NFC Draft Grades (2023 NFL Draft)

And just like that, the 2023 NFL Draft is behind us. Let’s take a look at each team in the NFC and break down their picks. Here are my draft grades, rankings, and player comps for all of the NFC teams over the last three days.

• 2023 NFL Draft: AFC Draft Grades
• Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Primer: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Inside Offensive Linemen | Offensive Tackles | Inside Defensive Linemen | Linebackers | Cornerbacks | Safeties
• NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
• NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers
• NFL Draft Day 2 Winners & Losers

2023 NFL Draft: NFC Draft Grades

Carolina Panthers | Draft Grade: B-

The bulk of the import of the Panthers’ five-man class was an outcome decided in advance. But the Panthers made the right decision in taking QB Bryce Young at 1.1.

So often this spring, you heard about Young’s body size, how he’s an “outlier.” And I suppose that’s true. More topically and to the point, Young is an outlier in terms of brain size. The kid sees the field like Professor X from X-Men sees the universe. You aren’t goading Bryce Young into anything. If any of your coverage breaks down, he will make you pay dearly. Young will present a puzzle to NFL defenses that is utterly unique from what they’ve seen before.

I know that WR Jonathan Mingo was all the rage in the weeks leading up to the draft, and for that reason, I wasn’t surprised to see him taken in early-R2. But I can’t get on board with that price point. The movement Mingo’s exceptional pre-draft testing suggested was not apparent on his film. But I will say: His route-running chops opened my eyes at the Senior Bowl, and his QB last year, Jaxson Dart, left a metric ton of unrealized Mingo yards on the field.

Others were higher on Round 3 EDGE DJ Johnson than I was. But I appreciated Carolina’s value-shopping on Saturday, grabbing OG Chandler Zavala and S Jammie Robinson. The only questions about Zavala are medical-related. If his body holds up, how fun is it going to see him with OT Ikem Ekwonu again? Those two together were atomic bombs at NC State, cratering out their side of the line of scrimmage.

San Francisco 49ers | Draft Grade: F

One of my draft-grading philosophies is to not artificially penalize teams who have less draft equity. I see that as a cop-out. I try to judge the ball where it lies.

I say this to impress the point that San Francisco didn’t fail this draft because they previously traded their premium picks and had less to work with. The 49ers failed this draft because they did poorly in the nine non-premium slots they were selecting in. We saw a procession of reaches.

With two exceptions, LB Dee Winters and WR Ronnie Bell. One of Bell’s former coaches told me this spring that he will play in the NFL for a long time. I don’t disagree with that.

But outside of those two picks, San Francisco could have done a better job identifying values in the slots they were picking in. This felt like a myopic process, where every pick is a luxury pick and nothing is at stake. Perhaps the 49ers have entered the pre-Rams-Super-Bowl “f*** them picks” phase of their evolution.

New Orleans Saints | Draft Grade: C

Classic hit-it-down-the-fairway draft. Starting with a high-variance selection that was nonetheless qualitatively exactly that: I had Clemson DT Bryan Bresee, the No. 29 pick, exactly No. 29 on my board.

I didn’t love New Orleans’ Friday night. But I will say, contextually, that the Saints were able to get in on the edge-rushing run before the talent in that crop dropped off a shelf. With the depth of the running back class what it was, I’m not able to afford the same benefit of the doubt to using a top-75 pick on RB Kendre Miller.

However, the Saints bounced back with a very strong Saturday. That started at the opening bell with OL Nick Saldiveri. Regardless of whether the Saints view him as a tackle or a guard, Saldiveri was strong value at No. 93.

I also really liked the QB Jake Haener and WR AT Perry picks. Haener isn’t the next Drew Brees. Stop with that. But he could be the next Brock Purdy. Haener is small, and his arm lacks oomph. But he’s a leader who makes quick decisions and takes profits on the field. It wasn’t a surprise that Haener’s leaked S2 score was in the Purdy football-Mensa range.

The NFL apparently soured on Perry because of his mediocre agility. But he was an incredibly productive collegiate receiver who presents problems down the field with his 6-foot-10 wingspan and ball skills.

