Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Primer: Tight Ends

In addition to this article about tight ends, you can check out my deep dives on positions below, starting with quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. I’ll continue to provide 2023 NFL Draft coverage, culminating in my top-500 NFL Draft rankings and big board ahead of the first pick being announced later this month.

• Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Primer: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
• NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
• Latest Big Board
• NFL Draft Prop Bet Cards: Freedman | Weyrauch | Erickson
• 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles

Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft TE Rankings

1. Dalton Kincaid | Utah | 6035/246 | RAS: N/A

Player comparison: Todd Heap

Bio

Up until October, Dalton Kincaid was a well-kept secret. You probably didn’t know his name if you weren’t a Utes fan or a diehard college football fan. That’s not really his fault.

From Nevada, Kincaid focused on basketball as a youth. He helped lead his team to an AAU National Championship as a teenager. Kincaid was a physical post player with sweet feet and a “my-ball” attitude on rebounds. He played only one season of high school football and picked up the sport quickly enough that he decided to play it in college. His best opportunity was at FCS San Diego, a program that doesn’t offer athletic scholarships. Kincaid broke out in 2019, earning FCS All-American honors in his second year.

That campaign naturally drew the interest of the FBS, but during Kincaid’s re-recruitment process, the COVID pandemic began, and he ultimately committed to Utah. Restrictions on practices meant Kincaid didn’t get as much work with his new team and teammates as he otherwise would have. The Utes played only five games that season – the Pac-12 drastically slashed its schedule and eliminated non-conference games. Kincaid played 99 snaps over those five games; he caught only one pass.

The following year, in 2021, with an entire offseason under his belt, Kincaid flashed as a compliment to TE Brant Kuithe in Utah’s two-TE offense. Kincaid finished with a 36-510-8 receiving line. He entered the 2022 campaign viewed as a watch-list prospect for NFL scouts – still anonymous to casual fans. He started well in September, reeling in four TD catches in those four games. But it wasn’t until Kuithe’s season-ending injury in late September when Kincaid truly took off.

That injury thrust Kincaid into an actual bell-cow role in Utah’s passing offense. Utah’s game against USC on Oct. 15 was the most anticipated Pac-12 regular season matchup on the schedule. The Utes needed Kincaid to go off to have any chance of keeping up with USC’s powerful offense. This was the last day Dalton Kincaid was unknown. Kincaid went ballistic, catching all 16 balls thrown his way for a 16-234-1 receiving line. The Trojans could not cover him. During the Utes’ ensuing march to the Pac-12 title game and Rose Bowl, we discovered that nobody else could, either.

Kincaid earned third-team All-American honors and a Mackey semifinalist nod for his 2022 work. He posted a 70-890-8 receiving line despite missing the Rose Bowl with a small fracture in his back. The injury prevented Kincaid from testing during the pre-draft process. But he’ll still hear his name called in the first round later this month. Kincaid has a real shot to be the first tight end off the board, an incredible turn of events for a guy who six years ago had never played a serious down of football.

Strengths

Nightmare coverage assignment. Big, fluid, and one of the surest sets of hands at the position to enter the NFL over the past five years.

Last year, Kincaid’s snap distribution was 55.1% in the slot, 9.5% wide, and 35.4% inline. Kincaid is a handful wherever he winds up when the ball is snapped. He’s a route-running natural, and the nimble feet that made him a difficult matchup in the post during his hoop-playing days shine in this area. Kincaid shows good pacing on the hunt and has a real knack for throttling up-and-down into-and-out-of route breaks. He opens up enormous throwing windows in this way – unpredictable pacing, snappy change-of-direction, and quick acceleration out of the break.

Kincaid can beat you in any sector of the field. He’ll shake you in the intermediate area. But you must be careful about crowding him too much within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage because Kincaid will deceive you into biting down so he can gallop past you down the seam. He threatens deep so darn quickly. Where Kincaid truly stands out is the ball skills. You do not need a well-placed ball to complete a pass to Dalton Kincaid. If you put it within his kitchen, it’s a completion. His hands are football magnets. Spears errant throws outside his frame with ease. And he has a bigger catch radius than you’d assume. Kincaid has the same arm length as Luke Musgrave despite being two inches shorter.

