Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
Positive & Negative Regression
Stats up to date through April 24, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Springer is currently mired in a 2-for-32 spell dating back to April 15. This stretch has brought his season slash line to a meager .196/.260/.304. It’s rough for fantasy managers to endure slumps like this, particularly from players selected in the first few rounds of drafts. Just stay patient.
Springer has struck out just seven times over 36 plate appearances during this slump. On top of that, he has registered five Barrels, a 44-percent Hard-Hit rate, and a 90.1 mph average exit velocity (EV). That has resulted in only one single and one double. That simply cannot hold if Springer continues to square up the baseball as he has.
Following a 2022 rookie campaign that was largely a mixed bag of results, Bello came into this year focused on taking the next step in his development. Unfortunately, that process took a detour early in Spring Training due to some inflammation in his pitching arm. That led to the righty beginning the regular season on the injured list.
Bello ultimately made his season debut for the Red Sox back on April 17. In that outing, his mid-90s velocity was there, but the Angels were able to plate five runs on eight hits while Bello fired 68 pitches over 2 2/3 innings. His next start, this past Sunday, was certainly a step in the right direction, as the young hurler ticked his velocity up a notch more, giving up three runs on five hits while delivering 82 pitches over 4 2/3 innings.
Bello has had to stretch things out in-season and should be at full steam going forward. His current 9.82 ERA and 2.18 WHIP through 7 1/3 innings are obviously ugly. The underlying metrics strongly suggest those numbers are very inflated beginning with a 4.08 xFIP. A .440 BABIP has led to a .371 AVG against him so far despite a 57.7-percent groundball rate and line-drive rate under 20 percent. Another promising measure for Bello is a 12.9-percent swinging-strike rate.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Stott has enjoyed an outstanding start to his second big league season. After producing just a .643 OPS over 127 games as a rookie, he is sporting an .834 mark with seven doubles and a couple of home runs through 22 games this year. His .340 AVG pops off the page more than anything else.
Stott began the year with an impressive 17-game hitting streak. His surge out of the gate saw him elevated to the leadoff spot in the Phillies’ batting order where he has started 12 of the last 13 games. Stott did belt one out of the yard this past Sunday, but he has begun to show signs of slowing down, going just 4-for-21 over his last five games. The downturn was sure to come sooner or later, as Stott’s 87.4 EV, 52.0-percent groundball rate, and 18.7-percent line-drive rate have led to a .264 xBA.
Kelly turned in a career-best season across the board last year. So far this year, he has managed to basically duplicate his 3.37 ERA with a 3.42 mark through five starts. That’s where the similarities pretty much stop. The table below shows some of the discouraging differences.
| WHIP | BB% | EV | xFIP | |
| 2022 | 1.14 | 7.6 | 88.5 mph | 3.86 |
| 2023 | 1.33 | 15.7 | 90.9 mph | 4.86 |
Kelly has walked at least four batters in four of his five starts this season. He issued a season-high five free passes while allowing four earned runs over five frames against the Padres this past Saturday. The 34-year-old hurler is due for an additional increase in his ERA, particularly if he fails to reign in his command.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and an 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.