Ravens Draft Zay Flowers: Dynasty Rookie Outlook (2023 Fantasy Football)

The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Zay Flowers.

Dynasty Trade Value Chart
Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Derek Brown’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers
Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Trade Strategy & Advice

Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Ravens Draft Zay Flowers

Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Zay Flowers.

Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp

Player comparison: T.Y. Hilton

Bio
Xavien “Zay” Flowers is known to be one of the feistiest, hardest-to-tackle players in this class. Did he have a choice in the matter? He was the fourth youngest of 14 children.

“Every day, we fought to be better at everything,” Flowers told The Undefeated. “When I was four, I would be in the front yard with full football pads on playing with my brothers. We would try to run each other over and juke each other out all the time.”

When Flowers was five, his mother died from a head injury. Flowers’ father, a truck driver for a medical device company, took over sole responsibility for caring for the 14 children. This is where little Zay Flowers learned his work ethic.

“On the weekends, which were his days off, he was still taking us to football games, getting up early to make us breakfast, washing clothes at the laundromat at 3 in the morning, and grocery shopping for all 14 of us. He taught me what hard work is,” Flowers said.

Flowers grew up in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. He showed skill in high school. But he was doubted because of his size, garnering only a three-star billing by recruiting services. Flowers signed with Boston College in the 2019 class.

Flowers didn’t have many offers from bluebloods, so, yes, in many ways he slipped through the cracks. But the lower-level P5 and entire G5 found him. Flowers received 27 FBS scholarship offers, including Nebraska, UNC, South Carolina, Kansas State, NC State, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, and Purdue.

Flowers wore No. 4 as a homage to being the fourth-youngest child in his family. In 2020, as a sophomore, Flowers earned First-Team All-ACC honors. The next year, starting QB Phil Jurkovec got hurt, biting into Flowers’ production — but Flowers still earned Third-Team All-Conference.

The NIL offers poured in the next spring — Flowers’ experience with college football free agency. Flowers told ESPN that, in the days leading up to the May 1 portal deadline last year, he received multiple six-figure NIL offers to transfer out of Boston College. The largest cited offer was $600,000.

Zay Flowers was on the spot. Put yourself in his shoes. Do you stay loyal to your commitment? Or do you take the money? You could use it to help your family — 13 siblings, and, now, nearly 20 nieces and nephews. All these thoughts were swirling through Flowers’ head when he called his father, Willie Flowers. Willie recalls that Zay was excited when that call began. “I told him, like Bill Parcells said, ‘Don’t chase the cheese, it’s rat poison,'” Willie Flowers said.

That seemed to settle it. Rumors of Jordan Addison leaving Pitt and Zay Flowers leaving Boston College began at about the same time. Whereas Addison left for USC, the Flowers rumors were extinguished as quickly as they began — he announced he was staying at BC. “[I]t’s my word and [my father’s] word, and commitment is very important,” Zay said.

It was a noble thing to do. Something most wouldn’t have done. But unfortunately, Boston College’s situation went from bad to worse in 2022. Particularly on the offensive side of the ball. A rash of injuries hit the offensive line, and Jurkovec got hurt again. But Flowers, a marked man week in and week out, went berzerk again anyway. He posted a 78-1,077-12 receiving line to earn First-Team All-ACC and Third-Team AP All-American honors. Flowers was also named a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award. Flowers left school as Boston College’s career leader in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

Strengths
Kinetic, lightning-in-a-bottle movement. That goes for when he has the ball in his hands. It also goes for when he’s hunting on his route path. Due to Flowers’ size, some peg him as a slot-only at the next level. I do not.

Flowers played 65.9% of his snaps at Boston College on the outside. He absolutely has the game to be a boundary receiver in the NFL. He has two skills you don’t typically associate with smaller receivers. Flowers is an awesome field stretcher, and he’s extremely difficult to jam off the line despite his size because of his lightning-quick feet.

