Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to view each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
Week 3 Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through April 17, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Hayes’ .201 AVG and .610 OPS through his first 69 plate appearances are not inspiring anyone. Those numbers have been heading in the correct direction in recent days, though. Over his last four games, the 26-year-old third baseman has gone 6-for-16 with a double, a triple, and his first homer of the campaign.
The underlying metrics for Hayes point to more good work with the bat than the surface stats have shown thus far. He currently ranks in the 89th percentile of the league in EV (92.8 mph) and the 76th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate (47.4%). Hayes has struck out just seven times, but a .214 BABIP is diminishing the returns of his 87.5-percent contact rate. A .290 xBA and .443 xSLG are more indicative of where his numbers should be.
A couple of IL stints limited Eovaldi to just 109 1/3 innings over 20 starts for the Red Sox in 2022. He did make a pair of starts at the end of the regular season, but his velocity was a bit down from normal in those outings. The Rangers still brought the 2021 All-Star in on a lucrative free-agent deal this past offseason.
Many fantasy managers remained skeptical of Eovaldi during draft season this year. So far, that skepticism has appeared justified, as the 33-year-old righty is carrying a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through three starts. Those ratios are obviously ugly. However, there is more than ample evidence to suggest they should be improving in short order, beginning with a 2.69 xFIP.
Eovaldi has worked at least five full innings in each of his three starts to this point, averaging 87 pitches and, even more importantly at this point, 95.6 mph on his four-seamer. He has issued only three free passes and allowed a single home run in 15 2/3 innings while putting up a 27.9 K% and 13.3 SwStr%. Eovaldi’s .444 BABIP – his career mark is .312 – is mostly the result of some outrageously poor luck.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Diaz has enjoyed a great couple of weeks with the bat to begin the season. He has taken full advantage of the Coors Field effect, slashing .417/.462/.708 over eight games at his home stadium so far. Both of his home runs have come in Colorado as well.
Diaz is slugging just .370 in nine road games to this point. His .333 batting average is sitting in front of a .236 xBA, which much more closely resembles his career 246 AVG. The low expected average is backed up by a 55.0-percent groundball rate and 86.9 mph EV (23rd percentile). Diaz is worth hanging on to in deeper and two-catcher formats for now, but the idea of selling high makes sense too.
Clevinger’s 2.20 ERA through his first three starts seems impressive. His 5.85 xFIP screams, “Don’t buy it!”. The oft-injured veteran is lugging around a 1.35 WHIP, as he has already walked 10 batters and beaned two others in just 16 1/3 innings. He has only given up 12 hits so far (.203 AVG against), but that is not going to hold.
Clevinger is currently holding what would be career-worst marks in SwStr (8.2%), CSW (25.8%), Zone-Contact (79.6%) and EV (89.9 mph). He is also yet to give up a long ball despite a 47.7 FB%. That would go down as another career high. Clevinger’s Houdini act (83.3 LOB%) isn’t likely to continue much longer.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
