The weekly statcast review is back, and boy, do I have some interesting numbers to dive into. So far this year, we’ve seen things like a consistent velocity drop among pitchers, an uptick in steals, and more. Probably my favorite, though, are the guys showing up with some big-league power who you’d least expect, whether that be on the mound or at the plate.
When you think of power, most people think of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge…maybe Pete Alonso if you want to give the Polar Bear some love. There are some sneaky names climbing up the leaderboards this year, though. Shoutout Jorge Mateo and his 90th percentile max exit velocity. Also, shoutout Jordan Hicks who just hit 103.1 with his sinker tonight. Twice.
Before I get too deep into the weeds on players I’ve had my eye on, let’s just get right into it.
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Statcast Review: Matt Chapman, Mason Miller, Shane McClanahan (2023 Fantasy Baseball)
Matt Chapman (3B – TOR): The Master Of Barrels
Mr. Chapman has come into the 2023 season on a mission. That mission? Hit the absolute cover off the ball. This isn’t necessarily something new for Chapman. He’s always made pretty hard contact. This season is just…it’s different. The difference between this season and last season alone is worthy of recognition.
Let’s look at his 2022 numbers really quickly. At the end of the season, Chapman ranked ninth in hard-hit rate (51.2%), 27th in barrels (48), 14th in average exit velocity (92.2 mph), and 46th in barrels/PA% (7.7%). Good, but not great. All of this led to a .227 average, 27 home runs and 27 doubles. Now that he’s another year into his Toronto tenure, though, he’s taking it all to the next level.
Small sample size aside, Chapman’s numbers and standing on the leaderboard are noteworthy. As it sits currently, he’s not only on the leaderboards, he’s near the top in almost all of them. He leads the league in hard-hit rate (62.9%), barrels (20), barrels/PA% (20.6%) and is eighth in balls hit 95+ mph with 38. Leading to a healthy .364 batting average, five home runs and a second-best in the league 11 doubles.
This is the version of Matt Chapman that everyone wanted to see in 2022. Once he moved to Toronto, we all dreamed of gold glove defense and a multitude of consistent dingers. Instead, we got…I mean, we got some dingers, but it was very inconsistent and came at the expense of his batting average. Now that he’s putting it all together, Chapman could very well go down as the best third baseman in fantasy baseball in 2023.
Mason Miller (SP – OAK): The Mysterious Flamethrower
For whatever reason, the Oakland Athletics decided they were doing things their way and called up a pitcher with just 28 career minor-league innings. While he didn’t necessarily end up lighting the world on fire, he didn’t really disappoint, either. Especially considering he had just come off a five-inning 11 strikeout game where he allowed no hits. In a season where it was pretty apparent the Athletics were going to suck, they tried capitalizing on what little hype they could find.
Now for the good. Miller’s fastball topped out at 102.5 mph in his first start. Pretty damn good, as that’s a number, not many starters are able to hit. Now, through two starts, his fastball is averaging an excellent 99 mph. It currently also sits with a .217 batting average against and just a .212 xBA. His slider has been equally as good. Averaging 86.6 mph, it has an xBA of just .200. It also has a whiff rate of 33.3% which is a number I like to see out of a secondary pitch like a slider.
And now the bad. Despite throwing the ball so hard, hitters can hardly even see it; they’re still managing much more contact than you’d expect. The whiff rate on his fastball is just 20%, and he has just a 22.9% whiff rate overall. That’s good for just the 33rd percentile. None of this is overtly good for a guy throwing his fastball 63% of the time. He has done well limiting walks, giving up just two in his first 8.1 innings, but with the low whiff rate and an average exit velocity against in just the third percentile, Miller is going to need to start missing bats in a hurry.
Shane McClanahan (SP – TB): The Art Of The Whiff
Speaking of missing bats and whiff rates, Rays starter Shane McClanahan had a Saturday for the ages on the 22nd. He induced 49 swings and managed an incredible 32 whiffs. Good for a 65% whiff rate. The even more impressive part is that it wasn’t just one pitch that was dominant. It was all of them.
He was very changeup dominant in this start, which is not the norm for him. He normally uses it about 24% of the time. This time around, it was his most used pitch at 31%. In turn, he managed 14 whiffs on 16 swings. A whopping 88%. He threw his curveball 24% of the time and managed seven whiffs on eight swings, which is, you guessed it, another 88% whiff rate.
When I pinpoint whiff rates on specific pitches, I love seeing guys with pitches that sit above a 30% whiff rate. That’s usually the mark of a pretty damn good pitch. Which is why the fact that his fastball having “just” a 36% whiff rate on 14 swings is also something that shouldn’t be ignored. And for the sake of making sure you realize just how good every pitch was, the only other pitch he threw was a slider. His slider registered six whiffs on 11 swings. The normally hard-to-hit pitcher took his game to an entirely new level that day. Expect more of that dominance all year.
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