NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Monday (4/24)

I’m super excited about this slate. We have two critical Game 4s to discuss, and it feels like the winner of these games will win these series’. The Miami-Milwaukee one has been a shock so far, but it would be tough to bet against the Bucks if they return home with a 2-2 series. The Los Angeles-Memphis series has been one of the most exciting, and we can’t wait to see how Dillon Brooks is treated in that hostile environment.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

MIL at MIA (MIL -5.5) O/U: 217.5

MEM at LAL (LAL -5) O/U: 221

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) Questionable
• Tyler Herro (hand) OUT
• Victor Oladipo (knee) OUT
• Ja Morant (hand) Probable
• Brandon Clarke (Achilles) OUT
• Steven Adams (knee) OUT
• Jimmy Butler (leg) Probable
• Dennis Schroder (foot) Probable
• Anthony Davis (injury prone) Probable
• LeBron James (old) Probable

Core Plays

Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $10,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
This is one of those situations where the pricing doesn’t add up. A superstar like this should never have a $2,000 discrepancy, especially with how AD is performing right now. The All-Star has scored at least 50 DraftKings points in nine of his last 11 games, generating a 57-point average in that span. He’s also mauled Memphis throughout the year, scoring at least 62 DK points in four of their five meetings. That’s no surprise since the Grizzlies are missing Adams and Clarke.

Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
We weren’t so sure how Morant would look with his hand issue, but his 45 points, nine rebounds, and 13 assists in Game 4 have us excited. Those 79 DraftKings points marked one of the best outings of his career, and we have to assume Ja will be locked in as ever with the Griz looking at a 2-1 deficit in the series. It’s far from shocking since LA owns a 26th OPRK against opposing guards, with Morant maintaining a 54-point average against them this year.

Cash Game Considerations

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $9,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Jimmy Buckets was playing on one leg during Game 3, but he put on a show. The perennial All-Star finished that gem with 47 DraftKings points, despite sitting in the fourth quarter. That’s not far off of his recent form, with JB averaging 46 DK points per game across his last 24 outings. What we love about him in these playoffs is that he’s more locked in than ever, playing 40-45 minutes a game.

Jaren Jackson Jr.(PF/C – MEM): $8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
It’s strange to call JJJ a cash game option, but that’s what he is in this sort of role. The Defensive Player of the Year was one of the best per-minute producers in the regular season and is now playing 40 minutes a game in these playoffs. That bump is no surprise since Adams and Clarke are both out, with Jackson scoring at least 36 fantasy points in 13 of his last 16 games. He’s also got a 44-point average in that span and could be looking at a season-high in minutes in this must-win game.

GPP Targets

D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG – MIN): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
D-Lo has taken a lot of crap, but this guy is too good to be sitting around $6,000. This point guard has scored at least 35 DK points in two of three games in this series, which is right on par with his 34-point average in the regular season. All of that makes the pricing hard to understand, especially since D-Lo is averaging 32 DK points per game in six matchups with Memphis.

Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $4,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
The Playoffs are the time for veterans to thrive. Lowry has made a career of being a great postseason player, and it looks like Miami will lean on him with Herro and Oladipo both injured. That allowed Lowry to play 27 minutes in Game 3, scoring 25 DK points in that expanded role. He also had 49 fantasy points in a play-in game, and it’s hard to believe he’s sitting below $5K with so much in his favor. It’s risky, but Lowry is the best GPP play below $5,000.

Value Plays

Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Bro-Lo has struggled in this series, but he’s tough to fade around $6,000. The big man has a bounceback season with 32 DK points per game, regularly sitting above $7K on both sites. That’s awesome since he should see an expanded role here, locked into 35 minutes and 15-20 shots in this must-win game. We’ve also seen Bro-Lo score at least 35 fantasy points in three of his last five outings, and Milwaukee needs another one of those here.

Dillon Brooks (SG/SF – MEM): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
This could be a disaster, but Brooks is still playing a huge role for the Grizzlies. This feisty forward is regularly playing 35 minutes while taking double-digit shots. There aren’t many $5K players with that sort of role, especially ones that averaged 25 DK points per game in the regular season. DB has to be as motivated as anyone after his Game 3 antics, and we’re going to bet on a bounceback game against a lackluster 24th-ranked Lakers defense.

Advantageous Pricing

Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $10,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel

Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $9,600 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel

Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL): $10,400 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel

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