Touchdowns are overly inflated in fantasy football. In addition to this, too many fantasy managers chase touchdown numbers from the previous year, thinking they are likely to repeat similar numbers. However, rarely does this happen. Some players get on a hot streak and become more efficient at scoring touchdowns, others do the opposite.
Touchdown rates vary from year to year. Therefore, it is important to highlight which players are likely to negatively regress to the mean when looking at potential touchdown production.
I have built a touchdown regression model that is reasonably successful at identifying players that are likely to either positively or negatively regress back to the mean. In this article from 2022, I predicted six players who would see a reduction in touchdown totals in 2022. All six saw regression back to the mean.
This year, I have included 9 players who all should see a drop in their touchdown rate and, therefore, their touchdown numbers in 2023 if all other things remain equal.
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Negative Regression Touchdown Candidates (2023 Fantasy Football)
Jamaal Williams (RB – NO)
Actual Touchdowns: 17
Expected Touchdowns: 10.37
Difference: +6.63 Touchdowns
This one is a pretty easy prediction and will not come as a shock to anyone. However, I have left it in here just to show the unprecedented rate at which Jamaal Williams scored touchdowns in 2022. To finish as a running back with nearly 7 touchdowns over the expected total is a testament to the incredible run he put together and the way he was used by the Detroit Lions in their offense.
However, the Lions decided not to pay Williams, and he moved to New Orleans in free agency. His role is likely to change, and he will probably not get the same opportunities and usage he saw in Detroit in 2022. Even with the potential for Kamara to be banned for 4 to 6 games in 2023, it is unlikely Williams will see 262 carries or anywhere near that with the Saints.
Therefore, I expect Williams to regress even more toward the mean of 9 touchdowns as his workload will decrease in 2023.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
Actual Touchdowns: 12
Expected Touchdowns: 8.23
Difference: +3.77 Touchdowns
This particular prediction is based on the Dallas Cowboys either drafting a running back early in the NFL draft to replace the departed Ezekiel Elliot or signing a back like Leonard Fournette or someone else to come in and fill the role. If Pollard remains the only significant back on the roster, his touchdowns are unlikely to regress due to the increased workload. This model looks at players retaining a similar role in 2023 to the one they had in 2022, with identical usage.
Pollard was highly efficient in an offense that was also highly efficient in 2022. There were opportunities created for Pollard to take advantage of and score at an overly efficient rate. But with the departure of Kellen Moore as Offensive Coordinator and Ezekiel Elliot, who did a lot of the heavy lifting, it is unlikely that Pollard can maintain this touchdown rate in 2023. However, the Dallas backfield still has some question marks that need to be answered before we know for sure.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Actual Touchdowns: 18
Expected Touchdowns: 14.60
Difference: +3.40 Touchdowns
Austin Ekeler propelled himself to the RB1 overall in PPR scoring due to his overly efficient touchdown rate. As a result, he either wants to be paid again or traded. He requested a trade on the eve of free agency, and at the time of writing, that request has yet to be fulfilled. Ekeler could be playing for a different team in 2023, which would mean a potential change in his usage.
Assuming Ekeler is on the Chargers in 2023, he is still likely to see a reduction from his 18 touchdowns in 2022. This should not put you off selecting him in the first round of your drafts. However, be wary that based on his current usage, he is likely to score closer to 14 or 15 touchdowns in 2023. After all, Ekeler overproduced in 2021 with 20 touchdowns. He had 35 more touches in 2022, with 2 fewer touchdowns than in 2021.
All that being said, Ekeler will likely still be a touchdown leader in the position in 2023.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Actual Touchdowns: 9
Expected Touchdowns: 3.35
Difference: +5.65 Touchdowns
This might be the safest prediction my model has based on current usage. Christian Watson had 41 receptions and 7 carries, yet managed 9 touchdowns. That touchdown rate is completely unsustainable, which is why he has such a huge difference in touchdowns expected.
The fact that Watson managed to score 8 of his 9 touchdowns in a four-game stretch before the bye in 2022 highlights this further. It was the ultimate example of a receiver riding a crest of a wave. In the four games after his bye week, he failed to find the endzone again.
Watson might receive more targets and have more receptions in 2023, but it is extremely unlikely he will be as potent in scoring touchdowns. Ignore Watson’s 2022 touchdown total when deciding whether to draft him or not in 2023.
