Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft is in the bag. We experienced some selections that left us fist-pumping as we salivated over their redraft and dynasty prognoses. It wasn’t all fun and games, though, as some teams left us crying into our hands as we screamed to the heavens, “Why? Oh, why?”
As we process the pleasure and pain of this first day of the NFL Draft, let’s unpack some winners and losers from a fantasy football perspective.
- Thor Nystrom’s Best Remaining Day 2 Prospects
- NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers
- Round 1 NFL Draft Picks: Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook
- Dynasty Rookies: Best Remaining Day 2 Picks & Predictions
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
NFL Draft: Round 1 Winners
Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Lamar. Jackson. TO THE MOON.
SAY IT WITH ME!!!! pic.twitter.com/cU7KQtquDb
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 28, 2023
Hear me now. Lamar Jackson to the moon! Start the countdown because liftoff is imminent. Jackson is now surrounded by Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Zay Flowers, making this easily the most stocked skill cupboard he’s ever had to work with.
Under the watchful eye of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, this offense should be a treat to watch this season. Jackson has been liberated from the run-heavy antiquated idiocy of Greg Roman, which could lead to more play volume in 2023. In three of Monken’s last four seasons as an offensive mastermind, he’s ranked inside the top 12 (eighth, 11th, fourth) in neutral script pace. The arrow is pointing up for the Ravens’ scoring potential this year, as Jackson could break fantasy football.
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Assuming Anthony Richardson starts every game:
He's a top-12 fantasy QB in 2023.
This shouldn't be disputed at all, BUT it will be.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 28, 2023
The Colts got their guy at fourth overall with the selection of the ridiculously gifted Richardson. Richardson couldn’t ask for a better offensive-minded head coach to guide his NFL career. Yes, the easy connection of Shane Steichen to Jalen Hurts‘ ascension isn’t wrong, but this is also the coach who tutored Justin Herbert in his rookie season.
The rushing ability for Richardson will be on full display this season which will give him an extremely high ceiling and floor in fantasy, but Steichen’s propensity to dial up downfield shots could give Richardson a top-five fantasy ceiling in his rookie season. Over the last two seasons, Jalen Hurts finished 14th and fourth in deep ball passing rate (minimum 20 deep attempts per PFF). Richardson’s been described as a “raw passer,” but there should be no dispute about his downfield passing skills. Last year among 148 quarterbacks with at least 20 deep attempts (per PFF), he ranked 20th in PFF deep passing grade and 30th in deep passer rating. Rushing ability. Deep passing. Yeah, I love Richardson’s outlook in Indy.
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
Not only did Bijan Robinson get picked in the top ten selections in the first round (as the RBs don’t matter crew cringes), but he also went to a team that will utilize him until his legs fall off. Last year the Falcons were second in neutral script rushing rate and first in red zone rushing rate. Robinson will be the engine of this offense. He’s a locked-in top-five fantasy running back for 2023. In my first 2023 running back rankings post-draft update, Robinson is the RB3 behind only Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
New Chargers WR Quentin Johnston's #ReceptionPerception profile.
– 74.8% success rate vs. man
– Came on a small handful of routes
– Middling vs zone/press
– Some hand concernsBrings the juice the Chargers need downfield and in the YAC game:https://t.co/gnXH03KeJy pic.twitter.com/OxSzloNPLS
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 28, 2023
Johnston was rumored to possibly fall out of the first round of the NFL Draft and into Day 2, so from that perspective, we could already make a fluid case for Johnston as a winner. Additionally, he finds himself tied to Justin Herbert, and Johnston walks away from Day 1 as a big-time winner.
The combination of the aging body of Keenan Allen and the brittle joints of Mike Williams (which combined for 23 games played last year) could leave Johnston as Herbert’s defacto number-one wide receiver at times in 2023. Even with those two veterans on the field, Johnston should immediately be the team’s field stretcher. Under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, this could be a bountiful role in 2023. In Dak Prescott‘s two full seasons under Moore, he finished fifth and seventh in deep ball attempts. Last year at TCU, Johnston ranked 23rd in deep receiving yards and 13th in deep receiving touchdowns (per PFF, minimum ten deep targets). If the stars align, Johnston could be a WR3/4 type this season in fantasy that explodes with a top-20 fantasy finish.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
Jordan Addison is going to fill that Robert Woods role well for the #Vikings in O’Connell’s offense. His alignment versatility fits alongside Jefferson and Hockenson. Exact type of complementary option MIN needed.
