Tonight’s main MLB DFS slate begins at 7:07 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a sizable slate, including nine games. Today’s primer highlights four pitchers, two stacks, core studs and values/punts for tonight’s MLB DFS action.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher tonight tied up tonight's opponent on April 13. He'll take a crack at dazzling against them again this time. A pair of youngsters pitching against each other are second and third on the table. One is an excellent target as the SP2 at DK in cash games. The other is a high-upside tournament pick. The final highlighted pitcher has interesting underlying data.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. NYY
Ryan visited Driveline in the offseason and tweaked his arsenal, changing his slider and adding a splitter to his repertoire. The results have spoken for themselves. Per FanGraphs, Ryan has a 3.24 ERA, 2.48 xERA, 3.06 SIERA, 0.76 WHIP, 4.2 BB%, 30.5 K% and 28.0 CSW% in four starts spanning 25.0 innings.
Ryan has pitched at least 6.0 innings in all of his starts this year, struck out 10 twice, six once and had three quality starts. In addition, he dominated the Yankees in New York on April 13, holding them to one run on three hits, zero walks and 10 strikeouts in 7.0 innings. Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo have pop, but the rest of the Bronx Bombers' lineup options lack power against right-handed pitching. So, according to Betting Pros, the Twins are -115, and the game's total is just 7.0 runs. And as a result, Ryan is the best pitcher pick in all game types.
Griffin Canning (LAA) vs. OAK
Sadly, Canning has a 4.65 xERA and 4.78 xFIP in two starts totaling 10.1 innings this season. However, he's outproduced his ERA estimators, spinning a 3.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Canning also has a career-best of 7.3 BB% and 31.2 CSW% in the early going this season. He's also averaged a career-high 94.2 miles per hour on his heater while dialing back its usage in favor of more curves, sliders and changeups.
Thus, Canning has some intriguing numbers in his profile. Additionally, the A's are a Charmin-soft matchup. Oakland is 25th in wRC+ (85) and has a 24.8 K% against righties this year. Finally, the Angels are -184.
GPP Recommendations:
Mason Miller (OAK) at LAA
Miller has a jaw-dropping heater and had a promising start in his big-league debut last week. The young righty had five strikeouts and a 27.2 CSW% in 4.1 innings against the Cubs. However, Miller also allowed two runs, walked one batter and hit another. So, it wasn't a flawless start.
Additionally, Miller was limited to 81 pitches, and the A's might exercise extreme caution with their prized prospect. Still, the Angels are 20th in wRC+ (94) against righties and have a 23.3 K% against them. As a result, Miller can provide value to DFS gamers at his bargain salary, even in a short start.
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. CWS
Berrios was a disaster in 2022. And he has a 6.23 ERA in four starts this season. Therefore, it might be tough for gamers to trust Berrios in DFS. And they shouldn't necessarily trust him, but he has some eye-catching underlying data.
First, Berrios's 3.54 xFIP and 3.63 SIERA are the third-lowest marks among tonight's probable pitchers. Second, the righty's 30.6 CSW% is the second-highest tonight, too. Further, Berrios's 4.4 BB% and 23.3 K% are rock-solid. The fly in the ointment is Berrios's 39.1 LOB%, far lower than his career mark (71.2 LOB%). Regression for his left-on-base percentage would do Berrios wonders.
Fortunately, the matchup is good, and half of the betting info is also. The White Sox are 21st in wRC+ (93) against righties. And the Blue Jays are -195. Yet, the game's total of 9.5 runs speaks to the risk of using Berrios. Nevertheless, gamers should embrace the risk in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (Oracle Park)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Giants haven't formally announced a starter at the time of writing. However, Sean Manaea is projected to get the ball for San Francisco. St. Louis's lefty-killing lineup should be licking their chops in anticipation of a tasty cupcake tonight. Manaea has a 6.60 ERA, 8.07 xERA, 5.31 xFIP and allowed 2.40 HR/9 in 15.0 innings this season. Meanwhile, the Red Birds are second in wRC+ (152) against left-handed pitchers this year. Moreover, seven of St. Louis's projected starters have had at least a 131 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021.
- Home (American Family Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/LAD -225
Spencer Turnbull missed the entire 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Sadly, he hasn't recaptured his pre-surgery form. In four starts spanning 18.1 innings this year, Turnbull has had a 7.85 ERA, 6.52 xERA and 5.60 xFIP. The righty also has an unsightly 1.44 K/BB. Turnbull hasn't completed 6.0 innings in any starts this year and will give way to a lousy bullpen. Thus, the Brewers have a cushy matchup in which they can shine.
- Nolan Arenado isn't having a banner year at the dish by his standards. Still, he crushes lefties. In 264 plate appearances against them since 2021, Arenado has had a .324 ISO and 151 wRC+.
- Willson Contreras is hitting well for the Red Birds. Yet, his expected stats are even better. And, like Arenado, he feasts on lefties. Contreras has had a .347 OBP, .294 ISO and 142 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021.
- Paul Goldschmidt is the best hitter choice at FD. However, there's a compelling case to save salary on the following core stud at DK. Since 2021, Goldy has had a .459 OBP, .333 ISO and 219 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
- Rowdy Tellez is a nifty alternative to Goldschmidt at DK. The left-handed slugger has had a .316 ISO and 128 wRC+ in 314 plate appearances against righties at American Family Field while on the Brewers.
- Jeff McNeil has a dreamy matchup tonight. Josiah Gray has coughed up a .377 OBP, .563 SLG and .401 wOBA to left-handed batters since last season. Conversely, McNeil has had a 128 wRC+ against righties since 2021. And McNeil has a .418 OBP and 141 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances this year.
- Dylan Carlson hasn't lived up to his prospect billing. Nevertheless, he's handled the short side of a platoon with aplomb. Carlson's had a .379 OBP and 144 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Tommy Edman is another lefty killer for the Cards and sits atop their lineup against southpaws. Since 2021, he's had a .334 OBP, .219 ISO and 131 wRC+ against lefties. Edman's having a good year at the dish this season and can swipe bags. He stole 30 bases in 2021, 32 in 2022 and has had two this season.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Cardinals are the top stack and the best source of offense tonight as long as Manaea starts. Additionally, the Brewers are a fun GPP stack against a lackluster starter. The Mets aren't highlighted as a stack, but McNeil is an excellent pick, and the same is true for Brandon Nimmo.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
