Winning the trade market is crucial to success, especially after the waiver wire’s value diminishes during the season’s first week or two. A well-executed buy-low deal can set your team up for success come playoff time, while a strong sell-high trade enables you to capitalize on a player’s peak value before their performance inevitably declines. Our featured analysts are back to share their top undervalued and overvalued trade candidates at this point in the season.
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Players to Buy Low and Sell High
Which one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?
MJ Melendez (C,OF – KC)
“I am making the rounds to get MJ Melendez as many places as possible. Statcast says he is hitting the cover off the ball, with an xSLG on fastballs being 358 points HIGHER than his current and an xwOBACON of .527. At some point, his .229 BABIP should normalize in the .280-range, and then we’ll be off and running. I am willing to give up a lower-tier starter (say Jose Urquidy) and a young hitter like Joey Wiemer for him in non-dynasty leagues.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Alek Manoah (SP – TOR)
“I know Alek Manoah has been a disappointment. His velocity improved with weather conditions, though, and it’s only April. Manoah pitches on a World Series contender, and although the 15 walks are troubling, in 2022, this guy had a 2.22 ERA over 31 starts and walked just 51 batters all year over 196 IP. All accounts are he’s healthy, so I’m buying.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Ryan Mountcastle (1B – BAL)
“2023 has looked a lot like 2022 for Ryan Mountcastle, with hard-hit balls winding up in outs right and left. He’s batting .219 with a .764 OPS despite sitting just one home run shy of the American League lead at the moment. And it’s not just the homers; Mountcastle’s batted ball data is a sea of Statcast red. He’s 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 94th percentile in Hard Hit %, 96th percentile in xSLG and 95th percentile in Barrel %. He’s also above 80th percentile in xwOBA and xBA. In every possible way, Mountcastle has been tearing the cover off the ball, yet he is once again struggling with some brutal luck. Even after last year, I’m more than willing to bet that these scorched balls start finding more gaps sooner rather than later.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)
“I could pick any number of pitchers here. Most of them have been bad, and most of them should be better as the season goes on. I’ll go with Aaron Nola this time around. He has a grotesque 5.91 ERA through four starts over 21 1/3 IP, and his K/9 is down around 8.00. But his expected numbers are all much better: 3.59 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.38 SIERA, 3.64 xERA. He isn’t going to give you sub-3.00 ERA numbers, but you’re going to get solid numbers from Nola. Buy him now, and you’ll get around 200 innings and more than 200 strikeouts to go with an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood 3.50. As Bart Simpson would say, that ain’t not bad. I’m selling high on any or all of the hot-start hitters like Bryson Stott, Patrick Wisdom, Luis Arraez, and Kris Bryant.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
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Which one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?
Chris Sale (SP – BOS)
“If you have Chris Sale, run right now to your nearest league mate who loves him and offer him up for whatever piece you’re missing. Sale finally had a “Chris Sale” start yesterday against the Twins, pitching six innings while striking out 11 and only walking two. This is great until you realize the Twins strike out the fifth-most in baseball and that THIS might be the outlier instead of the norm. I would love to get a middle infielder like Nolan Gorman for him, but I definitely want to get this done before his next start.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Bryson Stott (2B,SS – PHI)
“Bryson Stott is on a tear for the Phillies to open the season, but his .459 BABIP isn’t going to last. Stott has a .113 ISO, a 22,2% K rate and a 1.1% BB rate. It’s only a matter of time before he slows down to a screeching halt. Let’s not forget, Stott had a .653 OPS last year, so this massive jump is likely a mirage.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Patrick Wisdom (1B,3B,OF – CHC)
“Selling high on Patrick Wisdom is an exercise in skepticism. It’s not often that you see a player break out in such an enormous way at age 31, but Wisdom is legitimately crushing the ball (his batted ball data is similarly powerful to Mountcastle’s). However, while his strikeout rate (30.6%) is down from his career number of 36.7%, it’s still quite high. Wisdom is also benefitting from a Cubs lineup significantly outperforming my expectations. They’re currently the fourth-highest-scoring team in baseball, and I expect that number to come way down, taking some of Wisdom’s counting stat opportunities with it. Between the unexpected late career explosion and the high strikeout totals, Wisdom seems like an obvious case of a guy who will regress. I don’t expect him to fall completely off a cliff given the obvious power, and the positional flexibility is nice, but if you can convince a manager that his scorching hot start is legitimate, there’s a ton of value to be mined in a trade here.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
“Patrick Wisdom is definitely going to hit .280+ with a 42% HR/FB, .474 ISO, and 1.000+ OPS for the rest of the season. Insert Pinocchio gif here. Sure, he’s SLIGHTLY cut down on the strikeouts and has eight home runs in 15 games. But we’re still talking about a rate of above 30+ for the strikeouts, and Wisdom has a long enough track record that we know what we’re dealing with here. His xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all unsurprisingly predicting regression despite the contact numbers. And look, the power is real. We know that, too. He could very well hit 30+ home runs this season, especially if we’re dealing with juiced baseballs in a warm Wrigley Park this summer. But he isn’t going to bat .280. He’s probably going to bat closer to .215 and crush your batting average. Sell him high now while his value is at its peak, and see if you can get one of these pitchers who is off to a slow start. ”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
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