Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, we highlight players due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance to assist fantasy managers in properly viewing each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
Positive & Negative Regression
Stats up to date through April 10, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
A hyped prospect for the last few years, Gabriel Moreno’s first year with the Diamondbacks and as a starter in the bigs is not quite off to the start many expected. The young catcher is slashing an ugly .207/.200/.310 through his first 30 plate appearances of the season. However, his fantasy investors should not despair, as there is evidence that Moreno has been dealing with some bad breaks.
Moreno has struck out just six times to this point, as he is putting the ball in play at a good clip and, more importantly, with authority. Considering his 92.2 mph average exit velocity (EV) and 37.5-percent line-drive rate, Moreno’s .250 BABIP is unusually low. With a .303 xBA and .424 xSLG, look for the production to pick up soon.
Zack Wheeler entered the season as one of the league’s most reliably strong performers on the mound. He was just barely edged out of the NL Cy Young Award by Corbin Burnes in 2021 and followed that up with more ace-caliber numbers in 2022. So, his 5.59 ERA and 1.66 WHIP after his first two starts this season are very surprising.
What’s driven those ratios up far beyond the norm for Wheeler? Well, mostly, just straight bad luck. The veteran righty’s velocity (avg fastball 95.7 mph), swinging-strike rate (11.8%) and strikeout rate (27.3%) all resemble marks from last year. The glaring difference for Wheeler is the egregious .407 BABIP against him despite an 85.8 mph EV and a 35.7 HardHit%. That BABIP will come down, and it should happen quickly with a favorable matchup against the Marlins coming this week.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Brian Anderson immediately made his name known among his new fans in Milwaukee this year. The long-time Marlin began the season with a seven-game hitting streak, going 10-for-20 with three homers, a double and a whopping 10 RBI. His fantasy rostership understandably soared after this, but Anderson’s track record is long enough to make it almost certain that this would not continue.
Over the last five seasons in Miami, Anderson has posted a .256/.341/.412 slash line with a 23.0 K% in over 500 games. In fact, the negative regression has already begun. He has gone 0-for-10 with six strikeouts over his last three games, reaching base just once.
Nick Pivetta has been outstanding out of the gate for the Red Sox. The 30-year-old righty has given up just one earned run (three runs) on six hits while striking out 12 over his first 10 innings of the campaign. He even managed to hold the scalding-hot Rays scoreless over five frames Monday night.
We have seen strong stretches on the mound from Pivetta before, but it never seems to stick for too long. There are underlying reasons to believe this one won’t either. The combo of a 93.9 mph EV, 68.0 HardHit% and 11.9 BB% results in an eye-popping 6.27 expected ERA. Further, Pivetta’s .174 BABIP against is far below his career mark of .309.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and an 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.