Kincaid’s adjustments when the ball is descending are a thing of beauty. The subtle pivots and body-positioning that give him the best shot of reeling the ball in – his hands are like two shortstop’s mitts once it arrives. Nothing gets through his wickets. Ducks, spirals, short, long – doesn’t matter. Last fall, Kincaid posted the No. 1 PFF receiving grade in this tight end class. On eight fewer targets than Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer – Kincaid’s competition for TE1 in the class – Kincaid had three more catches for 81 more yards.

Kincaid also finished No. 3 in PFF hands grade last fall. The only surprise on this end was that he wasn’t No. 1. Despite getting peppered with targets while drawing ample coverage attention, Kincaid logged an incredible 2.8% drop rate. Only two tight ends in this class have bigger mitts than Kincaid’s 10 1/4-inch hands. Vice grips.

Kincaid’s body control, concentration, and sticky hands emphatically play in traffic. Kincaid was 9-for-18 on contested catches last year, a superb conversion rate. And while Kincaid lacks prototypical play strength for the position overall – we’ll delve into that below – he’s a handful after the catch. Kincaid converts from receiver to runner as smoothly as you’ll see in this class. He has a great sense of bodies around him in space, and his movement makes it difficult to hit him squarely. Last year, Kincaid finished No. 2 in this TE class with 16 missed tackles forced. He has a never-say-die ethos with the ball in his hands – those legs keep kicking until the whistle blows.

And not for nothing: The kid is tough as nails. He played through a back fracture in the Pac-12 Championship, and Utah beat USC again. And they may not have without Kincaid as a decoy.

In that game, Kincaid clearly wasn’t at 100 percent – every movement hurt. But so badly had Dalton Kincaid spooked USC in the previous matchup that the Trojans couldn’t stop throwing multiple guys at him in coverage, opening up spacing and opportunities for his teammates. It was legitimately incredible to watch live – the highest compliment one team can pay an opposing player. USC went into that game saying: Dalton Kincaid will not beat us again. The Trojans got their wish and lost anyway.

Weaknesses

Kincaid lacks prototypical size, a sub-250-pounder who measures a shade under 6’4. As a receiver, he plays far bigger – partly because of that distended catch radius and the conversion rate of balls placed within it. But Kincaid categorically doesn’t have the playing strength to tango with war-daddy edge rushers in the NFL as an inline guy. He wasn’t moving Pac-12 edge rushers off their spot in the run game at Utah and isn’t going to do so at the NFL level, either.

Kincaid graded out 60.0-or-lower in PFF’s run block grade in 4-of-5 college seasons, despite playing in space more than 60% of plays. His contribution to his team’s running attack is getting the strong safety out of the box – that’s about it. For this reason, Kincaid needs to be considered a big slot with the versatility to move around the alignment. I’d want to slash down his inline snaps even further than how Utah used him. And to be fair to the kid, Kincaid’s blocking in space – deployed either in the slot or out wide – is certainly passable. He doesn’t shirk his assignments. Just don’t assign him ones he has no chance of winning.

2. Michael Mayer | Notre Dame | 6044/249 | RAS: 7.57

Player comparison: Jason Witten

Bio

Dalton Kincaid seemingly came out of nowhere to enter the TE1 conversation this past fall. Michael Mayer’s story is the opposite. A case of enormous expectations fully realized. But their stories have one big similarity: Like Kincaid, Mayer’s first love wasn’t football – basketball. In fact, Mayer had no interest in playing high school football until the school’s head football coach called him.

“I loved basketball,” Mayer told ND Insider. “I wanted to play basketball in college, so I decided I wasn’t going to play football in high school.”

The coach had a very simple pitch. Play football as a freshman; if you don’t like it, feel free to quit. Mayer tried out. Turned out he liked football. In short order, Mayer was a dominant two-way star. 

Mayer didn’t stray far from Covington Catholic when he signed with the Irish as a 247 Composite five-star recruit. As a senior, Mayer was Kentucky’s Mr. Football on a team that went 15-0. Mayer was attracted to Notre Dame’s lineage of tight ends.

Here’s the most incredible stat you’ll read in this column. Since 2004, every Irish TE1 has been drafted. That run includes six Notre Dame tight ends in the first two rounds (Tyler Eifert, John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Kyle Rudolph, Troy Niklas, and Cole Kmet).

