The offseason continues to roll on at break-neck speed and the NFL draft is looming. Teams always reveal what they think about their rosters at this time of year so now is a good time to take stock of the quarterback market. Whether it be from a dynasty or best ball point of view, here are some quarterbacks that largely should be avoided in 2023 (unless you’re getting them at a discount).
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid
You may want to stay away from these Quarterbacks for the 2023 season.
It pains me deeply to say it, but right now there doesn’t seem to be much hope for Trey Lance while he remains on the roster of the San Francisco 49ers. Brock Purdy managed to avoid having Tommy John surgery and there is an air of optimism that his recovery will have him on track to take part in training camp. The Niners have done very little to publicly support Lance since his injury in Week 2 of 2022 and seem to be enamored with the small sample size they saw from Purdy. They may be ready to give “Mr. Irrelevant” the keys to the castle should Lance not surprise the team this offseason. Lance has lost the job through little fault of his own. When drafted, he wasn’t viewed as a finished product (much like Anthony Richardson in this year’s class) and the Niners didn’t intend to throw him in from day one. Unfortunately for Lance, when he did get a chance, he injured his thumb, hampering his rookie year progress, and we all know how small a sample size he had in 2022. Sadly though, the fact remains that Purdy dazzled, displaying creativity that Jimmy Garoppolo never showed. If Purdy didn’t get injured when he did, he might have taken the Niners to the Super Bowl. Lance has to convince both his teammates and coaching staff that he also has the ability to do that, but he also likely won’t get much time to do so. Perhaps Lance’s best hopes are that a team like the Texans decides to test out the Niners’ valuation on him.
Not too long ago, the Commanders were telling anyone who would listen that Sam Howell was their quarterback heading into 2023 as the team moved on from the miserable acquisition of Carson Wentz. Wentz missed eight games in 2022 with a broken finger, yet while he was unable to play, the team turned over the starting job to long-time backup, Taylor Heinicke, rather than Howell. Howell was given the final game of the season and completed 11 of his 19 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown, as well as adding one on the ground. The Commanders brought in Jacoby Brissett on a one-year $8m deal, which puts him 21st in the average value of contract among quarterbacks, with no backup quarterbacks earning more. Brissett kept the Browns more afloat than most people expected in 2022, before the return of Deshaun Watson, and was ninth among QBs in EPA per play, committing six interceptions in 11 games. Brissett is a well-rounded and experienced quarterback who the coaches like, and it’s worth noting that with the Commanders sold to new owners, they might not want to see below-average performances after spending $6 billion on the team.
The Giants decided on a case of “better the devil you know” with Daniel Jones, rather than dipping into the free agent market or trying to strike gold in the draft. Coming off his best season as a pro, Jones earned the opportunity to show whether that faith can be rewarded, having thrown for 3,205 yards, rushing for 708, putting up 18.4 fantasy points per game and only throwing five interceptions. The question remains though, how much of this can continue in 2023? Jones’s 19 turnover-worthy plays were the 12th most in the league, so perhaps he can count himself lucky that more didn’t become interceptions. With the Giants investing in upgraded targets for Jones, after he spent much of the year throwing to Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins, will we see Jones rush at the fifth-highest rate among starting quarterbacks? Jones is currently being drafted ahead of the likes of Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers on FFPC, and it wouldn’t feel like a surprise to see either outperform him this year.
There weren’t too many teams Baker Mayfield could have landed with arguably the best wide receiver group he’s ever played with, but Tampa Bay certainly presents that opportunity. Mayfield has gone from the team who drafted him, to his fourth NFL team in a matter of 12 months. There is perhaps some cause for some optimism with him when you think about the likes of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rachaad White and Russell Gage catching passes from him. Unfortunately, when it comes to Mayfield he has always performed at his best when behind a good offensive line, which is not something he looks set to have in Tampa. If the Buccanneers are able to pour large amounts of resources into their offensive line, then Mayfield becomes more intriguing, but for now, the idea of using a roster spot on Mayfield who is entrenched in a quarterback battle seems unappealing.
The Cardinals currently boast one of the worst rosters in the league, particularly on defense where outside of Budda Baker, many fans will struggle to name a starter. The team is suffering for several years of poor decision-making, which led to the dismissal of Kliff Kingsbury along with moving on from long-time General Manager, Steve Keim. Kyler Murray is currently recovering from a torn ACL and meniscus injury he suffered in the middle of December. While Murray recovers he’ll also have to get up to speed with a new coaching staff and learn a new playbook and terminology for the first time in his NFL career. For a quarterback not famed for a high work ethic, this raises some worries. If you’re a rebuilding dynasty team then acquiring Murray makes a lot of sense as you build for 2024 and beyond, but right now, it’s a risky move to have Murray on your roster when he might not play at all in 2023.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
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