The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Michael Mayer.
Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Raiders Draft Michael Mayer
Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Michael Mayer.
Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp
Player comparison: Jason Witten
Bio
Dalton Kincaid seemingly came out of nowhere to enter the TE1 conversation this past fall. Michael Mayer’s story is the opposite. A case of enormous expectations fully realized. But their stories have one big similarity: Like Kincaid, Mayer’s first love wasn’t football – basketball. In fact, Mayer had no interest in playing high school football until the school’s head football coach called him.
“I loved basketball,” Mayer told ND Insider. “I wanted to play basketball in college, so I decided I wasn’t going to play football in high school.”
The coach had a very simple pitch. Play football as a freshman; if you don’t like it, feel free to quit. Mayer tried out. Turned out he liked football. In short order, Mayer was a dominant two-way star.
Mayer didn’t stray far from Covington Catholic when he signed with the Irish as a 247 Composite five-star recruit. As a senior, Mayer was Kentucky’s Mr. Football on a team that went 15-0. Mayer was attracted to Notre Dame’s lineage of tight ends.
Here’s the most incredible stat you’ll read in this column. Since 2004, every Irish TE1 has been drafted. That run includes six Notre Dame tight ends in the first two rounds (Tyler Eifert, John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Kyle Rudolph, Troy Niklas, and Cole Kmet).
Irish fans immediately nicknamed Mayer “Baby Gronk.” Interestingly, Mayer told ESPN that he studies Travis Kelce more than Rob Gronkowski: “If I sit down and watch Travis Kelce tape, I learn 10 new things. There are a ton of things that he does in routes, and I really pride myself on the route-running game.” Mayer forced his way onto the field despite being in a TE room with Kmet, Tommy Tremble (a third-rounder), and Brock Wright (a UDFA who has out-performed expectations). Heading into his sophomore year, Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees said Mayer had a good chance to go down as Notre Dame’s best tight end of all-time.
By any metric, Mayer made good on Rees’ proclamation. In three years on campus, Mayer posted a 180-2099-18 receiving line. This while providing very strong blocking as a true dual-threat inline tight end. In only three seasons, Mayer left school as Notre Dame’s all-time leader in catches, yards, and touchdowns for a tight end. His 180 receptions are No. 3 in Irish history among all players, trailing only Michael Floyd and T.J. Jones. Mayer declared early for the NFL Draft after the season, skipping the Gator Bowl to begin his draft prep. His draft floor would seem to be the Bengals at No. 28. And what a story that would be. Mayer grew up just outside Cincinnati and has been a Bengals fan since childhood.
Strengths
An all-around tight end who brings the lunch pail. Mayer’s receiving ability is high-end. What jumped off the tape just as much was his yeoman effort. Mayer’s blocking highlight reel is worth the price of admission. He moves people and doesn’t stop working until the whistle blows. Mayer was PFF’s No. 1 graded tight end in the FBS last season. He did that in a poor offensive environment. Notre Dame didn’t have much skill talent outside of him. And the Irish were forced to roll with QB2 Drew Pyne, a noodle-armed scrambler, after the starter was knocked out for the year in early September.
Mayer was marked by opposing defenses, and his touches were force-fed. Notre Dame didn’t have another option to move the chains. With more coverage attention than ever before, Mayer continued to shine. His body positioning at the catch point could be a Tom Emanski video. Mayer is the quintessential basketball rebounder boxing out his man. His hands are extremely reliable, with a strong 5.6% drop rate in 2022. Mayer doesn’t create separation as easily as Dalton Kincaid, but he is ridiculously awesome at catching the ball in tight quarters. Last year, Mayer easily led this class with 17 contested catches. Mayer went 17-of-26 (65.4%) in those scenarios, a stupid conversion rate. Mayer can get jarred from behind and have a defender hanging off his back; he can be double-covered – it usually doesn’t matter if Michael Mayer is catching the ball.
I love Mayer’s hard-hard approach to inline work. But his receiving skill plays from anywhere on the alignment. Notre Dame moved Mayer around more than most realize. Last season, Mayer played 45.0% of his snaps in the slot, 39.9% inline, and 14.2% out wide. Mayer is as reliable in the intermediate area as you’ll see. He won’t make you miss as a runner, but Mayer can run over those who go high or leap over those who try to dive-bomb his knees. Mayer’s 12 missed-tackles-forced last fall tied for No. 5 in this class.
Weaknesses
Mayer was long considered the best tight end in this class, but Kincaid has gained rapid ground on him. This is all due to receiving utility. For all Mayer’s strength in this area, his ceiling is capped, primarily because Mayer doesn’t threaten deep like Kincaid, and Mayer is also a more limited route-runner. Mayer is detail-oriented in this phase, but he doesn’t have Kincaid’s fluidity in and out of route breaks, and he doesn’t create the separation that Kincaid does.
Mayer is exceptional in contested situations, but he gets into more of those than you’d like because he doesn’t naturally separate. Mayer posted a strong 4.7 forty at the NFL Combine, but 50th-percentile showings in both agility drills, a 76h-percentile broad jump, and a 56th-percentile vertical. Mayer’s lack of upper-echelon explosion and agility is apparent on tape. He builds up to top speed and is exaggerated and deliberate off the snap – not bouncy and explosive. Mayer is elite in contested situations – but he almost has to be for the type of game he plays. And that skill had better translate because he’s almost assuredly going to be in even more of those scenarios in the NFL.
2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Michael Mayer
It was a surprise that Mayer fell out of the first round of the NFL Draft, but the slide shouldn’t significantly affect his fantasy value. The Notre Dame product landed in a reasonably good situation with the Raiders, who needed a replacement for the departed Darren Waller.
A true dual-threat tight end who excelled as both a pass catcher and blocker at Notre Dame, Mayer frequently draws comparisons to Jason Witten, who was a top fantasy tight end for more than a decade. PFF awarded Mayer the highest grade of any FBS tight end last year, as he had 67-809-9 despite playing most of the season with backup QB Drew Pyne after starter Tyler Buchner sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in September. Mayer finished his college career as the all-time leader at Notre Dame, a school known for churning out NFL tight ends, in TE receptions (180), receiving yards (2,099) and TD catches (18).
Mayer is a high-effort player likely to maximize his potential. The 6-4, 249-pound Mayer excels at body positioning at the catch point, boxing out his defender like an NBA big man trying to grab a rebound. Mayer has reliable hands and consistently makes catches is tight quarters. And since Maher is such a strong blocker, he’s going to play a high percentage of snaps, maximizing the potential to accrue fantasy points.
The biggest knock on Mayer is that he has ordinary speed, unlike some of the other top tight ends in this class. He’s not a seem splitter who’s going to score many long touchdowns. Mayer’s overall athleticism is lacking as well. PlayerProfiler.com gives him an athleticism score of 99.0, which ranks 464th out of the 466 tight ends the site has ever graded.
In dynasty leagues, Mayer is worth considering at the end of the first round or early in the second round of 1QB rookie drafts (slightly higher in TE-premium formats, of course), and in the middle part of the second round in superflex rookie drafts. In redraft leagues, consider Mayer a high-end TE3. Although it’s not unprecedented for a rookie tight end to produce useful numbers in his rookie year, that is the exception rather than the rule.
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