Irish fans immediately nicknamed Mayer “Baby Gronk.” Interestingly, Mayer told ESPN that he studies Travis Kelce more than Rob Gronkowski: “If I sit down and watch Travis Kelce tape, I learn 10 new things. There are a ton of things that he does in routes, and I really pride myself on the route-running game.” Mayer forced his way onto the field despite being in a TE room with Kmet, Tommy Tremble (a third-rounder), and Brock Wright (a UDFA who has out-performed expectations). Heading into his sophomore year, Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees said Mayer had a good chance to go down as Notre Dame’s best tight end of all-time.

By any metric, Mayer made good on Rees’ proclamation. In three years on campus, Mayer posted a 180-2099-18 receiving line. This while providing very strong blocking as a true dual-threat inline tight end. In only three seasons, Mayer left school as Notre Dame’s all-time leader in catches, yards, and touchdowns for a tight end. His 180 receptions are No. 3 in Irish history among all players, trailing only Michael Floyd and T.J. Jones. Mayer declared early for the NFL Draft after the season, skipping the Gator Bowl to begin his draft prep. His draft floor would seem to be the Bengals at No. 28. And what a story that would be. Mayer grew up just outside Cincinnati and has been a Bengals fan since childhood.

Strengths

An all-around tight end who brings the lunch pail. Mayer’s receiving ability is high-end. What jumped off the tape just as much was his yeoman effort. Mayer’s blocking highlight reel is worth the price of admission. He moves people and doesn’t stop working until the whistle blows. Mayer was PFF’s No. 1 graded tight end in the FBS last season. He did that in a poor offensive environment. Notre Dame didn’t have much skill talent outside of him. And the Irish were forced to roll with QB2 Drew Pyne, a noodle-armed scrambler, after the starter was knocked out for the year in early September.

Mayer was marked by opposing defenses, and his touches were force-fed. Notre Dame didn’t have another option to move the chains. With more coverage attention than ever before, Mayer continued to shine. His body positioning at the catch point could be a Tom Emanski video. Mayer is the quintessential basketball rebounder boxing out his man. His hands are extremely reliable, with a strong 5.6% drop rate in 2022. Mayer doesn’t create separation as easily as Dalton Kincaid, but he is ridiculously awesome at catching the ball in tight quarters. Last year, Mayer easily led this class with 17 contested catches. Mayer went 17-of-26 (65.4%) in those scenarios, a stupid conversion rate. Mayer can get jarred from behind and have a defender hanging off his back; he can be double-covered – it usually doesn’t matter if Michael Mayer is catching the ball.

I love Mayer’s hard-hard approach to inline work. But his receiving skill plays from anywhere on the alignment. Notre Dame moved Mayer around more than most realize. Last season, Mayer played 45.0% of his snaps in the slot, 39.9% inline, and 14.2% out wide. Mayer is as reliable in the intermediate area as you’ll see. He won’t make you miss as a runner, but Mayer can run over those who go high or leap over those who try to dive-bomb his knees. Mayer’s 12 missed-tackles-forced last fall tied for No. 5 in this class.

Weaknesses

Mayer was long considered the best tight end in this class, but Kincaid has gained rapid ground on him. This is all due to receiving utility. For all Mayer’s strength in this area, his ceiling is capped, primarily because Mayer doesn’t threaten deep like Kincaid, and Mayer is also a more limited route-runner. Mayer is detail-oriented in this phase, but he doesn’t have Kincaid’s fluidity in and out of route breaks, and he doesn’t create the separation that Kincaid does.

Mayer is exceptional in contested situations, but he gets into more of those than you’d like because he doesn’t naturally separate. Mayer posted a strong 4.7 forty at the NFL Combine, but 50th-percentile showings in both agility drills, a 76h-percentile broad jump, and a 56th-percentile vertical. Mayer’s lack of upper-echelon explosion and agility is apparent on tape. He builds up to top speed and is exaggerated and deliberate off the snap – not bouncy and explosive. Mayer is elite in contested situations – but he almost has to be for the type of game he plays. And that skill had better translate because he’s almost assuredly going to be in even more of those scenarios in the NFL.

3. Sam LaPorta | Iowa | 6033/245 | RAS: 9.02

Player comparison: Owen Daniels

LaPorta is criminally underrated. His unique game will translate cleanly to the NFL. He’s a bit of a throwback in the mold of Owen Daniels.

