The years of rookies taking time to marinate on NFL depth charts before exploding with high-level production are in the past. Rookies can be some of the best values in best ball drafts with season-defining upside if everything falls in line. With all that said, every year, rookie landmines can sink even the best-laid best ball plans.
NFL Draft cycle buzz, athletic testing hype, and helmet scouting can easily lead to best ball beer-goggle drafting. Don’t endure the walk of shame in 2023, and avoid these rookies in best ball drafts.
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
Best Ball League Rookies to Avoid
Hendon Hooker (QB – Tennessee)
Hendon Hooker’s age (25 years old) will already make him an outlier if he hits as a long-term answer for a franchise and in fantasy football. Hooker’s injury recovery from a torn ACL also tosses this season in doubt. It’s possible that Hooker doesn’t play a down this year in the NFL. These two facts could easily wipe him off many best ball draft boards, but we also have to factor in his wide range of NFL draft capital outcomes. Hooker has been rumored to be selected as high as the second round of the NFL Draft, but he could also easily slip to Day 3. All of this adds up to the conclusion that I won’t be drafting him this year in best ball until his draft capital and landing spot become clear.
Chase Brown (RB – Illinois)
Chase Brown held up his end of the bargain, as he crushed the athletic testing. The issue for Brown isn’t raw athletic measurables. The struggle for Brown has been converting that speed and explosiveness into on-field production.
| Year | Yards after contact per attempt rank | Breakaway run rate rank | PFF elusive rating rank |
| 2022 | 108th | 95th | 87th |
| 2021 | 12th | 45th | 14th |
| 2020 | 42nd | 35th | 60th |
*minimum 100 carries per PFF*
Brown has ranked outside the top 40 FBS running backs in Yards after contact per attempt, breakaway run rate, and PFF’s elusive rating in two of his last three seasons. Add in that he’s failed to surpass an 8% target share in any collegiate season, and we’re left with an early-down speed back that’s failed to live up to his underwear-testing hype. Brown looks like a Day 3 draft pick that’s not worth worrying about in best ball drafts.
Deuce Vaughn (RB – Kansas State)
The biggest knock on Vaughn is his size (5-foot-5, 179 pounds) and how that will cap his NFL workload. Since 2000, no running back that has weighed in under 180 has logged more than 64 touches in an NFL season. Even if we increase it to 185 pounds, Warrick Dunn is the only back to have surpassed 150 touches in any season since 2000. Even if you believe Vaughn’s receiving ability will allow him to carve out a substantial role in the NFL, the chances of it coming to fruition are slim. This is an outlier bet I’m not willing to make.
Kayshon Boutte (WR – LSU)
Kayshon Boutte’s 98th-percentile breakout age can’t save his tanking draft stock. Outside of a dominant stretch run in 2020 with Terrace Marshall on the shelf, Boutte has done little to nothing in college. His athletic testing was a joke. He should have listened if his agent was screaming in his ear to forgo testing.
Boutte is likely a Day 3 pick based only on his 2020 output and his alma mater being LSU, but I won’t be drafting him. Boutte couldn’t muster a 20% target share in any collegiate season, and his fall from grace could put him out of the NFL before his rookie contract expires. No thank you.
Darnell Washington (TE – Georgia)
Yes, Washington is a size/speed mutant. I have no qualms with Washington’s rare athleticism. My problem is that I think his skill set will lead to a more productive NFL career than a fantasy football career. Washington is a mauling blocker who ranked seventh and sixth in PFF run- and pass-blocking grades last year (minimum 100 blocking snaps). While his blocking is an amazing asset for any prospective NFL team, his inability to surpass a 9% target share in any season at Georgia is a problem. Washington profiles as an in-line tight end that will need plus-production in the touchdown department to pay off in fantasy because he isn’t likely to develop into a high-end target share earner at the next level.
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