Arizona Cardinals | Draft Grade: D+

The NFL likes next year’s NFL Draft crop better than this one. And now Arizona has set itself up to gorge at that buffet by acquiring Houston’s 2024 R1, Tennessee’s 2024 R3, and Philadelphia’s 2024 R4.

As for the work in this year’s draft, the quantifiable stuff we’re here to discuss, I wasn’t as impressed. I like OT Paris Johnson Jr. But is there a big enough qualitative gap between him and OT Broderick Jones to justify giving up No. 34 and No. 168 (while getting back No. 81) to move up to get him?

The only pick in this class I really liked was made was WR Michael Wilson. Wilson may well end up as one of this class’ best receivers. That’ll depend on if he can kick the nagging-injury bug.

But Wilson has an extremely unique ability to slam on the breaks into route breaks and accelerate quickly out of them for a big receiver. That’ll play at the next level – with the standard Wilson caveat “if he can stay on the field.”

Atlanta Falcons | Draft Grade: C+

I wouldn’t use a top-10 pick on a running back – your path to recouping the value is precarious. That said, and to state the obvious, RB Bijan Robinson is a stud.

Per PFF charting dating back to 2014, Robinson is tied with Javonte Williams for the highest missed tackle rate (39%). In 2022, Robinson broke PFF’s single-season record with 104 missed tackles forced. He’s a slalom runner with creativity who puts the entire defense on a balancing platform with death-defying change-of-path machinations in the open field. Robinson will also greatly aid QB Desmond Ridder in the passing game.

OT Matthew Bergeron was a slight reach at No. 38, but I’m not going to quibble too much about that one – the tackle class dropped off significantly shortly after that.

The pick I loved of Atlanta’s class was CB ​​Clark Phillips in Round 4. Phillips is relegated to the slot in the NFL, but he’s gonna be a good one. A unanimous All-American in 2022 and the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Phillips will take care of any matchup in which he can’t be physically trump-carded.

Just ask Vikings R1 WR Jordan Addison. Addison needed the cast of Stranger Things to retrieve him from the Upside-Down after Phillips erased him from the face of the earth in the Pac-12 title game.

Green Bay Packers | Draft Grade: C-

Green Bay’s first-round pick was vintage Packers. EDGE Lukas Van Ness’ speed-to-power machinations are going to give NFC North offensive tackles headaches. After that, things got weird.

I hated the reach for TE Luke Musgrave in Round 2. Especially since a strong receiving tight end that I ranked 17 spots higher on my big board was still available. That would be Tucker Kraft… who the Packers incredibly picked 36 selections later! That pick was as strong as the Musgrave one was suspect.

Speaking of suspect, in-between, the Packers egregiously reached for WR Jayden Reed. Reed developed a small cult-like following during the pre-draft process. Green Bay apparently drank a cup when the Kool-Aid was getting passed around. Bill Simmons once proposed the concept of “press box hot.” That’s exactly what Reed was in this terrible receiver class. Normal year, nobody is disagreeing that he’s a Day 3 guy. But he got hotter and hotter as folks got a full gander at the ugly 2023 receiver offering.

I didn’t agree with many picks that came after that, but I liked Green Bay’s shots on WR Dontayvion Wicks and DT Karl Brooks. Both are unorthodox players whose utility wasn’t fully appreciated by the NFL for explicitly that reason.

Philadelphia Eagles | Draft Grade: A+

Classic Howie Roseman.

You want steals? You want Georgia Bulldog defenders in bunches? You want an Alabama prospect on offense? You want a buy-low trade for an on-the-outs veteran at a position of need? Howie’s got you!

Philly hit the jackpot in the first round. We knew that the Eagles were extremely interested in DT Jalen Carter. We just thought it was going to cost more for the Eagles to move up to acquire him.

Roseman was patient, and he was rewarded for it. Carter fell to No. 9, and Roseman chipped in a 2024 fourth-rounder to Chicago to move up one slot to get him, a pocket-change tax to block other suitors.

We also knew that Philly loved EDGE Nolan Smith. So much so that Smith was a popular mock-draft selection to the Eagles at Philly’s original No. 10 slot. But instead, Smith fell through the cracks – all the way to the Eagles’ slot at No. 30.