LaPorta is an extremely versatile weapon. Last year, his snaps were distributed about as evenly as any tight end in this entire draft class – 30.1% slot, 20.5% wide, and 48.4% inline. The year before, he played 69.2% of his snaps inline. These snaps came in about as bad of an offensive environment as you can imagine. Iowa finished No. 130 out of 131 FBS teams in yards per game. LaPorta was force-fed targets in that horrid Iowa offense – and defenses still had a very difficult time slowing him down.

For a 240-plus pounder, LaPorta is shockingly agile and sudden – both with the ball and also along his routes. He knows how to get open. Against zone coverage, LaPorta quickly identifies the soft spot and makes himself available. Against man, LaPorta neutralizes his man by splitting him down the middle, altering tempo and footwork to cover his tracks, and snapping off sudden route breaks. He leaves flat-footed defenders a few yards in his wake as he snaps his head back to the quarterback.

LaPorta is your quintessential chain mover. In the last two years, 74 of LaPorta’s 111 catches went for first downs or touchdowns (66.7%). The Hawkeye offense would have been historically-impotent without him. Don’t hold LaPorta’s low touchdown total against him. Last season, the Hawkeyes scored only 19 offensive touchdowns – four individual players scored more. A mere seven of those touchdowns came on passing plays. LaPorta finished with 24 more catches and 271 more yards than any other Iowa receiver last year. It was the second-straight year he’d led both categories by margin.

LaPorta’s special sauce comes when he has the ball in his hands. This is when his agility, vision, and power coalesce. He’s a bull-in-a-china-shop runner who weaves through traffic and doles out punishment at the contact point. If you come at LaPorta from an off-angle in space, get ready for your nose to meet your facemask via one of his nasty stiff arms. Last year, LaPorta was No. 1 among all FBS tight ends with 20 missed tackles forced. That’s the fifth-highest single-season total for a tight end over the nine seasons PFF has tracked the stat.

LaPorta was a strong, workmanlike run blocker in college. But this area of his game could use refinement. LaPorta shows much potential as a blocker in space, but his aggressive nature works against him – he can come in too hot and only deliver a glancing shot or overextend himself into contact and get slipped. In tighter quarters, you like LaPorta’s haste in getting to the correct shoulder to win leverage, but he simply doesn’t have the play power to neutralize power ends. With some technical work, LaPorta projects as a solid space blocker working out of the slot. But against teams with powerful, long-levered ends, you’d prefer someone else inline handling that assignment.

LaPorta needs to cut down his 9.4% drop rate from last season (career: 8.4%). He reminded me a little of Quentin Johnston in terms of technique at the catch point in that both players are by-the-book extenders on the difficult catches – downfield, full-extension stabs of errant throws outside their frames – and more nonchalant on the easy stuff. Like Johnston, LaPorta sometimes appears to be thinking about his run-after-the-catch on the easy stuff. This is when the ball gets more into their frames, leading to a few extra flubs. LaPorta needs to understand that he’s a preternaturally skilled runner who doesn’t need to sacrifice catch-point technique for head starts in that department.

Lastly, while LaPorta is a problem in the short-and-intermediate areas, he’s not as effective down the field. He also needs to separate to give himself a shot to flex his run-after-the-catch muscles. Over LaPorta’s career, he was a mere 18-of-44 in contested situations.

4. Darnell Washington | Georgia | 6065/264 | RAS: 9.88

Player comparison: Martellus Bennett

Darnell Washington is an alien. He’s nearly 6-foot-7 and will play in the NFL at over 270 pounds. He played games in college over 280, and his frame would easily support additional weight if his team ever wanted to try him at offensive tackle. Luckily, there shouldn’t be any need for that – Washington has a shot to be the third first-round tight end taken this spring. He provides huge dual-threat utility in a league moving towards more 12-personnel and formation multiplicity.

Over Washington’s career at Georgia, he played 66.2% of his snaps inline – an extremely high percentage. Washington is a true “third offensive tackle” as a blocker. Edge players who lack power get rag-dolled by Washington. He has the frame, athleticism, length, power, tenacity, and mobility for almost any assignment. Not only that, but Washington will sprint downfield on long runs or completions to block downfield. He is a terrifying proposition for defensive backs in the third level. Most simply give up, folding to the ground or letting Washington push them whichever way he wants instead of standing their ground and hearing the Mortal Kombat guy yell, “Finish him!”