Davante Adams (WR – LV)
Actual Touchdowns: 14
Expected Touchdowns: 9.17
Difference: +4.83 Touchdowns
Davante Adams is an elite wide receiver. He is likely to be selected within the first two rounds of fantasy drafts and this should not put you off that. However, when considering whether to select Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams, my touchdown regression model has Hill due for positive regression to the mean that is almost equal to Adams’ negative regression (4.72 touchdowns). That is a 9.55 touchdown swing or a 57 fantasy point swing.
Adams is still an elite wide receiver option. He is likely to overproduce by a touchdown or two in most seasons. However, it is unlikely, especially with a change in quarterback, that the Raiders’ lead receiver will overproduce by close to 5 touchdowns in 2023. It is also unlikely he sees much of an increase in his usage in 2023. He is still worthy of a high selection but maybe select him closer to WR5 than WR2 overall.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
Actual Touchdowns: 7
Expected Touchdowns: 2.86
Difference: +4.14 Touchdowns
Jahan Dotson caught a touchdown pass on 20% of his receptions in 2022. That is a ridiculous touchdown rate that will not be repeated in 2023.
While it is unlikely that Dotson will be on your radars when it comes to draft targets in 2023, there is no doubt that someone in your league will see his fantasy points and touchdowns and select him as a late-round flyer. Don’t be that person and waste the draft selection. Dotson will not catch a touchdown on 20% of his receptions in a season ever again.
Taysom Hill (TE – NO)
Actual Touchdowns: 9
Expected Touchdowns: 0.73
Difference: +8.27 Touchdowns
It is difficult for a model to quantify Taysom Hill. Because he’s a gadget player with specific plays schemed up for him, he is always going to overachieve on touchdowns. However, with the team moving in a new direction in 2023 at quarterback and with Hill entering his age-33 season, we will probably start to see fewer gadget plays.
Although Hill won’t be on anyone’s radar come draft season, he is one to keep an eye on for waiver wires this season. Having said that, be prepared for less production from Hill in 2023, but don’t be surprised if he overperforms in the touchdown column again. Watch out for the reduction in volume and production for Hill, as it is likely they will try and use Juwan Johnson more in the red zone.
George Kittle (TE – SF)
Actual Touchdowns: 11
Expected Touchdowns: 4.89
Difference: +6.11 Touchdowns
It was great to see George Kittle showcase his ability in 2022 after a couple of injury-riddled years. However, similar to Dotson, Kittle caught a touchdown pass on 18.3% of his receptions this past year. That is not sustainable, and the number will drop in 2023. Kittle managed to inflate his numbers with four two-touchdown games, and two of those games were against the Arizona Cardinals.
Kittle is an elite tight end option. However, many will look at his touchdown number and overdraft him. Do not make that mistake. While it would be nice to see Kittle get more than 86 targets and 60 receptions in 2023, it’s not going to skyrocket much more than that. Even with an extra 10 receptions in 2023, he won’t reach anywhere near the 11 touchdowns he scored in 2022. So beware if you are looking to spend a second, third, or fourth-round pick on Kittle in the hope that he returns double-digit touchdowns in 2023, as it is highly unlikely he will.
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)
Actual Touchdowns: 7
Expected Touchdowns: 3.43
Difference: +3.57 Touchdowns
The other tight end in New Orleans also makes the touchdown regression candidate list. Although Johnson didn’t overachieve nearly as much as Taysom Hill, he did manage to double his expected touchdown total in 2022. There are some reasons for this; a lack of alternative targets due to injury and a decrease in workload for Alvin Kamara meant Johnson received more higher-value targets than perhaps he can expect in 2023.
However, Johnson is still the tight end to roster in New Orleans. He is receiving an upgrade in quarterback in 2023 in the form of Derek Carr, and he has shown he can be a valuable weapon in this offense. But in order for him to return similar touchdown numbers in 2023, he will need more targets, more receptions, and more high-value targets.
Another indicator of touchdown regression with Johnson is that he scored touchdowns on 5 of his 11 targets in the red zone. With only 7 receptions, it is unlikely Johnson will be that clinical in 2o23. However, it would be great to see more red zone targets, given how clinical he was in 2022, and that could mean more touchdowns. Or, at the minimum, a return of a similar amount. But, it would take an adjustment in usage and volume for this to happen.
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.