhere, like Hills did last week. T.J. Pledger was Houston's workhorse through two games. However, Thompson was a bell-cow running back for the Gamblers last year and wasn't active through two games.
Thompson was added to the active roster last week but was inactive on game day. The big bruising back might see his first action in 2023 this week. The Gamblers released Devwah Whaley, transferred Thompson to the active roster on Thursday and declared him a full go on their game status report. Their Twitter account also shared a video of Thompson practicing.
All in the details ?@InMarkWeTrust pic.twitter.com/6nG9XiEgIl
— Houston Gamblers (@USFLGamblers) April 25, 2023
Could they be tipping their hand for Thompson getting involved this week? Maybe. Thompson could be behind Pledger this week. Yet, Thompson was a productive runner last year, averaging 51.4 rushing yards per game. Being bold in tournaments and rolling the dice on Thompson can be game-changing in a cushy matchup. The Showboats have allowed the most rushing yards per game (133.0). Finally, the Gamblers are 3.0-point favorites. So, the game script could lend itself to the Gamblers pounding the ball between the tackles against Memphis's soft run defense.
Zaquandre White is a safer value option than Thompson. C.J. Marable leads the Stallions in rushes (25) and rushing yards (92). However, White burst onto the scene for 72 rushing yards and two touchdowns on eight attempts in Week 2 after being inactive in Week 1. Birmingham is a 6.5-point favorite, and the Stallions have the second-highest rush rate in neutral game scripts, per Cody Main from Establish The Run.
In addition, White passed the eyeball test last week.
ON REPEAT! ? ?@Iam_ZWhite breaks through for another TOUCHDOWN! pic.twitter.com/SyU2RLspsD
— Birmingham Stallions (@USFLStallions) April 23, 2023
Bo Scarbrough gave the Stallions a boost last year, and White could do the same for them this year.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Sage Surratt is the most egregiously mispriced player on the slate. He leads the USFL in receiving yards per game (103.0), YAC (140) and receptions (16). He's also tied with teammate Jonnie Dixon for the league lead in targets (20). Unfortunately, Dixon's converted his target volume into only seven receptions for 96 receiving yards and a touchdown. Nonetheless, his ability to earn targets at a high rate should lead to a big performance sooner rather than later.
Jonathan Adams is behind Surratt and Dixon in the pecking order. He's a massive target for Bethel-Thompson and is used vertically, though.
Believe a big game is coming for New Orleans Breakers WR Jonathan Adams:
* 90.6% routes per dropback
* 21.8% Air Yards share on 12.9-yard aDOT
* Meager 12.3% target share feels like small-sample noise for the 6-3, 220-pound alpha— Cody Main (@cmain7) April 27, 2023
He was a boom-or-bust receiver last year and could follow a similar path this year.
Devin Gray and Corey Coleman are Philadelphia's most productive pass-catchers. Gray's third in the league in targets (18), and Coleman is fourth (17). Gray has 15 receptions for 144 yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Coleman has 11 receptions for 124 receiving yards. Coleman also had a carry out of the backfield last week and has rushed for three yards.
Unfortunately, Chris Rowland missed last week with a hamstring injury. He was a helpful weapon from the slot and the backfield in Week 1, hauling in three receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown and rushing three times for 22 yards. Rowland is a fun value option if he's back this week. And if he's out, Diondre Overton is an intriguing tournament dart. He reeled in all three of his targets for 49 yards in Week 2.
Jace Sternberger's excelled as an efficient weapon for the Stallions. He has 10 receptions for 189 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 targets. So, he's the best stacking option with McGough and a sweet one-off pick.
Pittsburgh's offense is a joke. Regardless, Isiah Hennie was a target vacuum last week. The wideout/returner had team highs in targets (11), receptions (nine) and receiving yards (53).
Trey Quinn hasn't dazzled. Still, he's tied for second on the Panthers in targets (eight). The shifty slot wideout has six receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown. The ceiling isn't exciting for Quinn, but he's an adequate punt.
Defense and Special Teams
The Stallions are tied for the largest betting favorite this week and at home. Obviously, that's a fantastic starting point. In addition, they've allowed the fewest points (10) this season, recorded 5.0 sacks and forced four turnovers.
The Stars are the other co-biggest betting favorite this week. However, their home game is in Detroit. Although, the matchup makes up for the lack of a genuine field-field advantage. The Maulers haven't scored an offensive touchdown in two games. They scored a defensive touchdown and a punt return touchdown in Week 1 and three points in Week 2.
They've yet to amass more than 170 yards on offense. Moreover, the Maulers have turned the ball over three times and allowed six sacks. Pittsburgh's offense is a trainwreck. So, this is a dreamy matchup for Philadelphia's defense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