Washington’s 81.3 PFF run block grade last year was elite for a TE prospect, and Washington never graded below 72.4 in any season on campus. Several TE prospects in this class never earned a 72.4 run block grade during any collegiate season. In an era where boxes get thinned out, spreading the field with Washington inline could prove devastating. Washington will be his running back’s best friend in the NFL.

And his versatility doesn’t end there. Washington will immediately plug a spot on your special teams’ units. He had 145 special teams snaps on last year’s title-winning team. But, despite Washington’s athletic profile and despite his circus catch at the NFL Combine, he remains a thoroughly unrefined receiver. His routes are straightforward, and he doesn’t change directions on the field as his testing numbers would lead you to believe.

Beyond that, Washington had a 10.0% career drop rate in college, which is especially troubling for an intermediate safety blanket that doesn’t win downfield. He cut that number to an appropriate 6.7% in 2022 – if he can keep it in that range, he’ll be fine – but his drop rate was well over 10% heading into last season.

Washington caught only three career balls 20+ yards downfield over his entire career. He played with Brock Bowers – TE1 in next year’s class – and Arik Gilbert, both seam-stretchers… but that doesn’t really excuse Washington’s lack of utility in this area. Georgia would have let him do it if he was good at it. And for all Washington’s athletic gifts and power as a blocker, he’s shockingly easy to tackle. Over his entire career, he only forced 14 missed tackles, less than Kincaid or Iowa’s Sam LaPorta had last season alone.

Washington simply must become an ultra-reliable intermediate option during his chances. This is the crucial point of his eval. Because if Washington can’t win downfield, and if he isn’t going to gain many yards after the catch… he simply must cash in the opportunities he’s presented with over the middle of the field.

5. Tucker Kraft | South Dakota State | 6050/254 | RAS: 9.67

Player comparison: Dawson Knox

Injuries hampered Kraft’s 2022 season. He got hurt in the opener against Iowa and didn’t return until Week 8. He only played 84 more career snaps than Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave (albeit in one less active season on campus). But Kraft faces competition questions that Musgrave doesn’t. Not only is Kraft leaping up from the FCS, but we have precious little data on him against high-end competition. In his only full career game against an FBS opponent, Kraft was SDSU’s third-leading receiver by yardage in a 2021 victory over hapless Colorado State.

That’s why we were so excited to see how he’d do against Iowa’s nasty defense in the 2022 opener – but Kraft suffered a high-ankle sprain on the opening drive.

He’s a tremendous athlete. He did the full gamut of tests and was 73rd-percentile-or-higher in all of them – in a large frame. Kraft weighed into the NFL Combine at 254 pounds but could carry 260-plus at the next level.

Kraft moves well on the field. He’s a coiled spring off the snap. When he punches the gas, he can reach top speed quickly. He used his combination of strength and acceleration to earn separation in college. Sometimes to a comical degree – running free after dusting an inferior athlete. Things are going to get trickier in the NFL. Kraft was reportedly offered multiple six-figure NIL deals to transfer up to the FBS but declined them. I would have liked to see him on a Power 5 team next season – up a level; he would have been forced to work on the finer points of his… ahem… kraft.

He’s not a nuanced route-runner. He could be straightforward in that area in the FCS and win anyway because of his physical gifts – that’s not happening at the next level. Between his high-end acceleration and his strong agility, Kraft has the tools for the job. But that’s going to take some work. He also needs to refine his blocking technique. Kraft succeeded in this area in college through effort and physical ability. But he wasn’t punished for his wonky technique at the sub-division level, as will happen in the NFL.

Kraft wins the early advantage through his quickness off the snap and his initial speed-to-power pop when he gets his hands on you. But he doesn’t block under control, particularly when he’s asked to pick off a second-level defender, a lunger who tries to win with a knockout punch when the fight has only just begun. When he learns to keep his skis under him and realizes why it’s problematic not to have a steady base under him in this area, his natural ability will play up, and he’ll achieve consistency. But again, this is theoretical.