Twitter went wild! Roseman had added two Georgia first-round defenders to join their former college teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. On Saturday, Roseman shouted, “Are you not entertained?” (probably) as he submitted the card to add a fifth Bulldog defender, CB Kelee Ringo, to his homage to the nastiest collegiate defense of the past decade.

I was one of the lowest in the media on Ringo – but at No. 105? On athletic profile and theoretical upside alone, that’s a no-brainer.

Roseman didn’t want Alabama-bred Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Landon Dickerson on the other side of the field (along with Josh Jobe) to feel out-numbered by Georgia alums, so he popped Crimson Tide OT Tyler Steen in Round 3. Oh to be a fly on the wall at Philadelphia’s team hotel on a fall Saturday during an Alabama-Georgia game.

Pick-after-pick, Roseman matched value with need. With a class this good, it was almost an after-thought that Roseman stole RB D’Andre Swift from the Lions for a 2025 fourth-rounder after Detroit tanked the value of its trade asset by picking RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

Minnesota Vikings | Draft Grade: D+

Considering Minnesota’s poor cornerback room, it couldn’t have been easy to pass on CB Joey Porter Jr. at 1.23. But ultimately, the Vikings made the correct three-dimensional-chess call, calculating that the depth of the CB class and weakness of the WR class would present a superior prospect at the former when the team came back on the clock in Round 3.

The Vikings ended up trading down off that pick – swapping No. 87 to San Francisco for No. 102, No. 164 and No. 222 – to up its pick allotment from five to seven. In lieu of the team’s cap issues, that was sage. At No. 102, the Vikings took Mekhi Blackmon.

I believe the Vikings when they say they were going to take Blackmon at No. 87 – he’s a perfect fit for new DC Brian Flores’ uber-aggressive scheme. Blackmon fist-fights you off line, is sticky in man, and is an enthusiastic run defender who rarely misses tackles.

The Addison and Blackmon “USC special” couplet was qualitatively superior to, for instance, the alternate reality of CB Joey Porter Jr. and WR Charlie Jones had Minnesota chosen to walk that path.

Minnesota’s lack of equity and cap problems boxed them into a corner that they needed to continue to punch out of on Saturday. With one exception, I just didn’t see that.

I’m not a fan of either of the LSU defenders that the Vikings took. And there’s a 98% chance that the Vikings lit the No. 164 pick on fire when they took the wildly inconsistent QB Jaren Hall.

The one Day 3 pick I liked was RB DeWayne McBride. RB Dalvin Cook will almost assuredly not be on the 2023 roster. In a post-Dalvin world, McBride could surprise immediately. You don’t want McBride on the field on passing downs, but he’s a natural runner who is extremely difficult to get on the ground. McBride’s 36% career forced-missed-tackle rate trails only Bijan Robinson and Javonte Williams in PFF’s nine-year history.

Bears | Draft Grade: D

I couldn’t have taken OT Darnell Wright in the top-10, because I don’t think he can be a standout NFL left tackle. And I hated the DT Gervon Dexter Sr. and CB Tyrique Stevenson picks.

The Bears were in jeopardy of earning one of my “F” grades before a strong showing on Saturday. I loved the value they got at positions of need with RB Roschon Johnson and CB Terell Smith in particular.

Last year, when the Texans popped Dameon Pierce in Round 4, I tweeted: “Dameon Pierce is your darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate. He’s going to start immediately in Houston.” On Saturday, when Chicago popped Roschon Johnson in Round 4, I tweeted the exact same with Johnson/Chicago swapped in for Pierce/Houston.

Smith is an intriguing sleeper. He was a collection of athletic traits with no instincts prior to last year. But the light flipped on over the offseason and Smith was fabulous in 2022. Smith then tested like the freak Gophers coaches had forwarded him as. If Smith’s development arrow continues to point up, his selection will be looked back upon as highway robbery.

Cowboys | Draft Grade: F

I didn’t understand what the Cowboys were doing.

