It is an odd time of the offseason sandwiched between free agency and the draft. Perhaps it’s the time of year when we are all at risk of over-analyzing players and their situations if that’s possible.
As players traded in one helmet for another during free agency, many veterans suddenly face competition in their quest for snaps. Some situations may have improved, but as we sit just a few days out of the NFL Draft, we know better than to assume that these roles are finalized.
In addition to the on-field conditions, some players have found themselves in the spotlight for their off-field behavior. Regardless of the reason, it’s important to track which players are trending up and which are trending down as we gear up for the draft. Let’s check in on the latest trends.
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Players Trending Up & Down (2023 Fantasy Football)
Trending Up
Elijah Moore
We’re a long way removed from Elijah Moore’s six-week breakout during his rookie season but don’t forget how explosive he was during that stretch. From Week 7 through 12 in 2022, Moore was the WR3 with 459 receiving yards to go with five scores before a combination of injuries ended his season. We all know the story of his sophomore campaign, but Moore was not a bad player when he was involved in the action, proven by his 102.8% true catch rate, fifth best among wide receivers. The third-year pro will now team up with Deshaun Watson in Cleveland, where he will not only see improved quarterback play but a larger role to work with. There have been whispers all offseason of the Browns’ intent to air it out more often, and Moore immediately slides in as a top target for Deshaun Watson.
Brandin Cooks
Another wide receiver who will see a boost with his new squad, Brandin Cooks finds himself on his fifth team as he will snap his helmet up with the star on the sides this year. Coming off a tough season with a porous Texans offense, Cooks has reached 1,000 yards in six of his nine seasons and will provide a downfield threat desperately needed for Dak and the ‘Boys. As good as CeeDee Lamb is, the offense struggled without Amari Cooper and a hobbled Michael Gallup. Cooks should be an ideal complement to Lamb and be able to return to his regular 1,000-yard total.
Rhamondre Stevenson
With Damien Harris off to Buffalo, the Patriots backfield fully belongs to Rhamondre Stevenson. The team signed James Robinson, who is a solid player, but he doesn’t specialize in any single area. In other words, Stevenson isn’t at risk of losing a piece of his role to Robinson, who will likely serve as the primary backup rather than a specialist in any area. Stevenson showed he’s more than capable of a full-time role when he parlayed last season’s opportunities into an RB7 finish. Assuming the Patriots don’t do something crazy on draft day, I’d expect more of the same from Stevenson next season.
Alexander Mattison
Wait, but he returned to Minnesota to be the backup running back, right? Not so fast. The Alexander Mattison market appeared quiet during the free agency period, and maybe it was, but the Vikings handed him $7 million for the next two years, including $6.35 million guaranteed. It’s not a huge deal, but a sizeable bag for a backup and enough to push their backfield total close to a $20 million expense in each of the next two years. If the Vikings had planned to keep Dalvin Cook, surely they could have found a more cost-effective backup. And if Mattison expected Cook to return, surely he could have found a better opportunity elsewhere. Perhaps it’s my tinfoil hat speaking, but I’m hearing more about the possibility of Cook relocating, which bodes well for Mattison’s stock.
Rashaad Penny
Last year’s league leader in true yards per carry with 5.4, Rashaad Penny, will now benefit from running behind the NFL’s best offensive line. An offensive line that allowed Miles Sanders to dismantle defenses to the tune of 1,269 rushing yards. Penny has been a force when healthy, which is always the question with Penny. Outside of a protective bubble, I can’t think of a better fit for Penny than Philadelphia. The Eagles may add to the position in the draft, but for now, it’s stock up for Penny.
Garrett Wilson
Thank you, Captain Obvious. The offensive rookie of the year will go from Mike White, Joe Flacco, and Zach Wilson to a future hall of famer in Aaron Rodgers. Garrett Wilson was already an expensive asset in the fantasy football landscape, but you’ll be emptying your 401k to acquire a share at this point. We know the connection that Rodgers has with Allen Lazard, and that will likely transfer to New York, but Rodgers is no fool. Once he and Wilson are on the same page, the football will be heading Wilson’s way a whole lot.
Trending Down
Joe Mixon
Where do we start with Joe Mixon? He’s been in the news all offseason, and not for the right reasons. But even before that, Mixon struggled on the field last season with 3.9 yards per carry and was effectively out-produced by Samaje Perine on a per-touch basis. In addition, Mixon was aggravated menacing to begin the offseason before being investigated after a minor was shot outside of his home. He was not charged in that incident, but Mixon seems to consistently find himself in turmoil. The Bengals can save $10 million by cutting the running back, which is a move that remains on the table. The organization has been mostly quiet regarding Mixon’s status, but EVP Katie Blackburn gave an awkward interview that fell miles short of a reassurance that Mixon will be back. The Bengals are a team to watch on draft day as a running back landing spot, but either way, Mixon is tumbling.
D’Andre Swift
I’d be remised if I didn’t take every opportunity to point out that I was screaming to sell D’Andre Swift after his huge Week 1 last season. I’ve never been much of a Swift guy, and I’m not looking for a pat on the back, although it would be nice, but the history we have with Swift highlights the reasons I’ve been out. His vision has yet to improve, and the coaching staff clearly doesn’t trust him. If you were holding out hope that a Jamaal Williams exit would grease the wheels for a Swift takeover, then you haven’t been paying attention. Your punishment for the lack of attentiveness? Enter David Montgomery, a slightly above-average plodder who is here to shove your dreams into the endzone 17 times. Sound familiar?
Chase Claypool
For a moment, much of the fantasy world treated Chase Claypool as the Steelers’ future WR1. Nearly six months following the Bears’ inexplicable trade of the 32nd pick in this year’s draft to acquire Claypool, the third-year wide receiver now finds himself third on the depth chart behind D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney. That alone is a tough scene for Claypool stakeholders but add in the fact that Chicago operated with the lowest percentage of pass plays last season, and it gets very tough to see a successful path forward.
Mike Evans
There’s still a chance Mike Evans is traded prior to the start of the NFL season, but he’s not going anywhere to be a team’s top wideout. The alternative, however, appears to be Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. After blissfully catching passes from one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in the past few years, Evans is staring down the barrel of a rebuilding offense. It’s not what you want to see for a wide receiver who has seen his advanced metrics dip and will turn 30 this offseason. Unless another heroic quarterback comes calling, Evans will likely ride the decline through the end of his career.
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