Round 1 NFL Draft Picks: Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. Pat Fitzmaurice shares his dynasty rookie draft outlook for all of the fantasy skill position players selected in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft.

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Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here’s what Fitz expects for each of the Round 1 skill position players selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Panthers Draft Bryce Young

Dynasty managers have been debating which of the top quarterbacks in this draft class deserves to come of the board first in rookie drafts, and the case for Bryce Young has strengthened now that the Carolina Panthers have selected him with the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.

Young is a high-floor prospect whose ability to read defenses and quickly process information should flatten his learning curve and help him reach his full potential in a hurry. A true field general who operates like a point guard, Young has remarkable vision and a quick-trigger release. He’s comfortable operating in the pocket but is also very good at eluding pass rushers and making plays out of structure. Young isn’t going to be among the league leaders in QB rushing yardage, but he’ll add at least a little bit of value with his legs, and his mobility will help him elude pass rushers and buy time for his receivers to get open.

The big concern with Young is his size. At the NFL Scouting Combine, he measured 5-10, 204 pounds, but it’s possible he’ll play at less than 200 pounds. Durability could be an issue for a quarterback that small, although Young only missed one game in his final two seasons at Alabama. Young doesn’t have a rocket for an arm, but by no means is his arm strength a problem. It’s also worth noting that Young doesn’t have a top-flight group of wide receivers, with Terrace Marshall, D.J. Chark and a dusty Adam Thielen.

For dynasty leagues, Young has the potential to develop into a QB1, and it shouldn’t take him long to maximize his potential. He should be one of the first three or four players off the board in superflex rookie drafts. Some dynasty managers might prefer Anthony Richardson for his rushing potential or C.J. Stroud for his more prototypical size, but Young is probably the safest of the rookie quarterbacks.

In redraft leagues, Young should be considered a low-end QB2 for 2023. He’s likely to start right away and won’t be given a quick hook if he comes out of the gate slowly. The Panthers don’t exactly have an abundance of pass catching firepower on their roster, which it would be overly optimistic to project Young for more than about 3,800 passing yards and 25 TD passes even if he starts all 17 games. And as noted earlier, Young doesn’t figure to be a prolific runner.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Bryce Young to the Panthers

Texans Draft C.J. Stroud

FantasyPros college football and NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom calls Stroud “the new-age prototype of a pocket-passer.” The 6-3, 214-pound Stroud is a mechanically consistent and uncommonly accurate passer who can fit throws into tight windows and hit the bull’s-eye on deeper passes. He throws easily catchable passes, maximizing his receivers’ ability to make yardage after the catch. Stroud isn’t going to add much fantasy value as a runner, but he’s not a complete statue either. He has enough functional mobility to avoid pass rushers and occasionally run for a first down when a play breaks down. But Stroud is first and foremost a pocket passer.

A two-time Heisman Trophy finalist, Stroud completed 69.3% of his passes at Ohio State and averaged 9.8 yards per pass attempt, with 85 TD passes and 12 interceptions in 26 games. Granted, Stroud was blessed with an embarrassment of pass-catching riches at Ohio State, including WRs Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr.

There was a great deal of predraft speculation that Stroud’s stock was falling, possibly due to a reportedly low score on the S2 cognitive test, which is designed to measure an athlete’s capacity for information processing and quick decision-making. Earlier in the draft process, Stroud was the betting favorite to be taken No. 1 overall.

In dynasty leagues, Stroud figures to be a top-4 pick in superflex formats. His supporting cast with the Texans won’t be very exciting early on, with Nico Collins his top veteran wide receiver, so don’t expect strong numbers in Year 1. But Stroud’s long-term outlook is bright. He’s a good bet to start right away, and for redraft purposes he should be considered a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for C.J. Stroud to the Texans

Colts Draft Anthony Richardson

An extraordinary physical specimen, Richardson put on a show at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds at 244 pounds, breaking the QB combine records in the vertical and broad jumps, and posting a perfect 10.0 relative athletic score. Not only does Richardson have blazing speed, but he also has a powerful right arm capable of making every thrown an NFL offensive coordinator would ever ask him to make.

The big concern with Richardson is accuracy. He completed only 53.8% of his passes in his one season as a starter at the University of Florida. Too often, he’ll fire a fastball in a situation where a touch throw would make more sense. Richardson also lacks experience, with only 13 college starts and fewer than 400 college pass attempts under his belt. He’s going to need a lot of development.

But Richardson landed in a good spot with the Colts. Shane Steichen is a QB-friendly head coach, the Colts have a solid offensive line, and RB Jonathan Taylor will keep defenses honest.

