It’s a great afternoon for some MLB action. Most of today’s games are during the afternoon. Thus, the main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 10 games, beginning at 1:10 pm ET. So, today’s picks will feature players from the 10-game slate.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching isn't plentiful, despite the slate size. Nevertheless, a lefty in a good matchup and pitcher-friendly park is a safe option. A long-time ace is riskier than usual and profiles as a high-upside GPP pick. The third-ranked pitcher has a cushy matchup and good park factors to support him today.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Justin Steele (CHC) at OAK
Steele broke out last year and is pitching well in 2023. According to FanGraphs, he has a 1.42 ERA, 3.03 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 8.3 BB%, 26.4 K% and 29.0 CSW% in three starts, totaling 19.0 innings.
He'll take the bump at the Oakland Coliseum this afternoon, which is good for two reasons. First, it has the sixth-lowest park factor for runs (0.892). Second, Steele is facing the Athletics. Oakland's projected hitters don't have a substantial track record against lefties, and none have had an ISO above .180 against southpaws since 2021. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Cubs are -172, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Thus, Steele is the most appealing option in cash games today.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) vs. SF
Rogers is mediocre, with some positives. The lefty's 4.20 ERA this season is representative of the quality of his work in three starts, evidenced by his 3.85 xERA and 4.27 xFIP. Thankfully, the lefty has a dreamy matchup today.
The Giants are tied for 28th in wRC+ (56) against southpaws, striking out at a staggering 29.8% clip this season. Rogers' 4.55 ERA in 128.2 innings at home in his career hasn't been anything to write home about. However, his 3.79 xFIP was more flattering, and his 26.6 K% was stellar. Additionally, the game's total is only 8.0 runs, and the Marlins are -105. So, it's nearly a pick 'em, and the total is low. Rogers isn't safe, but his combination of production, matchup and salary relative to his peers make him a rock-solid SP2 at DK. He's also a useful tournament pick on FD.
GPP Recommendation:
Max Scherzer (NYM) at LAD
Scherzer hasn't been a dominant force for the Mets this year. Instead, his fastball is down a tick, and he's sporting a 4.41 ERA, 4.46 xERA and 5.32 xFIP in three starts, lasting 16.1 innings. This is also his first start after having his turn pushed back because of back/side soreness. However, Scherzer threw without an issue since having his start pushed back, providing a reason to believe he'll be fine today.
It's not all doom and gloom for Scherzer. This season, the righty's 13.1 SwStr% is 2.0% higher than the league average. So, he's not having any issues with missing bats. The Dodgers are a tricky matchup for him. However, they've also struck out in 26.2% of their plate appearances against righties this season. As a result, Scherzer has substantial upside for strikeouts and a high ceiling befitting tournament use. The percentage of rosters he's on could be depressed slightly if gamers opt to take a wait-and-see approach or decide to avoid him at his salary in a suboptimal matchup. Regardless, Scherzer's upside is desirable for tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
Madison Bumgarner has a 7.90 ERA, 8.56 xERA and 7.11 xFIP in three starts this year. Yikes. The veteran lefty has also walked 11 batters, hit one and struck out only eight in 13.2 innings. Bumgarner is forging toward getting removed from the rotation or designated for assignment. The Cardinals can hasten the process for the eventual change today. St. Louis has seven projected starters with at least a 124 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021, and only one hitter has had a sub-100 wRC+. So, they have high-end talent and depth. The sky's the limit against a washed-up pitcher today.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/PIT -107
The Pirates will enjoy another game in MLB's hitting paradise. Moreover, they'll face a terrible pitcher. Austin Gomber has an 8.16 ERA, 5.69 xERA, 5.59 xFIP and allowed 2.51 HR/9 in three starts this year. Colorado's bullpen is also below average. So, Pittsburgh's offensive potential won't dry up after Gomber gets the hook. As a result, the Pirates can light the scoreboard up from start to finish.
- Paul Goldschmidt is a nightmare for lefties. Since 2021, the reigning NL MVP has had a .462 OBP, .336 ISO and 221 wRC+.
- Nolan Arenado is a lefty killer, too. He's had a .331 OBP, .328 ISO and 151 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since 2021.
- Rodolfo Castro has had a .338 OBP, .306 ISO and 149 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the majors in 2021.
- First, Tommy Edman is the leadoff hitter for St. Louis. So, he's in a high-upside spot against Bumgarner. Second, he's had a .326 OBP, .208 ISO and 124 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Teoscar Hernandez is a grossly mispriced value pick at FD. The slugging outfielder has had a .372 OBP, .373 ISO and 192 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Connor Joe is a pleasant surprise for the Pirates this season. He has a .396 OBP, .262 ISO and 155 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances. In addition, Joe was a handful for southpaws at Coors Field when he was on the Rockies in 2021 and 2022. In 109 plate appearances against lefties at Coors Field while on the Rockies, he had a .358 OBP, .200 ISO, .360 wOBA and 102 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Cardinals are deep and have a sweet blend of high-salaried studs and affordable picks. So, they're my preferred stack in all game types. Gamers should also consider using Goldy and Arenado on rosters that they don't stack the Red Birds. As a result, the other hitting spots must be filled with bargain options or close-to-bargain choices.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