At the end of Round 1, they had a shot to plug their gaping tight end hole with either Sam LaPorta or Michael Mayer – worthy candidates for the slot. Instead, they reached for DT Mazi Smith, a supposed freak athlete who curiously passed on the agility drills in pre-draft testing.

Then, the next round, Dallas reached for his teammate, TE Luke Schoonmaker, who is raw as a receiver and has medical questions. Would you have preferred those two, or either LaPorta/Mayer and one of Zacch Pickens/Byron Young/Siaki Ika? Yeah, me too.

The rest of the picks were more of the same, reaching for prospects in slots that didn’t fit. It felt like Dallas went into each day with a plan to take specific positions in specific slots, and were unable to move off the plan to take advantage of the values dropping to them.

Seahawks | Draft Grade: C+

In my “talent added” metric, the Seahawks finished No. 5 in the NFL. But they spent the third-most equity to get there.

Still, how are you going to argue with the CB Devon Witherspoon and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba picks? I cannot. Witherspoon is one of my favorite corners to enter the NFL in my five years evaluating the draft. It’s a testament to how dominant Witherspoon is that the corner-length-obsessed Seahawks took him 1.5 in the longest cornerback class to ever enter the NFL.

Smith-Njigba is essentially exactly what this offense needed – a stud slot to take advantage of the space that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett open up. He’s going to level-up the offense.

I loved RB Zach Charbonnet as much as anyone – he was my RB2 – but boy was that a confusing pick. The Seahawks just took Kenneth Walker in Round 2 last year. The team’s brass explained in a presser that Charbonnet was awesome in the screen game. Which, yeah, agreed. But you’re not using the No. 52 pick to improve your screen game. You could have done that with a Day 3 specialist. So what gives?

I liked Seattle’s upside shot on athletic freak OG Anthony Bradford in Round 4. But I thought the Seahawks were inefficient with their other picks on Saturday. That, in conjunction with the EDGE Derick Hall mini-reach in Round 2, dinged the final grade.

Lions | Draft Grade: C

Have you ever seen a more “we-don’t-give-a-f***-what-you-think” class than this? The Lions made one of the most shocking selections of the past several drafts when they took RB Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.12. They did so after trading out of the 1.6 slot that could have purchased RB Bijan Robinson.

Six picks after Gibbs, the Lions threw another curveball, taking LB Jack Campbell. Campbell was one of my favorite players in this entire class. LB3 on many other boards around the industry, I had him LB1 with a bullet – and in the first-round of my last mock draft (to Buffalo).

Campbell will be a fabulous NFL linebacker – but man, that was aggressive. I would have advocated a trade-down that stayed ahead of Buffalo in Detroit’s shoes… but the Lions told the media they weren’t presented with any attractive trade-down possibilities for that pick.

After the Thursday wonkiness, I was prepared to kill Detroit in this column. But they kept ducking and weaving expectations. They started Friday with TE Sam LaPorta, who I beat the drum for all process. If he’d played in a different offensive environment than the rancid situation at Iowa, LaPorta may have been a first-rounder. He caught a ridiculous 30.2% of Iowa’s market share of receptions last season while converting two-thirds of his catches the past two years into first downs or touchdowns despite playing in an offense that last season finished No. 130 out of 131 FBS teams in scoring.

Next, the Lions stole S Brian Branch at No. 45. Switch the order that Gibbs and Branch were picked, and you jive the value of both slots on my board.

Early on Saturday, Detroit followed up the Gibbs pick by trading RB D’Andre Swift to the Eagles for a 2025 fourth-rounder. Swift is entering the last year of his contract. This opens the door for a Gibbs-David Montgomery platoon in 2023 that should be very strong.

I railed against the absurd idea of Hendon Hooker as a first-rounder all spring. But I can’t complain about where the Lions got him. That slot was almost smack-dab where I ranked him on my board.

Tampa Bay Bucs | Draft Grade: B-

This wasn’t a sexy class, but it has the potential to move the needle for a franchise that desperately needed a talent infusion.

DT Calijah Kancey is a havoc-wreaker. He doesn’t look like much off the bus, but every ounce of the athleticism he showed during the pre-draft process was apparent on tape. He’s got the agility and burst of a souped-up linebacker playing on the interior.