Richardson is a swing-for-the-fences pick in fantasy leagues. In dynasty superflex leagues, he’ll be a top-4 pick in most rookie drafts, and while he wasn’t the first quarterback to be selected in the NFL Draft, he’ll be the first QB off the board in a lot of dynasty leagues. Richardson’s rushing potential alone gives him a chance to develop into a top-10 overall fantasy quarterback. If he reaches his potential as a passer, too, he could have the sort of fantasy value that Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have. But Richardson doesn’t figure to have much rookie-year value, so he’s no more than a midrange QB3 in redraft leagues and probably isn’t draft-worth in the vast majority of them.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Anthony Richardson to the Colts

Falcons Draft Bijan Robinson

Arguably the best RB prospect to enter the NFL since Saquon Barkley was drafted No. 2 overall in 2018, Robinson figures to immediately step into a workhorse role for the Falcons and contribute on all three downs. Tyler Allgeier … sorry, buddy. The Atlanta RB committee is no more. All hail King Bijan. The Falcons didn’t spend a top-10 pick on Robinson just to rotate him with one or more other running backs.

Robinson has everything you’d want in a lead running back: speed, power, elusiveness, vision, pass-catching ability … you name it. The 5-11, 215-pound Robinson is big enough to manage a heavy workload, yet he has the agility of a 190-pound scatback. Since PFF began charting college running backs in 2014, only Javonte Williams has matched Robinson’s 39% missed tackle rate. In his final season at Texas, Robinson forced 104 missed tackles — the most PFF has charted in a single collegiate season.

The surface stats reflect Robinson’s dominance during his final year in Austin: 1,894 scrimmage yards (157.8 per game) and 20 touchdowns, with an average of 6.3 yards per carry. Robinson didn’t disappoint at the NFL Scouting Combine either, with a 4.46-second 40 time and solid showings in the vertical and broad jumps.

A prospect as beloved as Robinson isn’t going to be easy to acquire in fantasy leagues. Expect Robinson to have a first-round ADP in redraft leagues, where managers will be enthralled by his intoxicating skill set and the prospect of heavy-duty usage. In dynasty leagues, Robinson is the consensus 1.01. in both 1QB and superflex formats, and it would take a hefty trade package to wrestle the 1.01 pick away from whichever manager in your league holds it.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Bijan Robinson to the Falcons

Lions Draft Jahmyr Gibbs

Should we be excited about Gibbs’ fantasy outlook after the Lions selected him with pick No. 12, which was much earlier than he was expected to go in the draft? Or should we be concerned that Gibbs is joining a Lions backfield that also includes D’Andre Swift, who has a vaguely similar skill set?

Gibbs is an exciting RB prospect whose talents would seem to be a perfect fit for the modern-day NFL. At the NFL Scouting Combine, Gibbs clocked a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash, and that blazing speed shows up on his college tape. But Gibbs isn’t merely about straight-line speed. His agility and his sharp cuts are going to give NFL defenders nightmares.

What has fantasy managers most enthusiastic about Gibbs is his pass-catching ability, which should translate into immediate fantasy value. In addition to his 926 rushing yards and 7 TD runs for Alabama last season, Gibbs had 44-444-3 receiving. In his three seasons with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs caught 104 passes and had only two drops. Gibbs has frequently been compared to Alvin Kamara, whose speed, agility and pass catching made him an impact fantasy performer upon his NFL arrival. Gibbs might not have Kamara’s rare contact balance, but the comparisons are otherwise fair.

Gibbs will be a coveted asset in dynasty leagues, even though he’s going to share work with Swift. Based on the Lions’ reluctance to give Swift a substantial role last season, it’s a good bet that Gibbs will have a majority (or at least a plurality) of Detroit’s RB touches in 2023. In 1QB dynasty formats, Gibbs figures to be a top-4 rookie pick, with Bijan Robinson the only player certain to be taken earlier. In superflex leagues, Gibbs is likely to be a mid-first-round pick, going somewhere from 1.04 to 1.08 in most drafts.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Jahmyr Gibbs to the Lions

Seahawks Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Let’s be honest: The landing spot could have been better for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In his rookie year, he’s going to have to share targets with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And while Geno Smith showed last year that he’s a competent starter, he’s probably not good enough to make three different receivers every-week fantasy starters.

Reservations about the landing spot aside, the long-term outlook for JSN is still pretty rosy. Smith-Njigba was phenomenal in his sophomore season at Ohio State in 2021, catching 95 passes for 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns while sharing targets with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. JSN’s junior year was largely a washout due to a hamstring injury, but dynasty managers didn’t forget that stunning 2021 campaign. Smith-Njigba’s smooth route running and video-game shiftiness should help him become a productive NFL slot receiver … eventually. But again, the target logjam in Seattle is going to be an issue.

