Seahawks Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Dynasty Rookie Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

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Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Seahawks Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp

Player comparison: Jarvis Landry

Bio
In 2021, playing the slot inside Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, Smith-Njigba had one of the most dominant singular seasons of any receiver of the past decade, setting a Big Ten record with 1,606 receiving yards. He saved the best for last, going thermonuclear in the Rose Bowl with 15 catches for 347 yards and three touchdowns.

Smith-Njigba entered 2022 as the consensus WR1 in the 2023 class. But Smith-Njigba suffered a hamstring injury early in the opener against Notre Dame that ended up wreaking havoc on his season. He missed the rest of that game, and then the following week.

Expected to miss Week 3 against Toledo, Ohio State oddly started him. Which seemingly was an indication that Smith-Njigba had returned to 100%. Not the case. After two catches for 33 yards, JSN re-aggravated the injury and was yanked.

We didn’t see him again for a month. Smith-Njigba returned on Oct. 22 against Iowa, playing 22 snaps. I was watching live. Smith-Njigba didn’t look right. He shouldn’t have been out there. Smith-Njigba had just one catch for seven yards for an ugly PFF game grade of 47.6. It was the last time we saw JSN in 2022. He finished the season with five catches for 43 yards on 42 routes.

Fans questioned whether Smith-Njigba was milking his recovery. Maybe he already had his eye on the NFL. ESPN analyst Todd McShay gave credence to that theory when he reported that NFL scouts believed Smith-Njigba was healthy and sitting out to protect his draft stock.

“I’ve got news for every prospect out there,” McShay said on an ESPN telecast. “NFL teams know. They know what you had for lunch last Thursday. They’re going to know whether you’re healthy or not. And if you’re healthy enough to play, you need to be out there with your teammates playing.”

Smith-Njigba’s brother, Pirates minor leaguer Canaan Smith-Njigba, responded to McShay on Twitter: “If he was healthy he would be playing.. like what?? We not protecting our ‘Draft stock’ they know who JSN is when healthy. You sorry [McShay] and so wrong to be on tv making these false claims.”

The debate raged on… Was JSN healthy? Mostly healthy? Injured? Was he rehabbing in good faith? No matter the case, whereas JSN entered the 2023 season as a clean, straightforward prospect, his lost campaign had introduced an undeniable element of mystery and doubt into his evaluation.

Smith-Njigba’s 2021 campaign was the best singular season of any receiver in the 2023 class. And his 3-cone and short shuttle times each blew away the field at this year’s NFL Combine — regardless of position. But he’s coming off an injury-riddled dud of a season, he has mediocre speed and burst, and he’s likely a slot receiver in the NFL, as he was at Ohio State.

So we’ll start here: Do you see the glass half full, or half empty?

Strengths
Slot maestro. So dang shifty. Joystick mover. His routes are a combination of jazz music and workout rap. The jazz comes in his understanding of his assignment.

Against man coverage, JSN sets nickels up to fail — by seeing the game from their perspective. He holds his cards close to the vest until the bitter end — his tells are false-flag decoys, and he is not to be trusted. The rap comes in the violence of his change of direction.

Up until that moment, JSN has gone to the trouble of covering his tracks. It’s so very difficult to know exactly when he’ll snap that break off, which direction he’ll go once he does, and the precision of the angle he’ll intersect. You can understand nickels being resentful of being stuck in man assignments against this guy.

With the ball in his hands, it’s the same sort of ethos. JSN is very difficult to square up because of his side-to-side movement, and he has great vision. His agility and vision get him into space more often than you associate players with his relatively meager speed and burst.

Quarterbacks love JSN. He’s not the most explosive receiver for reasons we’ll discuss below, but he’s an efficiency monster. He tosses the throwing window wide open in rhythm with the quarterback’s drop-back off those violent route breaks in the intermediate area, providing an easy look and uncontested completion.

Against zone coverage, JSN’s joystick agility isn’t needed quite as much — this is where you see his advanced understanding of the game. JSN deciphers coverage concepts quickly. He has an intuitive understanding of where defenders must be situated within that look, and by extension where he must go to make himself available to the quarterback.

JSN has natural ball skills. Strong hands. Picks it clean. Very fluid. Reels it in clean on the move and it’s like he’s on a treadmill, with no speed lost. His consistency in this area is upper-tier in this class, with a superb 5.2% career drop rate.

JSN will be one of the NFL’s best slot receivers in very short order. He will particularly create havoc on a team that has a true WR1 on the boundary that forces safeties back. At Ohio State, JSN played between Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He enjoyed a bunch of intermediate space, and he feasted on it. The more intermediate space you give JSN, the more he’ll eat. It is that simple.

Weaknesses
Mediocre speed and acceleration. JSN’s route running and joystick agility got him into wide-open space many times in college. But, so often, we saw him get tracked down from behind. Not just by corners — college safeties and linebackers got him too. JSN isn’t running away from anyone in the NFL.

JSN elected not to run the forty at the NFL Combine, creating a lot of interest in Ohio State’s Pro Day on March 23. JSN ran a solid reported 4.48 forty, which ranked in the 79th percentile (note: Some scouts reportedly clocked JSN in the low-4.5s).

Questions about Smith-Njigba’s lack of twitch were confirmed with a 20th-percentile 1.65 10-yard split.

Smith-Njigba is a pure slot. I’m listing this as a weakness, because it means both that he isn’t versatile, and also that he won’t be a fit for all 32 teams. But I want to implore you not to overthink that for the reasons stated above.

I should also probably mention that JSN only went off during that one season in college — and that he was in ideal circumstances during that thermonuclear 2021 campaign. It’s just that JSN’s strengths and weaknesses are both very clearly delineated. His game will play at the next level.

I want to return to the last paragraph in strengths: “JSN will be one of the NFL’s best slot receivers in very short order. He will particularly create havoc on a team that has a true WR1 on the boundary that forces safeties back. At Ohio State, JSN played between Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He enjoyed a bunch of intermediate space, and he feasted on it. The more intermediate space you give JSN, the more he’ll eat. It is that simple.”

I’ve come full circle on JSN. I loved him in 2021. I had a brief falling out in 2022. I think I see him with clear eyes now. Forget the boundary/slot value debate. He’s a slot. He’s a fabulous receiver. He’s super unique. He could be a top-20 overall NFL receiver someday soon. But even so, he’ll be at his best when he isn’t the WR1 on his own team. I believe he needs to play beside a WR1 who draws deep attention to open up the intermediate space JSN feasts on. I believe JSN is a Scottie Pippen-type. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Let’s be honest: The landing spot could have been better for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In his rookie year, he’s going to have to share targets with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And while Geno Smith showed last year that he’s a competent starter, he’s probably not good enough to make three different receivers every-week fantasy starters.

Reservations about the landing spot aside, the long-term outlook for JSN is still pretty rosy. Smith-Njigba was phenomenal in his sophomore season at Ohio State in 2021, catching 95 passes for 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns while sharing targets with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. JSN’s junior year was largely a washout due to a hamstring injury, but dynasty managers didn’t forget that stunning 2021 campaign. Smith-Njigba’s smooth route running and video-game shiftiness should help him become a productive NFL slot receiver … eventually. But again, the target logjam in Seattle is going to be an issue.

In dynasty rookie drafts, Smith-Njigba figures to be a top-4 pick in 1QB leagues and a top-7 pick in superflex drafts. It’s possible he’ll go a few spots later than he would have gone had JSN’s landing spot been better. Smith-Njigba is still a worthy dynasty investment, but his rookie-year production might be modest.