Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression
Stats up to date through April 3, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
With Witt surging into the first round of many fantasy baseball drafts this year, it was certainly somewhat discouraging to see him go 0-for-10 with no counting stats over the Royals’ first three games. Not to worry, as he got on the board Monday. The 22-year-old slugger went 2-for-3 with a couple of singles, a run scored and a steal in a 9-5 win over the Blue Jays to kick off the week.
Over his 16 plate appearances so far this season, Witt has walked three times, struck out just three times and is scalding the baseball. On the 10 balls put in play to this point, he has an average exit velocity (EV) of 99.3 mph and a ridiculous 70-percent hard-hit rate.
Do not let an eye-popping 6.00 ERA beside Webb’s name fool you. The Giants ace was very good on Opening Day at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, starting with the 12 strikeouts and 16.3 SwStr% he recorded. He did give up a couple of homers, but the groundball specialist only allowed four flyballs. Do not expect the long ball to be a problem going forward for Webb. Over the last two seasons combined, he has allowed just 20 HR across 340 2/3 innings (0.53 HR/9).
Players Due for Negative Regression
Many a fantasy manager has waited since 2019 to see Moncada really deliver with the bat. Following that big season, he has posted pedestrian numbers and spent a chunk of time on the IL. Moncada’s rough 2022 campaign soured most prognosticators on his outlook. Well, he has come into 2023 absolutely hammering the ball. Through five games, the Cuban native has put up a 1.359 OPS with four doubles and two homers.
Where’s the bad? For starters, Moncada has already struck out seven times (31.8%) this season. In addition, he has barreled up just one (7.1%) of his 14 balls put in play and currently carries an expected AVG of .212. He is certainly hitting the ball hard, but his off-the-chart stats are not likely to sustain very long. Capitalize now if you can.
Lyles had a fairly solid (3.76 ERA in 14 starts) second half for the surprising Orioles in 2022. The veteran righty turned that into a two-year deal with the Royals this past offseason. Lyles’ debut with his new club went well enough, as he held the division rival Twins to two runs (one earned) on five hits while striking out two and walking two across 5 1/3 innings. However, there was certainly some good fortune involved in that outing.
Lyles allowed hard contact on 9-of-19 balls in play with an average EV of 91.9 mph. Combine that with a 57.9 FB%, and that’s not a recipe for sustained success. Lyles has a long resume of mediocrity, so there really is not much to buy into here.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and an 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.