It’s an abbreviated MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em slate tonight. There are games throughout the day, but only six games starting at 6:40 pm ET or later. Still, there are plenty of player props to pick from. The following five picks are the most exciting options, with some correlation between a few of them.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Christian Yelich: 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Sadly, Yelich isn’t what he was during his MVP season and subsequent season for the Brewers. Regardless, the left-handed-hitting outfielder does well at home against righties. According to FanGraphs, he’s had a .372 OBP, .167 ISO, .346 wOBA and 120 wRC+ in 406 plate appearances against righties at American Family Field.
Yelich’s home ballpark is great for extra-base hits for lefties. Left-handed batters have park factors of 1.036 for doubles, 1.136 for triples and 1.158 for homers. Additionally, Yelich’s fantasy scoring outlook is enhanced by hitting leadoff and facing Jack Flaherty. Lefties had a .368 wOBA against Flaherty in 2022. Thus, Yelich can have a productive game against Red Birds tonight.
Jack Flaherty: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower
Flaherty’s excellent 2018 and 2019 seasons are a distant memory. Unfortunately, injuries and regression have diminished Flaherty’s production. The righty has pitched fewer than 100 innings in each of the previous three seasons and fewer than 50 in two of three.
Flaherty’s ability to miss bats and induce swings on pitches out of the strike zone has cratered. As a result, his strikeout rate has taken a nosedive. Flaherty had a career-low 19.8 K% and a career-high 13.2 BB% in 2022. It got worse in his first start of this year. He had a 31.8 BB% and 18.2 K%, walking seven batters and striking out only four in 5.0 innings. Flaherty also hit a batter in his 2023 debut. The wheels have fallen off the bus for Flaherty, making his under an easy pick.
C.J. Cron: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Cron becomes a superhero when he faces a lefty at Coors Field. In 183 plate appearances against lefties at Coors Field since 2021, he has had a 9.8 BB%, 25.7 K%, .388 OBP, .391 ISO, .445 wOBA, 157 wRC+, 13 doubles, one triple and 16 homers.
Additionally, the matchup is good, and the betting info is ideal. MacKenzie Gore has had a 4.30 ERA and 4.42 xFIP in 17 appearances (14 starts) totaling 75.1 innings in The Show. And, again, the betting info is excellent. According to Betting Pros, the Rockies are -120, and the game’s total is 11.0 runs. So, runs should be plentiful, and Cron should get in on the action as Colorado’s cleanup hitter.
Kris Bryant: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Bryant has raked with the platoon advantage. In 231 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he’s had a .296 batting average, .549 slugging, .252 ISO, 33 singles, 16 doubles and 12 homers. Unfortunately, Bryant’s first year with the Rockies last season was marred by injuries. As a result, he doesn’t have a big sample of plate appearances at home, especially against lefties.
Still, the park factors are a boon for Bryant’s chances to exceed 1.5 total bases. Right-handed batters have park factors of 1.169 for singles, 1.395 for doubles, 1.535 for triples and 1.301 for homers at Coors Field. Finally, Gore is below-average against right-handed batters. The most significant threat to Bryant having more than 1.5 total bases is Gore walking him multiple times. Still, the over is a compelling pick.
Madison Bumgarner: 4.0 Strikeouts – Lower
Bumgarner is toast. Tonight will be the Dodgers’ second look at MadBum this year. Los Angeles chased Bumgarner from his first start with four hits, four walks, five earned runs and only two strikeouts in 4.0 innings. Bumgarner mentioned arm fatigue after the first start. The organization examined him and cleared him to start tonight. Still, MadBum’s arm fatigue is suboptimal for facing a team that just hammered him last week.
Even if he finds a little extra something this time, it probably won’t be enough to punch many hitters out. He’s struck out more than four batters only once in his previous seven starts. He’s also struck out more than four batters only twice in six starts against the Dodgers as a member of the Diamondbacks. Bumgarner had just a 16.0 K% and 6.35 K/9 last season. Finally, Bumgarner’s 23.9 CSW% was the fourth-lowest mark out of 62 pitchers who threw at least 150 innings in 2022. Thus, strikeouts will be hard to come by for the 33-year-old lefty tonight.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.