Speaking of athleticism, OL Cody Mauch moves as well as any offensive lineman in this class. He was a destructive force at left tackle in an NDSU running game that made great use of his mobility. Due to Mauch’s lack of length and inconsistent technique in pass-pro on the outside, I think his best fit in the NFL is at guard.

Either way, that was a good value pick. After it, outside of taking one of only two players in the draft who wasn’t amongst the 800-plus players I ranked before it (CB Josh Hayes), I thought Tampa Bay blended high-floor cost certainty and high-upside dart throws in appropriate slots.

Washington Commanders | Draft Grade: D-

I like CB Emmanuel Forbes fine. But in one of the deepest corner classes in years, what need was there to take him at No. 16? Washington apparently wasn’t concerned about his sub-170-pound frame. And that’s fine.

But what trump-card trait were they seeing that incited the urgency Forbes’ “ball skills”? Four of Forbes’ six picks last year were gift-wrapped on reps he had already lost.

Later, in a draft where safeties were falling, Washington watched Detroit steal the best of the entire bunch, Brian Branch, two spots before they ultimately reached for Jartavius Martin. And I like Martin! But not there.

Same story with the rest of the picks, with one exception. I did like Washington’s shot on Utah’s Braeden Daniels. He’s a sleight-but-athletic collegiate tackle whose game will translate to the interior.

Los Angeles Rams | Draft Grade: C-

The Rams didn’t have a Round 1 pick, but they made an incredible 14 picks anyway. They doubled-up picks with trade-downs twice, adding to the kitty. Los Angeles’ hollowed-out roster could have used an exceptional draft.

The Rams didn’t get it. But the Rams’ strategy of eschewing upside for cost-certainty is likely to convert the lion’s share of this haul into roster cogs. That seemed intentional. Due in large part to the specific roster it is now joining, it is also going to provide multiple immediate starters, most prominently TCU’s Steve Avila, who is already carved into the 2023 starting lineup in stone.

The Stetson Bennett pick at No. 128 was ludicrous in lieu of the help needed elsewhere. But the Rams got serious late.

Of note, OT Warren McClendon, WR Puka Nacua, and CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson could all see the field as rookies. This is the perfect situation for Nacua – an underrated prospect with a diverse skillset and the ability to play both inside and outside. Sean McVay knows how to use guys like this.

New York Giants | Draft Grade: B+

The Giants were so desperate for receiving help that, earlier in the process, a sportsbook dropped a prop that they’d take a first-round receiver at even-money odds against every other position.

The Giants, then, had to be heartsick when the consensus top-four WR went consecutively directly in front of their 1.25 pick. But when the NFL Draft gives you lemons, you need to make lemonade. So New York got to squeezin’.

The combination of that receiver run and the NFL artificially deflating the value of non-Devon Witherspoon first-round corners due to the depth of the class presented an unexpected opportunity: CB Deonte Banks, who had been mocked higher all spring, at 1.25. The Giants simply accepted the gift, plugging a different roster hole.

In Round 2, with that receiver hole still a glowing neon light, the Giants returned to the clock – with no obvious receiver to select. Once again, they didn’t panic or reach. Instead, they opened another present the NFL had gift-wrapped for them – C John Michael Schmidt. It was not a well-kept secret that the center-desperate Giants loved Schmidt during this process.

In mock drafts that mimicked the top-four-receivers-off-the-board-by-25 scenario that actually happened, Schmidt was a popular 1.25 pick for New York. Instead, the Giants saw the class’ best center fall into their lap a full round later.

In Round 3, the Giants finally needed to scratch that receiver itch. They took WR Jalin Hyatt. I wouldn’t have gone in that direction, but it wasn’t an egregious reach. Hyatt only brings one trick to the Big Apple, but it’s once-you-pop-the-top-you-can’t-stop neat one.

Day 3 wasn’t as much of a bonanza, but I did like New York’s pick of RB Eric Gray. Gray is small and isn’t an elite athlete, but he’s got a versatile skillset that stresses defenses. A similar back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, went in the first round not so long ago.

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