We’ve arrived at The Masters. It’s the first Major of the PGA Tour season and it’ll certainly have all of the entertainment to offer bettors as Tiger Woods will make his 25th appearance in search of his record-tying sixth Green Jacket. Other prominent LIV Golf players such as Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, and Bryson DeChambeau will also be competing in the field of 88 at Augusta National Golf Club this week.
Augusta is a difficult course based on the small surface area of the Bentgrass greens, which tend to run at a high velocity in comparison to its Bermudagrass counterpart that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent events played in Florida and Texas. The winning scorecard has been -10-under-par in each of the previous two Masters, as World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler prepares to defend his 2022 title yet another time this season. Hideki Matsuyama wound up -10-under-par in 2021, which followed Dustin Johnson’s scorching -20-under-par performance in the Fall of 2020 without any fans due to the Covid-19 pandemic. We all can remember the magic that happened in 2019, as Tiger Woods made a late push on Sunday to wind up earning his fifth outright win at The Masters at -13-under-par, beating Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, and Francesco Molinari in a legacy-defining moment.
There are so many factors at play when it comes to the field and the conditions surrounding Augusta this week. The weather will start off hot in the opening round but the final three rounds are expected to have much cooler temperatures with plenty of wind and rain to challenge approach shots and putts. When playing DFS, it’s OK to target players who tend to wind up with bogeys, as they aren’t penalized nearly as much as birdies are rewarded at 6x value. Look for the golfers who are good at bouncing back, such as Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, or others who can consistently collect three to five birdies per round.
I’ve dug into the slate ahead of the 2023 Masters and have found six golfers who are priority additions to DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. I’ll explain why but first, let’s take a look at the previous outright winners over the past five years, along with a few relevant betting stats, and a course overview of Augusta National Golf Club. Good luck this weekend, let’s cash some contests and wind up celebrating with the players on the podium once the final round concludes on Sunday evening.
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Previous Winners
- 2022 – Scottie Scheffler (-10)
- 2021 – Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020 – Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019 – Tiger Woods ((-13)
- 2018 – Patrick Reed (-15)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Bounce Back Percentage
Course Overview
Augusta National is a par 72 that runs north of 7,500 yards. It features Bentgrass greens that run upwards of 12.5 feet via the Stimpmeter, while the square footage of these greens tends to be on the smaller side. That means ball striking and approach shots become the priority for players seeking to drain birdie putts and avoid bogeys. The fairways are lined with Dogwood trees but they run wider than what we’ve seen in Florida and Texas, so there shouldn’t be nearly as many errant lies off of the tee.
Deep sand bunkers flank much of the greens and fairways, per usual, but there aren’t many water hazards to navigate until the back nine begins. It does come into play at Amen Corner on the par 3 16th hole, named Redbud, as the water hazard stretches along the left side of the fairway and cuts right up onto the rough surrounding the green. A few of the fairways are doglegged, obscuring the hole location depending on the tee box lie for the approach shot, while there is an even distribution of par 3s and par 5s across the front and back nine. Accuracy should be favored over power at Augusta, but the majority of the par 4 holes run upward of 450 yards, so power with driver and irons shouldn’t be completely discounted. Putting will be the big separator, especially on fast greens that could wind up slow with rain in the forecast. Adapting to the speed and cut of the Bentgrass greens will be the easiest way for a player to rise or fall down the leaderboard.
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Rory McIlroy: $10,600
Rory McIlroy went -8-under-par on Sunday at Augusta last season, finishing alone in second place behind Scheffler. The 33-year-old star player from Northern Ireland has 23 outright wins in his career over the past 14 seasons, but the Green Jacket continues to elude him. There’s a reason we’re seeing McIlroy get 7/1 odds as the outright betting favorite alongside Scheffler. He nearly won outright at TPC Sawgrass with a T2 finish, sinking 18 birdies and producing 94.5 DK points. We’re landing McIlroy at a $10.6K salary, which is lower than Scheffler and Jon Rahm, so I’m happily investing at this price and based on McIlroy’s current form and desire to finally win at Augusta.
Xander Schauffele: $9,000
Xander Schauffele is another high-value addition to lineups based on his previous form at Augusta National and how well he performs with his irons. The 29-year-old Californian logged consecutive T2, T17, and T3 finishes before missing the cut for the first time in 2022. Since withdrawing from Sentry in early January due to back issues, Schauffele has gone on to log three T10 finishes in seven events, including two more inside of the top 25. The best part is that Schauffele has drained 13-18 birdies in each of his previous five events played, making the cut at every event, so we can expect a solid 65-90 DK points from him to transfer the momentum from Match Play into the first two rounds to advance past the cut and climb the leaderboard at Augusta this weekend.
Justin Rose: $7,800
42-year-old Englishman, Justin Rose, will compete in his 18th Masters tournament during Thursday’s opening round. Rose has had a resurgent year, recording an outright win at Pebble Beach in February, while also logging two other T10 finishes across 10 events played. He is ranked 22nd in total strokes gained, including possessing the 28th ranked strokes gained putting metric, which puts him ahead of many other golfers at Augusta based on his skill set and past success at the course. Rose has missed the cut twice at Augusta in the last four appearances he’s made, but in between, he’s finished T23 and 7th, so the ceiling is intact at a ridiculously low salary. Rose is worth the investment and is a quality salary-saving option in DraftKings lineups.
Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Cameron Smith: $11,500
Despite the constant scrutiny directed at Cameron Smith for his decision to leave the PGA Tour for LIV Golf, the 29-year-old Aussie has been one of the most consistent top performers at Augusta National since 2020. Smith has logged T2, T10, and T3 finishes at The Masters and will look to extend his T10 streak to four consecutive years in 2023. Last year on the PGA Tour, Smith recorded three outright wins, including a Major at St. Thomas in Scotland, while also ranking eighth in strokes gained putting. His irons are precise, so as long as he can keep his tee shots under control and avoid bad lies, Smith is a must-add blue-chip prospect in FanDuel lineups despite the elevated salary.
Jason Day: $10,700
Aussie veteran Jason Day is another experienced player at Augusta who is having a bounce-back campaign in 2023. The 35-year-old will make his 12th appearance at The Masters and his first in two years, following consecutive missed cuts in 2020 and 2021. Day is equipped with some of the best irons and putter on the PGA Tour this season, ranking fifth in total strokes gained, including 10th tee-to-green and 15th putting. He hits over 69 percent of greens in regulation and is also the second-best scrambler, so he can do it all. He’s a bit expensive at $10.7K but I expect a huge showing from Day, who has four T10 finishes in 11 previous appearances at Augusta National. Prioritize him in your FanDuel lineups accordingly.
Corey Conners: $9,400
I was a bit surprised to see how consistently dominant Corey Conners has performed at Augusta entering Thursday’s opening round. The 31-year-old Canadian is fresh off of his second career outright win at Valero, where he’s won both times in his career, so expect the confidence to be on full display during The Masters. It’ll be Conners’ sixth appearance at Augusta National, where he’s rattled off three consecutive T10 finishes (T10, T8, T6) since 2020. He’s an excellent ball striker, ranking 19th in strokes gained off-the-tee, 26th approaching the green, and 24th tee-to-green. Finding the greens in regulation is no challenge for Conners, but he’ll need to work on his driving accuracy and putter consistency to be a threat to win outright. Regardless, at $9.4K on FanDuel, Conners is a massive value and should yield a floor of 75 FD points with a 90-plus point ceiling.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.