Lastly, Kraft’s 10.8% career drop rate will need to drop at the next level. He did cut that to 6.9% during last season’s half-campaign. But it was a trouble-area 9.7% during his breakout 2021 year over more usage.

6. Luke Musgrave | Oregon State | 6054/255 | RAS: 9.77

Player comparison: Cole Kmet

Musgrave is the nephew of former NFL QB Bill Musgrave. He was a multi-sport athlete in high school with eclectic tastes – lacrosse, track, and a ski racing champion in addition to football. He’s a primo north-south athlete in a long, rangy frame. Musgrave’s max speed of 20.05 mph at the Senior Bowl was the fastest any tight end in Mobile has ever been tracked in the five years they’ve been releasing that information. Musgrave backed that up by running a 93rd-percentile 4.61 forty with 96th-percentile-or-higher splits and 90th-percentile-or-higher jumps.

Musgrave wasn’t dominant at the Senior Bowl. But he had a strong week, and his athletic advantage over all the other tight ends was plain as day. In Mobile, we saw some of the downfield utility Musgrave sporadically flashed at Oregon State. He caught 7-of-13 targets 20+ yards downfield the past two campaigns with no drops. Musgrave is a pure dice roll on potential. Because right now, all we have on him is 13 collegiate starts and 47 collegiate catches over four seasons. Last season was supposed to be the breakout year. But Musgrave suffered a season-ending knee injury in the final minutes of the Sept. 11 game against Fresno State.

He was humming up to that point. Musgrave posted a 6-89-1 line in the opening-week upset over Boise State. He was Oregon State’s leading receiver again in the upset over Fresno State, posting a 5-80-0 line. Those high on Musgrave argue that if he’d never gotten hurt, he would have gone ballistic all season and been viewed as a consensus first-round prospect. They fail to mention that Musgrave’s first two games of 2022 – Musgrave caught 11-of-15 targets (8.3% drop rate) – were entirely out of line with the three years that came before them.

He left college with a career drop rate of 16.1%. That’s six percentage points above the “red flag” area. Musgrave is also not super reliable in contested situations, going a career 7-for-18 in them. This could be a problem at the next level because Musgrave’s average agility doesn’t buy him much separation in the intermediate area. His agility tests were his worst during the pre-draft process, with a 56th-percentile shuttle and 76th-percentile three-cone. His collegiate routes in that sector were typically straightforward one-note affairs with rounded breaks.

Musgrave needs to beat you with acceleration and speed along his route, catch radius, and body positioning when the ball is descending because he doesn’t create any with deception or shake. This also goes for when Musgrave has the ball in his hands. Neither a powerful runner nor an elusive one, Musgrave is a straight-line, upright mover. He gives you lots of surface area to hit and is target practice for hungry linebackers and safeties flying downhill. Per PFF, Musgrave broke only two tackles over his entire career.

Musgrave is a mediocre blocker. He understands his assignment and leverage, and those things, in conjunction with his frame, feet, and initial punch, helped him win skirmishes in the Pac-12. Musgrave mostly played inline for the Beavers, and his frame certainly makes him look at home there. But Musgrave doesn’t have the play strength or nasty attitude to trust against NFL edge defenders – he gets bullied by power. So it’ll be interesting to see if Musgrave’s NFL team uses him more out of the slot than he got used to in Eugene.

What you like about Musgrave is how you’ve seen him win downfield and how his frame, length, and athletic profile would seem to indicate that this aspect of his game will translate. He tracks the ball well downtown, keeps his hands in until the moment of truth to prevent the defender from getting a head-start, and has a really good feel for his surroundings. What we’ve seen of Musgrave’s body control navigating the end zone and sidelines are upper-echelon. He can pin a defender to his back and get his feet in while snatching the ball cleanly. This is the area of the game where you see some of that multi-sport athlete poking out.

I love that stuff – and it has big value at the next level. But there are simply too many questions in Musgrave’s eval for me to rank him any higher.

7. Zack Kuntz | Old Dominion | 6073/255 | RAS: 10

Player comparison: Mike Gesecki

We just got done discussing a pair of high-upside dice rolls. Kuntz is another. He’s a former celebrated four-star Penn State tight end who transferred to former PSU OC Ricky Rahne’s program at Old Dominion after getting stuck behind Pat Freiermuth on the depth chart out of high school.

