The 2023 NFL Draft is here! After months of waiting, we finally know where the 2023 NFL Draft class will land. This information shapes the outlook for rookies in 2023 and beyond. We’re going to have you covered throughout and following the 2023 NFL Draft to help you prepare for your fantasy football leagues. Next up for many will be dynasty rookie drafts. To help you prepare to make your dynasty rookie draft picks, let’s dive into Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft profile as well as Pat Fitzmaurice’s dynasty rookie draft outlook for Luke Musgrave.
Dynasty Rookie Picks & Predictions: Packers Draft Luke Musgrave
Let’s first see what NFL Draft expert Thor Nystrom says about Luke Musgrave.
Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Outlook & Player Comp
Player comparison: Cole Kmet
Musgrave is the nephew of former NFL QB Bill Musgrave. He was a multi-sport athlete in high school with eclectic tastes – lacrosse, track, and a ski racing champion in addition to football. He’s a primo north-south athlete in a long, rangy frame. Musgrave’s max speed of 20.05 mph at the Senior Bowl was the fastest any tight end in Mobile has ever been tracked in the five years they’ve been releasing that information. Musgrave backed that up by running a 93rd-percentile 4.61 forty with 96th-percentile-or-higher splits and 90th-percentile-or-higher jumps.
Musgrave wasn’t dominant at the Senior Bowl. But he had a strong week, and his athletic advantage over all the other tight ends was plain as day. In Mobile, we saw some of the downfield utility Musgrave sporadically flashed at Oregon State. He caught 7-of-13 targets 20+ yards downfield the past two campaigns with no drops. Musgrave is a pure dice roll on potential. Because right now, all we have on him is 13 collegiate starts and 47 collegiate catches over four seasons. Last season was supposed to be the breakout year. But Musgrave suffered a season-ending knee injury in the final minutes of the Sept. 11 game against Fresno State.
He was humming up to that point. Musgrave posted a 6-89-1 line in the opening-week upset over Boise State. He was Oregon State’s leading receiver again in the upset over Fresno State, posting a 5-80-0 line. Those high on Musgrave argue that if he’d never gotten hurt, he would have gone ballistic all season and been viewed as a consensus first-round prospect. They fail to mention that Musgrave’s first two games of 2022 – Musgrave caught 11-of-15 targets (8.3% drop rate) – were entirely out of line with the three years that came before them.
He left college with a career drop rate of 16.1%. That’s six percentage points above the “red flag” area. Musgrave is also not super reliable in contested situations, going a career 7-for-18 in them. This could be a problem at the next level because Musgrave’s average agility doesn’t buy him much separation in the intermediate area. His agility tests were his worst during the pre-draft process, with a 56th-percentile shuttle and 76th-percentile three-cone. His collegiate routes in that sector were typically straightforward one-note affairs with rounded breaks.
Musgrave needs to beat you with acceleration and speed along his route, catch radius, and body positioning when the ball is descending because he doesn’t create any with deception or shake. This also goes for when Musgrave has the ball in his hands. Neither a powerful runner nor an elusive one, Musgrave is a straight-line, upright mover. He gives you lots of surface area to hit and is target practice for hungry linebackers and safeties flying downhill. Per PFF, Musgrave broke only two tackles over his entire career.
Musgrave is a mediocre blocker. He understands his assignment and leverage, and those things, in conjunction with his frame, feet, and initial punch, helped him win skirmishes in the Pac-12. Musgrave mostly played inline for the Beavers, and his frame certainly makes him look at home there. But Musgrave doesn’t have the play strength or nasty attitude to trust against NFL edge defenders – he gets bullied by power. So it’ll be interesting to see if Musgrave’s NFL team uses him more out of the slot than he got used to in Eugene.
What you like about Musgrave is how you’ve seen him win downfield and how his frame, length, and athletic profile would seem to indicate that this aspect of his game will translate. He tracks the ball well downtown, keeps his hands in until the moment of truth to prevent the defender from getting a head-start, and has a really good feel for his surroundings. What we’ve seen of Musgrave’s body control navigating the end zone and sidelines are upper-echelon. He can pin a defender to his back and get his feet in while snatching the ball cleanly. This is the area of the game where you see some of that multi-sport athlete poking out.
I love that stuff – and it has big value at the next level. But there are simply too many questions in Musgrave’s eval for me to rank him any higher.
2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook: Luke Musgrave
Lofty draft capital? Check. Good landing spot? Check. Luke Musgrave is ready for liftoff.
The TE-hungry Packers, who had Josiah Deguara at the top of their TE depth chart before the NFL Draft, grabbed Musgrave early in the second round, with the 42nd overall pick. He figures to step right into the starting lineup and should immediately carve out a significant role for a team that went into the draft woefully short on pass catchers. It’s mildly concerning that the Packers also spent a third-round draft pick on TE Tucker Kraft, but Musgrave would seem to be the favorite for a starting role.
Musgrave might have more pass-catching upside than any tight end in this class — and this is a very good TE class. The 6-5 1/2, 253-pound Musgrave has a huge frame and wingspan, but he has speed that belies his size. Musgrave ran a 4.61 at the NFL Scouting Combine, which at his size gives him a 94th percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com. At the Senior Bowl, Musgrave was measured at a top speed of 20.05 mph — the fastest speed recorded by any tight end in the five years since Senior Bowl officials started recording top speeds. Musgrave, the nephew of former NFL QB and current Browns assistant coach Bill Musgrave, has the potential to become a downfield playmaker — a rare quality for an NFL tight end.
The big question is whether Musgrave can stay on the field. He missed 11 games for Oregon State in 2022 with a knee injury, and he missed two games with a concussion in high school. Musgrave hasn’t shown much elusiveness after the catch. According to PFF, he has broken only two tackles in his college career.
In dynasty rookie drafts, Musgrave is likely to go in the late first round or early second round in 1QB leagues, and in the early-to-mid second round in superflex drafts.
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