Press-man corners are playing with fire against Flowers. If you whiff, you’ve put yourself in a hole that you aren’t going to be able to dig yourself out of. Flowers is a problem in space, all things equal. If you’re at a disadvantage, your fate’s already been sealed.

Some comp Flowers to Kadarius Toney. This comp only works in terms of running with the ball.

In all other areas, it’s a disservice to Flowers. Over Toney’s last three years on campus, 1,045 of his yards came on throws within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage (73.1%), while 386 came on throws 20+ yards downfield (26.9%). Over those three seasons, Toney made four contested catches.

Flowers had 500 yards on throws 20+ yards downfield last year alone. Over the last three seasons, 1,430 of Flowers’ yards came on throws within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage (52.7%), while 1,285 came on receptions occurring 20+ yards downfield (47.3%). Flowers made 16 contested catches over those three years.

Flowers can run routes and win at all three levels. He’s a fabulous ball tracker downfield — atypically so for a player his size. He adjusts to balls well downfield, gets himself in the best position to make the play, and attacks the ball in the air.

Flowers was a truly unfair assignment for ACC cornerbacks one-on-one. The humiliation only began when he burned you. Once Flowers had the ball in his hands, the problems truly began. Last season, he finished top 20 in this class with 15 missed tackles forced.

His movement and body control — also a staple of his ball skills — are a riddle in space. Flowers has the vision of a high-end running back in this area, weaving through traffic as though looking down on the field from above.

Flowers shined despite being in a horrible college situation. Last season was particularly bad. Down the stretch, Boston College was only starting one offensive lineman who remained in the same position he broke camp in. Due to a rash of injuries, converted defensive linemen and a walk-on were starting on the line.

QB1 Phil Jurkovec’s last two seasons were wrecked by injuries. In 2021, noodle-armed QB2 Dennis Grosel attempted nearly 100 more passes than Jurkovec. In 2022, new QB2 Emmett Morehead attempted 55 fewer passes than Jurkovec.

Defenses were not concerned about B.C.’s quarterback play, they had no issues blowing up B.C.’s makeshift offensive line, and B.C. had no running game to disincentivize defenses from doubling Flowers. Last year, B.C.’s leading rusher finished with 403 yards on 3.1 YPC.

Some question whether Flowers is a first-round talent. I don’t think there would be any questions about that had he played at a school like Alabama or Tennessee.

Weaknesses
The tape measurement stuff. Flowers lacks size, length, and play strength.

Trying to tackle Flowers is like trying to catch a chicken in the coup — but once you get your hands on him, it’s night-night. Standard durability concerns always apply to players this size.

Flowers gives effort as a blocker, and he was actually solidly above average in this phase the past two seasons in terms of his PFF grading. His NFL projection in this area is a different story. Flowers’ effort will win him a certain percentage of fights — he’s not going to have the muscle and length for the others.

Speaking of Flowers’ lack of length, he was able to overcome it to win downfield with ball tracking, body control, and a my-ball attitude. He had 24 career drops for an 11% career drop rate. That’s not as big a deal contextually within his college situation. But in the NFL, against bigger, better athletes, when his margin for error shrinks, can he win in the same kinds of ways?

2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Zay Flowers

The Ravens needed help at wide receiver, and Zay Flowers should add needed juice to the Baltimore passing game.

Flowers’ 4.42 speed gives Ravens QB Lamar Jackson the sort of field stretcher he’s been lacking since Marquise Brown was traded to Arizona. But Flowers isn’t just about speed; he has extraordinary ball skills that belie his 5-9, 182-pound frame, Flowers had 78-1,077-12 for Boston College last year despite a lousy supporting cast. With his competitiveness, route-running skills and explosiveness after the catch, Flowers has the potential to become a productive fantasy starter.

Before the NFL Draft, I had Flowers as my WR3 in this rookie class behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. I now have him WR2, behind JSN but ahead of Johnston. Flowers should go in the 1.04-1.07 range in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and 1.07-1.10 in superflex rookie drafts.