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) April 28, 2023
Jordan Addison should compete with T.J. Hockenson immediately to be the number two target in this passing attack behind Justin Jefferson. Addison should have no problem gobbling up volume on this fast-paced high-flying passing attack that ranked fifth and fourth in neutral pace and passing rate last season. This is as close to a dream landing spot for Addison as it gets to begin racking up fantasy production in his rookie season.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
The Bills were said to be looking for a replacement for Cole Beasley in the slot. That's where the connection to Josh Downs, who I believe they liked, was made. And the end answer here winds up being Dalton Kincaid, who'll be a big slot receiver, essentially, for them.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 28, 2023
Dalton Kincaid teamed up with Josh Allen for years to come. Sign me up now! Kincaid should be an immediate starter from Day 1 in the passing game. Yes, I know Dawson Knox remains on this roster, but if the team was happy with Knox’s production, they wouldn’t have invested first-round capital into a tight end that will earn his NFL paychecks in the receiving game. The Bills view Kincaid as their new slot weapon de jour, and rightfully so. Last year among all collegiate wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 slot targets, he was second in PFF receiving grade from the slot. If we pare this down to just tight ends, Kincaid ranked third in slot yards per route run (per PFF). My comp for Kincaid remains Travis Kelce. That type of lofty upside remains intact after landing with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Kincaid could be the number two option in this passing game behind Stefon Diggs in 2023.
NFL Draft: Round 1 Losers
Will Levis (QB – FA)
Will Levis in the green room pic.twitter.com/jQ0CMwBRIR
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 28, 2023
Sadly, the banana-eating mayo-infused coffee-ingesting Levis didn’t hear his name called on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. Levis entered the draft process as a polarizing prospect with wild snap-to-snap inconsistencies. Dropping into Day 2 of the NFL Draft doesn’t help alleviate any of those concerns or help his hit rate as a possible fantasy asset. At this point, Levis is clinging to the hope that one NFL team will take the leap in the second round because if he slips into Round 3, that could be the coffin nail for his dynasty value.
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
The Packers’ new signal caller better pray that the front office decides to infuse this depth chart with receiving weapons on Day 2, or it could get ugly this season. Green Bay pulled their usual shenanigans in round 1 by selecting Lukas Van Ness over a pass catcher, leaving Love with only Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs as viable receiving options outside of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the backfield. The Packers have three picks on Day 2, so there’s still hope they add another receiver and possibly a tight end.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
Brad Holmes almost breaks the table in excitement as he and Dan Campbell are glad to draft the versatile, explosive Jahmyr Gibbs #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/51bsgVqsMb
— Andrew Jones (@TWDTV1) April 28, 2023
I know what you are thinking. How did a running back drafted inside the top 12 picks in the NFL Draft end up on the loser list? Considering his weight, Gibbs projected workload in the NFL was already dicey. Now Gibbs has to compete with David Montgomery for red zone work and passing down snaps. Montgomery might not be the flashiest player, but last year he ranked 22nd in red zone touchdown conversion rate and tenth in yards per route run (per Playerprofiler.com). Even assuming Gibbs’ arrival puts D’Andre Swift on the bench, his volume and high-value touch outlook over the next two seasons is murky at best.
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)
Tyler Allgeier’s redraft and dynasty values hit rock bottom as soon as the Falcons turned in the card for Bijan Robinson. Allgeier’s rookie season was impressive, but this is the risk for Day 3 running backs in the NFL. The list of running backs that produce well in their rookie seasons or over their first few years in the league only to get squashed by the NFL Draft is long. Last year Michael Carter was in this exact spot last year, and Marlon Mack felt the same pain even further back in time. Allgeier is now regulated to handcuff status only.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Just got a text from @GenoSmith3,
following #Seahawks’ picking Jaxon Smith-Njigba: “Eliteeeeee”— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) April 28, 2023
This isn’t the landing spot Smith-Njigba truthers like myself wanted to see for his rookie season. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett now flank the former Ohio State standout weekly. Even with the best rose-colored glasses money can buy, this destination dings Smith-Njigba’s year-one target projection. While his redraft stock took a hit, his dynasty outlook remains strong. Smith-Njigba is a clear bet that his talent will enable him to earn targets at a decent clip in 2023 with an eye towards his sophomore season as a possible breakout campaign. The Seahawks could move on from Tyler Lockett in 2024 and save nearly ten million against the cap. I’ll fade Smith-Njigba in Redraft while continuing to invest heavily in him in dynasty formats.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
As amazing as the 2023 first round unfolded for Lamar Jackson, it was equally damning for Bateman. While Bateman has flashed immense talent in limited spurts, he has been dinged up just as much. After chirping back on social media to Eric Decosta’s comments about Baltimore’s receiver room, the team signed Odell Beckham and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. While Bateman is still only 23 and has two years left on his rookie deal to prove himself, the team’s insistence on throwing more money and draft capital at the wide receiver room doesn’t help Bateman’s prospects for targets in 2023 as the possible third or fourth option in the passing game.
2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles 
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