In dynasty rookie drafts, Smith-Njigba figures to be a top-4 pick in 1QB leagues and a top-7 pick in superflex drafts. It’s possible he’ll go a few spots later than he would have gone had JSN’s landing spot been better. Smith-Njigba is still a worthy dynasty investment, but his rookie-year production might be modest.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the Seahawks

Chargers Draft Quentin Johnston

With Johnston landing on the Chargers, he’ll be paired with Justin Herbert, one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Johnston goes to a team that already has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Allen is getting older, and Williams might not be with the Chargers for more than another year, but those two veterans will impede Johnston’s path to fantasy value in 2023.

There’s still a lot to like about Johnston. In a WR class loaded with Smurfs, Johnston is a 6-3, 208-pound X-receiver with a big catch radius and extraordinary leaping ability. Poor catching technique led to issues with drops at TCU, but Johnston has the sort of size and speed that dynasty managers covet in wide receivers.

Johnston is likely to be a mid-first-round pick in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts. In superflex dynasty leagues, he’ll likely go in the 1.08-1.11 range. If he can fix his problems with drops, Johnston has the potential to be a star. Just don’t expect a lot of year 1 production with Allen and Williams ahead of him in the pecking order for targets.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Quentin Johnston to the Chargers

Ravens Draft Zay Flowers

The Ravens needed help at wide receiver, and Zay Flowers should add needed juice to the Baltimore passing game.

Flowers’ 4.42 speed gives Ravens QB Lamar Jackson the sort of field stretcher he’s been lacking since Marquise Brown was traded to Arizona. But Flowers isn’t just about speed; he has extraordinary ball skills that belie his 5-9, 182-pound frame, Flowers had 78-1,077-12 for Boston College last year despite a lousy supporting cast. With his competitiveness, route-running skills and explosiveness after the catch, Flowers has the potential to become a productive fantasy starter.

Before the NFL Draft, I had Flowers as my WR3 in this rookie class behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. I now have him WR2, behind JSN but ahead of Johnston. Flowers should go in the 1.04-1.07 range in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and 1.07-1.10 in superflex rookie drafts.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Zay Flowers to the Ravens

Vikings Draft Jordan Addison

With Adam Thielen gone, the Vikings needed to find a receiver to complement star Justin Jefferson, and they found one in route-running prodigy Jordan Addison.

As a sophomore at the University of Pittsburgh, Addison turned in a 100-catch, 17-TD season before transferring to USC for his third and final college season, Addison has the makings of a high-quality NFL slot receiver. He’s only 5-11 and 173 pounds, and his athleticism is ordinary at best. He posted a Relative Athletic Score of 5.93 on a 10-point scale. But while Addison’s athletic traits might not quicken pulses, his slithery route-running will. Addison simply knows how to get open, and he should offer a sturdy fantasy floor for years to come.

Addison should be a mid-first-round pick in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and a late-first-round pick in superflex drafts. The presence of Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson limits Addison’s short-term upside, but his talents as a route-runner should keep him fantasy-viable.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Jordan Addison to the Vikings

Bills Draft Dalton Kincaid

The Bills weren’t thought to be in the TE market in this year’s draft — at least not in the first round — but they made an aggressive move to trade up two spots (leapfrogging the TE-hungry Cowboys in the process) and draft Dalton Kincaid, who’s widely considered to be the best pass-catching tight end in the Class of 2023.

The 6-4, 246-pound runner is an outstanding route runner with sure hands, good speed and exceptional ball skills. Kincaid’s high school basketball background is evident in his fluid movements. He’s also extremely difficult to deal with after the catch — Kincaid forced 16 missed tackles last season, second-most among this year’s TE prospects.

While Kincaid is a terrific pass catcher, he isn’t much of a blocker. He is a true “move” tight end and isn’t going to succeed if he’s asked to play in-line and try to block NFL edge defenders. Since he’s relatively one-dimensional and not a true two-way tight end like Notre Dame’s Mike Mayer, it’s possible that Kincaid won’t be a full-time player and will be used situationally. Even if he’s used in a way intended to leverage his pass-catching skills, part-time duty would lower Kincaid’s fantasy ceiling.

In 1QB dynasty leagues, Kincaid is worth a late-first-round pick in rookie drafts. In superflex dynasty leagues, he should come off the board early in the second round. Kincaid’s execeptional pass-catching talents could make him immediately roster-worthy in redraft leagues, though the historical performance of rookie tight ends suggests that Kincaid should be considered a low-end TE2.

Check out the full NFL Draft profile for Dalton Kincaid to the Bills