Winning the trade market is at least as important as nailing the draft. The waiver wire holds significant value throughout the season’s first week or two. But after that, trading is by far the best way to significantly improve your team in an instant. A good buy-low deal will have you reaping the rewards come playoff time. On the flip side, a strong sell-high deal will allow you to capitalize on a player’s peak value before his performance eventually comes back down to earth. Our featured analysts are back to share their top undervalued and overvalued trade candidates at this point in the season.
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Players to Buy Low and Sell High
Which one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?
Gunnar Henderson (3B,SS – BAL)
“The concept of buying low less than a week into the season is a little silly, considering how small our sample size is. But if anybody is panicking on Gunnar Henderson because of his .167 batting average, now is the time to happily take advantage of his slow start. Despite going 2-for-12 to start the year, Henderson still has an on-base percentage of .444 and an OPS+ of 135. The talent is real, and he’s improved every single year as a prospect despite facing stiffer competition at every level. There’s no reason to think this is anything other than a mini-slump to begin the season, and he should still be considered an easy top-10 3B in fantasy rest of season.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Ryan McMahon (2B,3B – COL)
“I still wholly believe that Ryan McMahon will outperform his projections, and his cold start fits right into the opportunity to nab him while he is still available. The hits and power will come, especially once Colorado heads back home. His eligibility at 2B and 3B is just a booster. But if someone has soured on his slow 3-for-19 start and wants an OF like Joey Wiemer or an SP like Charlie Morton, I would make that trade.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Jazz Chisholm (2B,OF – MIA)
“At the time of writing this, Jazz Chisholm is hitting .150 with no steals. Jazz likely cost a decent investment on draft day, especially after the Altuve injury. The Marlins had to face a tough Mets rotation to open the season, so I’m not taking too much from the slow start. The steals will come, and Chisholm can be streaky. Perhaps a package involving Jonathan India+ would be a good starting point as the Reds’ hot start will not last.” Update: Chisholm left Wednesday afternoon’s game against the Twins with an apparent injury after a failed stolen base attempt in the first inning.
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Jordan Montgomery (SP – STL)
“Since two of my favorites, Gunnar Henderson and Ryan McMahon were already claimed by Ryan and Kelly, I’ll pivot to pitching. We’ve seen some pretty bad pitching through the first week of the season, and I’m looking to buy low on pretty much anyone I can find available. And while I’m aiming high with Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb, and Zac Gallen, Jordan Montgomery is someone in that middle tier of pitchers who might be more available right now. He’s only toed the rubber once so far, but he posted a 5.40 K/9 while pitching to a 5.40 ERA. His xERA (6.81) points to that number being earned, but his FIP from that start was just 2.63. Now, we’re talking about an extremely small sample size, and these numbers don’t even really matter. What matters is that he was already a mid-level starting pitcher for fantasy and got off to a slow start. He was excellent once he arrived in St. Louis in the middle of last season, pitching to a 3.11 ERA with 61 strikeouts over 63 2/3 innings. There are also two factors that could prove to be very important based on what we have seen around baseball this first week. Montgomery is a lefty, so he may not be as affected by the new rules that have led to a boon in stolen bases. He has also limited hard contact in his career, which could be very important since the balls seem to once again be jumping out of ballparks. With everyone else scrambling to find steals, I might see if I can swap one of my sell-high players like Jorge Mateo (see below) or flip someone like Joey Gallo who is off to a hot start and see if I can acquire someone like Montgomery to boost my rotation.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
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Which one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?
Joey Gallo (1B,OF – MIN)
“Please, please, please, if you have the opportunity, sell high on Joey Gallo right now. Four good games to start the year (and really not even that, since he was hitless in the first two games of the season) is not enough to undo years of data we have on him as a player. Gallo has always had power, so the fact that three of his first four hits of the season have been home runs isn’t even that shocking. Yes, he could still theoretically hit 40 home runs this season. He also is all but guaranteed to drag you down in every other category, and even 40 homers is far from a lock. He’s a player I’m very comfortable being wrong on. If he goes out and smashes all year long, congratulations to those who believed. I just won’t have been one of them.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Brian Anderson (3B,OF – MIL)
“I’m unsure how many people have rostered Brian Anderson, but now is the time to sell. The fact that he qualifies at 3B is the draw, so find the person in your league who needs a third baseman and offer him up for a healthy starting pitcher or a high K/9 reliever, depending on your league categories. His ISO is 120 points higher than his career average, and he is on a tear. I’d pull the trigger if someone is willing to part with an SP like Justin Steele.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Nolan Gorman (2B – STL)
“Nolan Gorman is off to a great start and even has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). However, Gorman has a long history of swing and miss. There’s always been power, but if you could flip Gorman in a package for the aforementioned struggling Jazz Chisholm, I’d do that in a second.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Jorge Mateo (SS – BAL)
“Someone in your league is panicking about steals right now. MLB teams (except for the Twins) are running even more than many expected, and the success rate for stolen bases is through the roof. If you didn’t fill out your roster with players capable of swiping bags, you could already be in a double-digit hole. Enter Jorge Mateo, who already has four stolen bases. He’s also already hit two home runs, which is more of a surprise than the steals. In 2022, Mateo hit 13 HR and led the AL with 35 stolen bases, but he hit just .221 and struck out more than 27% of the time. His current walk and strikeout rates (both 11.8%, oddly enough) aren’t sustainable for him, and neither, obviously, is the .357 average. He could easily steal 40 bases and hit 15 home runs this year, especially since early data points to the balls being juiced to 2019 levels once again. But he’s probably going to hit around .230, and he’s a candidate to lose his starting job or playing time if he starts to struggle. Cash in on the early success, and target the manager in your league who’s likely already looking for speed. I need power in most of my leagues, so I might try to flip Mateo for someone like Ryan McMahon or see if I can work out a bigger package to buy low on someone like Alex Bregman.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
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