At ODU, for one season at least, Kuntz was an unfair assignment for G5 defenders. He posted a 73-692-5 receiving line during his breakout 2021 campaign. But Kuntz returned to campus in 2022, and – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – suffered a knee injury in early October that ended his season early. ODU was frisky in 2022 when Kuntz was healthy. After Kuntz went down, the entire team went into the tank.

During the pre-draft process, Kuntz posted a perfect “10” RAS score – i.e., the most athletic size-adjusted athlete at the position ever to enter the NFL. Kuntz accomplished that despite not ducking a single test. Was it any surprise? This kid was a high school hurdles state champion despite his elephantine frame. He posted a stupid 4.55 forty at over 6’7 and 255 pounds. Both of his jumps and agility drills were similarly 95th-percentile-or-better. On the field, he’s a towering presence who can get down the seam in a hurry. He has an enormous catch radius, and I love his aggressiveness in attacking the ball in the air downfield.

Kuntz also has some nuance to him as a route-runner. He varies his tempo and footwork and cuts clean corners when snapping off a route. He accelerates quickly out of those cuts, becoming a flashing neon light to the quarterback at his size once the separation begins. Kuntz could be a matchup problem in the red zone in the NFL. His length is a problem in jump-ball scenarios, and he hangs onto the ball when taking a shot. He’s experienced in both the slot and inline, but Kuntz offers even more versatility than that. You can line him up outside – ODU was doing this more and more up until Kuntz got injured last season – and also in the backfield. And he will also factor into several of your special teams’ units – Kuntz played 287 special teams snaps between 2019 and his 2022 injury.

He was a solid blocker in the G5, but I doubt that part of his game translates to inline NFL work. Kuntz had a tsunami strategy with smaller defenders, getting on top of them quickly, popping them, and washing over them with length to finish the job, but his technique is shoddy. Like Kraft, he loads up for contact at the expense of his base, which makes him far easier to slough – and he lacks play strength. Kuntz is a high-cut athlete with very long legs. You wouldn’t expect him to have much anchor, and he doesn’t. These two issues in conjunction left Kuntz’s feet stuck in the mud after the contact point against power defenders, something we’ll see more often at the next level if he’s asked to block edge defenders. But Kuntz’s effort, athleticism, and frame should help him take care of nickel defenders.

The lack of power also shows up after the catch. Kuntz’s YAC yardage usually comes from running away from a defender he separated from prior to the catch. He is surprisingly easy to take down when you touch him. Kuntz only broke 10 tackles over his career on 88 catches. If you’re going to value Luke Musgrave, you simply must value Kuntz – the strengths and risks in each profile are very similar. Kuntz started only 15 games in college. Both of those prospects struggled to make an impact early (though Kuntz has the better excuse for that, stuck as a teenager behind veteran Pat Freiermuth).

Kuntz’s insane testing opened some eyes, but he’s still being underrated. I have to rank him behind Musgrave because Musgrave is a bit more fluid, with better body control, and Musgrave has superior downfield utility. But they’re far closer in reality than is commonly depicted.

Best of the Rest

8. Luke Schoonmaker | Michigan | 6050/249 | RAS: 9.85 | Comp: Dalton Schultz
9. Brenton Strange | Penn State | 6036/253 | RAS: 8.94 | Comp: Jonnu Smith
10. Davis Allen | Clemson | 6054/246 | RAS: 7.85 | Comp: Cole Turner
11. Josh Whyle | Cincinnati | 6064/260 | RAS: 8.89 | Comp: Coby Fleener
12. Payne Durham | Purdue | 6050/258 | RAS: 6.46 | Comp: Gavin Escobar

13. Cameron Latu | Alabama | 6042/248 | RAS: 6.27 | Comp: Kaden Smith
14. Brayden Willis | Oklahoma | 6036/239 | RAS: 4.61 | Comp: Josiah Deguara
15. Blake Whiteheart | Wake Forest | 6037/249 | RAS: 8 | Comp: Chris Herndon

Mock NFL Drafts

• Matthew Freedman’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0)
• Kent Weyrauch’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0)
• Matthew Jones’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0)
• Andrew Erickson’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
• Mike Fanelli’s Mock Drafts w/ Trades (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0)
• John Supowitz’s Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0)
• Russell Brown (1.0)

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